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AI won't steal your job, people leveraging AI will

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Re: AI won't steal your job, people leveraging AI will

#401

Post by ModernMech »

fnimick wrote: post #338
redleggedfrog wrote: post #333

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the future - maybe not everywhere, and probably not soon, but it is an eventuality. Also, AI will be treated like encryption - it will become a munition, with the same type of restrictions as munitions ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Export_of_cryptography_from_th... ). Governments will keep the best AI for themselves, leaving the goof-nuts ChatGPT type stuff for private citizens. Then the question becomes di…

The real question in my mind is, does democracy survive once the top 1% has a complete and unquestioned monopoly on violence and power? I don't think so.

It doesn't survive, but that's the moment when the monopoly on violence broken, and the government becomes open season for citizens. Yes, the deck is stacked against the citizens, but all else equal, I think the 1% prefers it when the masses aren't constructing gallows and sharpening pitchforks. The mob is our truest and strongest weapon against the 1%.

Re: AI won't steal your job, people leveraging AI will

#402

Post by LegitShady »

cal85 wrote: post #201
jandrese wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The degree to which it enables undesirable behavior. A disturbed guy may want to murder everybody in a nightclub, but his chances of success go way up when he has a gun vs. a knife. A company owner may want to automate your job away, but without AI the automation is too expensive and unreliable. The big concern with AI isn't so much the Terminator future, but the Cyberpunk future, where all wealth is concentrated at…

Sounds like you took the headline to mean "There's no concern about AI", but in fact it explicitly highlights an important concern for many: if you fail to keep up, you will lose your job. I am puzzled so many here seem to have not read the second half of the headline before commenting that the headline missed "the point". The point is in the second half.

If you keep up you may lose your job anyways, as productivity increases due to ai may just mean fewer jobs. Thats the point that is made about AI taking jobs in general - this person seems to reference it in the headline but then dives into a different unrelated argument so is basically clickbaiting.

Re: AI won't steal your job, people leveraging AI will

#403

Post by lanstin »

onion2k wrote: post #181
tricksforfree wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How often are calculators confidently wrong?

AI is confidently wrong about a lot of things, but that doesn't mean it's useless. It means you need to verify what it generates. Doing that for code is much easier than prose. AI that produces wrong code is immediately and obviously wrong. It can't really fool you. It's easy to test. You can even ask AI to write tests for the code it produces to demonstrate it's correct.

Just because it is making obvious errors doesn’t mean it isn’t also making subtle errors.

Re: AI won't steal your job, people leveraging AI will

#404

Post by lanstin »

AlecSchueler wrote: post #134
wkat4242 wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the thing. ChatGPT shouldn't be that confident in its wording IMO.. If it just said "according to me" instead of stating things as fact, people would have much less problems with it. We know this wording is just show but people still get swayed by it and believe it must be true.

Yeah and it can actually reflect on itself and its mistakes when prompted, so I can see a fix like this coming soon. Sometimes just asking, Are you sure? is enough for it to apologize and say a part of its answer wasn't based in known fact. Also another point while I'm here: Many many humans I've met are often confident when incorrect as well and can and will bullshit an answer when it suits their comfort.

But no one asserts the existence of those people will forever change society.

Re: AI won't steal your job, people leveraging AI will

#405

Post by fnovd »

gavinhoward wrote: post #373
fnovd wrote: post #365

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sure people said the same thing about compilers. And then interpreters. Even today people complain about interpreted languages being too slow and not requiring people to understand "enough" of what's actually happening. Turns out that really doesn't matter. I think your argument is incredibly weak; the fact that some people don't use these tools effectively doesn't mean that nobody can. Whoever figures this stuff…

> Turns out that really doesn't matter. Except that it does! For every level of abstraction, you lose something, and abstractions are leaky. The lower levels of abstraction make you lose the least, and they are also the least leaky. The higher you go, the more you lose, and the more leaky. What I'm claiming is that these "AI" tools have definitely reached the point where the losses and the leaks are too large to just…

We all rely on abstractions over layers we don't deal with directly, that's just a fact. You're not running a home-grown OS on custom-built hardware made from materials you mined out of the ground yourself. AI is just another layer. Not everyone operates on the highest, newest layer, and that's absolutely fine. You can carve your niche anywhere you like. Telling yourself that the layer above you isn't feasible isn't going to do you any favors but it does generate buzz on social media which seems like it's the goal here.

You're not betting anything because the cost for you to change your mind and start working with AI tools is exactly 0. This rhetoric is just marketing. I'm sure you'll find the customers that are right for you, but you can at least admit that this kind of talk is putting the aesthetic preference of what you want work to look like above what's actually the most effective. Again, I'm sure you'll find customers who share those aesthetic preferences, but to pretend like it's actually an engineering concern is marketing gone too far.

Re: AI won't steal your job, people leveraging AI will

#406

Post by disqard »

A4ET8a8uTh0 wrote: post #312
fnimick wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, I'm not. I'm not even in the top 10%. Also, we can be concerned for people less fortunate than us. "You're probably wealthy so why do you care" is such a stupid argument.

I will add even more to this point. If anything, people who are more fortunate have an actual incentive to ensure some level of care for those less fortunate even if it is just for purely selfish reasons. Hungry people are angry people and the moment there is a lot of hungry, angry people, being top 10% is unlikely to keep you or your wealth safe. There are obviously non-pragmatic considerations, but I am trying to a…

You'll probably like this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Is1YUQVYkvY&t=30s

It's Douglas Rushkoff, a media theorist, sharing how he was invited to give a "talk" by a small group of billionaires, and their questions were about where to situate their post-apocalyptic bunkers, etc.

Re: AI won't steal your job, people leveraging AI will

#407

Post by lanstin »

Veen wrote: post #57
tricksforfree wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How often are calculators confidently wrong?

There's a lot of work happening at the moment around self-reflection and getting LLMs to identify and correct their own hallucinations and mistakes. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.11366.pdf

I suspect some temporality will need to be added. There are times when writing the code you have a question because the code exposes an unexpressed choice in the requirements. When you are coding in linear time, you then know to go ask the question. I am not sure that just generating the most likely or most rewarded response will do that easily. It seems to just arbitrarily pick the most likely requirement.

Re: AI won't steal your job, people leveraging AI will

#408

Post by A4ET8a8uTh0 »

fnimick wrote: post #371
A4ET8a8uTh0 wrote: post #312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I will add even more to this point. If anything, people who are more fortunate have an actual incentive to ensure some level of care for those less fortunate even if it is just for purely selfish reasons. Hungry people are angry people and the moment there is a lot of hungry, angry people, being top 10% is unlikely to keep you or your wealth safe. There are obviously non-pragmatic considerations, but I am trying to a…

> Hungry people are angry people and the moment there is a lot of hungry, angry people, being top 10% is unlikely to keep you or your wealth safe. Not if you have AI-powered autonomous "law" enforcement to gun them all down when they threaten you. It's only a matter of time.

If there is one thing that history taught us, it is that there is very little that can stop a determined populace ( Afghanistan being one recent example ). The mirror-like show scenarios are not impossible, but it would require a series of events that are hard to guarantee. I am saying that not because I think AI law enforcement won't happen. I am saying that because the moment it does happen, new equilibrium will manifest itself. And by this I mean.. do you really think people won't adjust their lives accordingly?

Re: AI won't steal your job, people leveraging AI will

#409

Post by A4ET8a8uTh0 »

jschveibinz wrote: post #389
A4ET8a8uTh0 wrote: post #312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I will add even more to this point. If anything, people who are more fortunate have an actual incentive to ensure some level of care for those less fortunate even if it is just for purely selfish reasons. Hungry people are angry people and the moment there is a lot of hungry, angry people, being top 10% is unlikely to keep you or your wealth safe. There are obviously non-pragmatic considerations, but I am trying to a…

How will you use AI to solve these problems?

I won't. Frankly, neither will anyone else. This is not an AI problem. It is, inherently, a very human problem.

Re: AI won't steal your job, people leveraging AI will

#410

Post by lanstin »

jschveibinz wrote: post #388
golergka wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> However, automation allows for the owner of the goods of production to retain much more of the value created. Owners of means of productions are typically american people with 401k or other pensions funds. There's nothing wrong to provide good returns for regular people.

AI is arguably the most powerful production (as in “means of production”) tool ever created. Anyone that is literate and somewhat intelligent/capable with access to the web is potentially more inventive and creative in the coming years than the greatest thinkers and creators that have ever lived. Billions of people will meet this qualification. Everyone is now faced with a choice: use the tool and stay in the race, o…

This doesn’t really match my experience of trying to get GPT to do all my daily software work. I don’t think I would have succeeded at all were it not for my ability to debug its output, which of course is the result of my model of the reality of the computing system and years of debugging my own and others code. So if I lacked that experience, I don’t think it would that valuable.

On the other hand, I did get it to make a nice story arc for JoJo in the style of a Shakespearean comedy.

My son and his friends have been getting it to write manga about themselves but in novel genre crossing stories. Like a normally happy magic genre where the main character lacks powers and dies.

So no more transformative than really good entertainment. Fun but not going to reduce income inequality or stop the sea from rising.

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