AI won't steal your job, people leveraging AI will • Hacker News Board

Re: AI won't steal your job, people leveraging AI will

#421

Post by lanstin » Mon, Apr 03, 2023, 6:58 PM UTC

timr wrote: post #230

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please give some examples then. I've found the GPT-4 version to be remarkably accurate, and when it makes mistakes it's not hard to spot them. For example, I commented last week that I've found ChatGPT to be a great tool for managing my task list, and for whatever reason the "verbal" back-and-forth works much better for my brain than a simple checklist-based todo app: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35390644 . B…

OK, here's one: this substack [1] was flying around a week or two ago, asserting that the marginal value of programmers will fall to zero by 2030. What a dream! No more annoying nerds! The code in the post is wrong. For this "trivial" example, if you just blindly copied it into your code, it would not do what you want it to do. I love this example not just because it's ironic, but because it's a perfect illustration…

That code is wrong and I wonder if the author is familiar with the property of code encapsulated in the halting problem. Generically, reading code does not grant one the ability to predict what will happen when that code runs.

Whatever, time will tell. I still haven’t quite figured out how to make good use of GPT-4 in my daily work flow, tho it seems it might be possible.

Has anyone asked it to make an entry for the IOCC?

Re: AI won't steal your job, people leveraging AI will

#422

Post by gavinhoward » Mon, Apr 03, 2023, 7:03 PM UTC

fnovd wrote: post #413

gavinhoward wrote: post #370

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The final authority, and final liability, for the airplane is on the head of the pilots. A commercial pilot friend has told me that they still check the calculations. When they don't, they get accidents like the Gimli Glider. It's like saying that putting all of the legal checks on the lawyers is not going to give you a sustainable business. But we all know that's wrong.

What was the outcome of that incident? Fault was found with the Air Canada procedures, training, and manuals, while the Captain and First Officer went on to receive FAI Diplomas for Outstanding Airmanship. What did not happen was mass calls for the individual pilots to write their own calculation software. I'm not sure what point you're trying to make here, as reading about the incident you mentioned only paints a cl…

Yes, they did, but I think they should have also been censured for their lack of care as well.

When I wrote that calculator, I didn't write it for flight. I wrote it as a general calculator and just used it for flight. I would have used the GNU bc if I didn't write my own.

So it's a bit disingenuous to claim that I am claiming that pilots should write their own.

And pilots are included in those maintaining the system; they're not just using it.

Re: AI won't steal your job, people leveraging AI will

#423

Post by the_doctah » Mon, Apr 03, 2023, 7:05 PM UTC

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #361

the_doctah wrote: post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For a time, I was attempting to use it for game advice during my recent playthrough of Demon's Souls remake (What's the best build for X? What's the best weapon for X?). I asked ChatGPT where to find the NPC The Filthy Woman in a certain level. ChatGPT answered that that NPC doesn't exist, and perhaps I had the wrong game? That NPC most certainly does exist. I was also using it to generate some Java code for a bit. T…

> I asked ChatGPT where to find the NPC The Filthy Woman in a certain level. ChatGPT answered that that NPC doesn't exist, and perhaps I had the wrong game? That NPC most certainly does exist. OK, wow - that example kind of perfectly proves my point. If I were to ask ChatGPT an extremely specific, low-level question about an extremely niche topic, then I would absolutely be on "high alert" that it wouldn't know the a…

>OK, wow - that example kind of perfectly proves my point. If I were to ask ChatGPT an extremely specific, low-level question about an extremely niche topic, then I would absolutely be on "high alert" that it wouldn't know the answer. And while I agree the "confidence" with which ChatGPT asserts its answers (though I'd argue the GPT-4 version does a much better job at not being over-confident than 3.5) is off-putting, I think it's pretty easy to detect where it's wrong.

I don't consider a popular video game from 2009 to be "extremely niche", and I also shouldn't have to know what ChatGPT knows. And no, I don't think it's easy to detect where it's wrong if you don't know the right answer, and it's actually pretty useless when you have to spend time confirming answers.

Re: AI won't steal your job, people leveraging AI will

#424

Post by gavinhoward » Mon, Apr 03, 2023, 7:07 PM UTC

lanstin wrote: post #416

gavinhoward wrote: post #377

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The idea isn't to write better code faster, it's to build better products faster. All else being equal, better code means better products. Also, to have a better product without better code, you're implying that the design of the product is better and that these "AI" tools help with that. Until they can reason, they cannot help with design.

I think all else being equal, better code means you aren’t changing the system as fast and likely have stagnated in the business or growth side. Maybe that is appropriate for where your company is, but worse is better wins so often. And I would bet that AI design would help things where the existing designers are bad, e.g. so much open source UI (that is, not cli UX) written by devs, but it is still a bit away from t…

I don't need my business to grow. I want to support myself and my wife. That's it. You can call that whatever you like, but stagnation isn't it, unless you think that SQLite is stagnant because SQLite had the same business model.

"AI" design will not help until we have a true AI that can reason. (I don't think we ever will.)

Why is reasoning necessary? Because design is about understanding constraints and working within them while still producing a functional thing. A next-word-predictor will never be able to do that.

Re: AI won't steal your job, people leveraging AI will

#425

Post by lanstin » Mon, Apr 03, 2023, 7:10 PM UTC

SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #158

alex_sf wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Presumably the same way you make decisions on any piece of information. You should not be blindly trusting a single source.

I was too vague I think. The only place where I can see it being acceptable right now is code because I have a whole other system that will call out failures - I can rely on my IDE and my own expertise to hopefully catch issues when they appear. Outside of the code use case, what should I rely on ChatGPT for that won't have me also looking for the information somewhere else? I suppose subjective soft things, like wri…

It seemed to do a good job of outlining a JoJo season in the style of a Shakespearean comedy.

I wouldn’t ride in a vehicle it designed tho, based on my week of asking it to do go programming.

Re: AI won't steal your job, people leveraging AI will

#426

Post by SketchySeaBeast » Mon, Apr 03, 2023, 7:15 PM UTC

lanstin wrote: post #425

SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was too vague I think. The only place where I can see it being acceptable right now is code because I have a whole other system that will call out failures - I can rely on my IDE and my own expertise to hopefully catch issues when they appear. Outside of the code use case, what should I rely on ChatGPT for that won't have me also looking for the information somewhere else? I suppose subjective soft things, like wri…

It seemed to do a good job of outlining a JoJo season in the style of a Shakespearean comedy. I wouldn’t ride in a vehicle it designed tho, based on my week of asking it to do go programming.

Sometimes it does, but I asked ChatGPT (not 4) to give me song lyrics for a song that it should have had data for and it gave me entirely wrong lyrics. I asked again and it gave me me more bad lyrics, not even close, and it didn't even pretend it didn't know, the lyrics would have been convincing. If I didn't already know the material I wouldn't know it was confabulating.

Re: AI won't steal your job, people leveraging AI will

#427

Post by Herval_freire » Mon, Apr 03, 2023, 7:20 PM UTC

JohnFen wrote: post #384

Herval_freire wrote: post #376

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There's far too much uncertainty right now to engage in anything like planning. I agree there's a huge amount of uncertainty. But I think there still must be some sort of plan B. Maybe a sort of nest egg of sorts of what to do in case it all goes to shit.

Well, yes.. an emergency fund (the bigger the better, but I compromise on keeping at least 1 year's pay) and disaster planning are extremely important regardless of whether or not advanced AI exists. A plan B that targets the consequences of an advanced AI specifically is more problematic because, if the people who are all excited here see their fantasies come true, then not only are we all screwed, but the hardship…

No I mean more than an emergency fund. An emergency fund can be part of it, but I think you have to plan more given the greater uncertainties posed by AI.

More than a fund, an alternative.passive income source(s) is another factor. Given the situation now, it makes sense to ramp these side sources up and get them closer to mainline viability.

Re: AI won't steal your job, people leveraging AI will

#428

Post by eloff » Mon, Apr 03, 2023, 7:20 PM UTC

gavinhoward wrote: post #349

eloff wrote: post #319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess if you never grow that much. I don’t know why you would purposefully handicap yourself by not taking advantage of the tools available. Why make yourself less competitive?

Because I think "AI" is the handicap. "AI" will help at first, sure, but as it is used more and more, the code will become less and less well-designed and built. My code, on the other hand, will retain full quality, and my long-term velocity will out-pace anyone using those tools. "A little bit of slope makes up for a lot of y-intercept." [1] [1]: https://gist.github.com/gtallen1187/e83ed02eac6cc8d7e185

I’ve been using GitHub copilot and ChatGPT at work for a year now. I think you’re wrong. You don’t just wily nilly accept code from the AI anymore than you would from stackoverflow. But it would also be silly to ban yourself from copying code from stackoverflow. Don’t trust any code, regardless of the source, and don’t stop using your brain.

Re: AI won't steal your job, people leveraging AI will

#429

Post by lanstin » Mon, Apr 03, 2023, 7:21 PM UTC

Retric wrote: post #145

chewz wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The economic value of mediocre and derivative work is plummeting. But the value of truly excellent and original work will become even more unique, more highly prized. > A chasm between the third best and fourth best script writer, graphic designer, lawyer, etc. is just starting to open. ChatGPT might write the next Marvel movie but will never write the next Everything Everywhere All at Once. Not my words. By Eric P…

Except they can’t actually write the next Marvel movie today. I suspect AI getting good enough to create a Marvel movie is basically indistinguishable from it being able to create a good movie. The problem is LLM’s are basically just creating gibberish which mimics meaningful text well enough you don’t notice it’s meaningless as long as it’s a short enough sample. Modern AI techniques are approaching human level capa…

Are you sure about the nearly human levels of computational? Even at a trillion or so, I thought we still had several orders of magnitude before the free parameters approached anything like the (currently known) information density of an adult brain?

Re: AI won't steal your job, people leveraging AI will

#430

Post by lanstin » Mon, Apr 03, 2023, 7:23 PM UTC

Al-Khwarizmi wrote: post #123

chewz wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The economic value of mediocre and derivative work is plummeting. But the value of truly excellent and original work will become even more unique, more highly prized. > A chasm between the third best and fourth best script writer, graphic designer, lawyer, etc. is just starting to open. ChatGPT might write the next Marvel movie but will never write the next Everything Everywhere All at Once. Not my words. By Eric P…

I think it may turn out to be like that but I don't see it as guaranteed. How can we be so sure that GPT-8 will not write things that we consider to be really original and unique? I know, it's trained with human data and its output is based on that. The same can be said of human authors, though. Arguably we never create an idea from scratch, originality is just putting ideas together in really non-standard ways.

Useful non standard ways.

I think trying to make a context free intelligent system is making it excessively hard for the AGI folks. Our brain definitely figures out what to do for pre-sentient reasons, or using pre-sentient hardware.