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China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

japannews.yomiuri.co.jp

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Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#81

Post by red-iron-pine »

f6v wrote: post #68
moose_man wrote: post #2

"China is estimated to hold an about 84% share of the global market in neodymium magnets and an over 90% interest in samarium cobalt magnets. Japan, meanwhile, has about 15% of the neodymium magnet market and a less-than-10% share of that for samarium cobalt. If China bans the export of such technologies, it would be difficult for the United States and Europe, which do not traditionally manufacture rare earth magnets…

> This is not normal decoupling, we're in a full on economic war. I can see this as a response to USA banning China from accessing top chip technologies.

A decade or two too late, IMO. They haven't, nor ever likely will, respect IP yet believe the rest of the world will respect theirs.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#82

Post by edgyquant »

dmix wrote: post #75
anonymouskimmer wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Possible access to, and control of, most of the world's top chip manufacturing node fabs. > other than nationalistic fervor And as you said, this. Jingoism can be used to bolster those in power. I don't know that Xi could use this boost at this point in his career, but as he seems to want to be Chairman-for-life, he may need it eventually.

There is no scenario where that is a worthy trade off for the immense costs.

According to whom?

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#83

Post by AnimalMuppet »

causi wrote: post #72
sohex wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does China actually stand to gain by invading Taiwan? Any kind of real analysis based in anything other than nationalistic fervor or fear mongering seems to indicate that they're better served by the status quo.

China the nation stands to gain nothing. Chairman Xi stands to gain, or rather keep , a tremendous amount of power. Taiwan as an independent country flies in the face of party propaganda and official PRC policy.

This. Xi has made annexing Taiwan, essentially, a test of the CCP's legitimacy as ruler of China. If he fails, it's a huge loss of face, for him personally and for the CCP as a whole. Whether their power would survive that loss of face is not something they want to experimentally determine.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#84

Post by dmix »

rnk wrote: post #52
sohex wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does China actually stand to gain by invading Taiwan? Any kind of real analysis based in anything other than nationalistic fervor or fear mongering seems to indicate that they're better served by the status quo.

It's nationalistic political ideology. I'm sure the famous Taiwan semiconductor foundries would be destroyed in any invasion. China wants to finally wipe out that resistance to them.

Wiping out resistance in Taiwan… by building a swath of new uber-enemies among all of the other surrounding countries.

There’s really no positive outcome for taking Taiwan unless in 10-20yrs+ China gets out of their recent economic rut, starts rapidly growing again, and actually starts threatening not only the US but the western hegemony as a whole. Beyond just talking tough and isolating their economy, but by going to the next level of being an economic superpower that could sustain such a blow and build strong partnership with other powerful countries.

Or if other partner countries in SEA, mid east, South America, Africa, India also grow rapidly and become far stronger power players and realign towards China.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#85

Post by throwawaymaths »

r00fus wrote: post #58
908B64B197 wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's the real issue: China has been dumping rare earth metals and magnets at ridiculously low prices for decades (and polluting their country). This had the effect of making mining and refining these metals unprofitable in the west (why pay the huge price of pollution when the Chinese will contaminate their ground water below costs?). This doesn't mean the west can't scale up prospection and innovation to have clea…

The fact that the US Govt didn't see this as a national security issue and act accordingly (consequently doing something to prop up local industry) is the real problem. China is playing chess while we're playing checkers.

What? The usg did exactly this.

https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2020/10/01/trump-execut....

Despite how it sounds, the chief difficulty with rare earths is 1) how much of a pain in the ass isolation is, and 2) how much you're willing to tolerate water pollution in the process (or how much $ you're willing to pay to clean up the effluvium).

In the short term a Chinese ban on rare earths just means a hit to the pocketbooks,not a regression to the industrial age. In the long term, it's just accelerating science -> engineering, as there are very good rare earth alternatives in the "late research" phases and even if none of them pan out the methodology to scale up extraction is publically known, and solvable.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#86

Post by edgyquant »

FpUser wrote: post #57
SllX wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just prior to 9/11 or are you talking about the period between 1989 and 9/11?

I see it with my own eyes that after 9/11 things are getting worse. Not sure how it is not clear from my previous answer

That users point is that the first half of the Cold War was way more authoritarian and so pre-9/11 is not a benchmark in itself

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#87

Post by red-iron-pine »

ren_engineer wrote: post #30
moose_man wrote: post #2

"China is estimated to hold an about 84% share of the global market in neodymium magnets and an over 90% interest in samarium cobalt magnets. Japan, meanwhile, has about 15% of the neodymium magnet market and a less-than-10% share of that for samarium cobalt. If China bans the export of such technologies, it would be difficult for the United States and Europe, which do not traditionally manufacture rare earth magnets…

plenty of people have been warning about this for years with regards to the push towards renewable energy and electric cars. China makes 70-80% of the components of solar panels globally. the idea that manufacturing is somehow low value and "services" are what developed economies should focus on is one of the dumbest concepts in human history. It will take the US decades to rebuild their manufacturing base

The top 3 manufacturers in the world are: China (by a lot) then Germany, then the US.

And of them, the US has far, far better access to natural resources (admittedly, having to lean on Canada).

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#88

Post by edgyquant »

FpUser wrote: post #41
verdverm wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We've been in Cold War 2 for a while. It's hard to see the other two options as better alternatives. (hot war & capitulation) The West learned a lot during the first cold war and will outlast. Authoritarianism has a problem with corruption and not telling the leader the truth of reality.

>"The West learned a lot during the first cold war and will outlast." During the CWI (ha I just coined the new Cold War I term) we did not get hi-tech stuff from the opponent. In CWII we are not that lucky and have no immediate replacement for many things. I am afraid if this thing really gets up to speed we a heading for disaster. That the other side suffers as well or even worse is no consolation.

What high tech stuff do we get from China?

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#89

Post by edgyquant »

red-iron-pine wrote: post #87
ren_engineer wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

plenty of people have been warning about this for years with regards to the push towards renewable energy and electric cars. China makes 70-80% of the components of solar panels globally. the idea that manufacturing is somehow low value and "services" are what developed economies should focus on is one of the dumbest concepts in human history. It will take the US decades to rebuild their manufacturing base

The top 3 manufacturers in the world are: China (by a lot) then Germany, then the US. And of them, the US has far, far better access to natural resources (admittedly, having to lean on Canada).

This is false, the US is second and Japan third

https://www.brookings.edu/research/global-manufacturing-scor...

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#90

Post by AnimalMuppet »

barelysapient wrote: post #16
jmclnx wrote: post #7

I read "Rare Earths" are nor really rare. But the article did say extracting these elements cheaply causes a lot of environmental damage, which as we know, China is perfectly fine with. I also read the US is close to opening a "mining" site for Rear Earths, but not sure where or for what elements.

California had a very large RE mine until it suffered a toxic waste spill and closed in 2002. [1] 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mountain_Pass_mine#:~:text=The... .

"Mountain Pass was acquired out of bankruptcy in July 2017 with the goal of reviving America's rare-earth industry.[16][17][18][19] MP Materials resumed mining and refining operations in January 2018"
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