If AI scaling is to be shut down, let it be for a coherent reason • Hacker News Board

Re: If AI scaling is to be shut down, let it be for a coherent reason

#471

Post by another2another » Mon, Apr 03, 2023, 4:05 PM UTC

skocznymroczny wrote: post #54

Am I the only one who's not very concerned about ChatGPT and "AI" in general? I am young, but still lived through several hype phases. I remember when 3D TVs were going to be mainstream and 2D was considered legacy. I remember when PC was to die soon and to be replaced by smartphones. I remember when VR was to become as common accessory as a game controller. It's 2023, and I still don't have automated self driving ca…

>I remember when PC was to die soon and to be replaced by smartphones

Hmm, That's kinda happening slowly I think, but probably more by tablets. Probably most people here on HN have a laptop/desktop at home, but I wonder how many households see it as a necessity anymore.

Re: If AI scaling is to be shut down, let it be for a coherent reason

#472

Post by lukifer » Mon, Apr 03, 2023, 9:27 PM UTC

_-____-_ wrote: post #406

lukifer wrote: post #298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To calibrate: Yudkowsky didn't sign because he feels a temporary moratorium doesn't go far enough, and he published a piece in Time [0] with a stance that a shooting war to enforce a ban on AI training would be justified, to prevent the extinction of the human race. I'm not convinced that he's wrong. [0] https://time.com/6266923/ai-eliezer-yudkowsky-open-letter-no...

Is my assumption correct that Yudkowsky is unmarried with no kids? If so, I wonder how this shapes his pessimism on the subject. Perhaps it's more exciting to be an alarmist about the future when you've only got a few decades left on this planet and with no legacy in place to leave behind.

Quite the opposite. FTA:

> When the insider conversation is about the grief of seeing your daughter lose her first tooth, and thinking she's not going to get a chance to grow up, I believe we are past the point of playing political chess about a six-month moratorium.

Re: If AI scaling is to be shut down, let it be for a coherent reason

#473

Post by barking_biscuit » Mon, Apr 03, 2023, 9:56 PM UTC

ChatGTP wrote: post #468

barking_biscuit wrote: post #448

Earlier quoted context omitted.

LLMs can perform cognitive labor. Moreover they can increasingly perform it at a level that matches and/or surpasses humans. Humans can use them to augment their own capabilities, and execute faster on more difficult tasks with a higher rate of success. In addition, cognitive labor can be automated. When bandwidth increases, latency decreases. We're going to be able to get significantly higher throughput than we were…

Nope, it's now another voice, a colleague who's work you constantly have to check over because you can't trust it enough to just say, "go ahead, I know you're trust worthy". This is already happening. ??

Sort of just proves my point, no? It's faster for me to just check its work than to do the work from scratch myself and that work isn't monopolizing the wetware of another human being. Cognitive bandwidth has increased. The system is capable of more throughput than before. In fact, how much more throughput could you get if you employ enough instances of LLMs to saturate the cognitive bandwidth of a human who's sole job is to simply verify the outputs?

If you look at the leap from GPT-3 -> GPT-4 in terms of hallucinations and capabilities etc, and you combine that with advances in cognitive architecture like reflexion and AutoGPT, it's pretty clear the trajectory is one of becoming increasingly competent and trustworthy.

The degree to which you need to check it's work depends on your use case, level of risk tolerance, and methods for verification. I think one of the reasons AI art has absolutely exploded is because there's no consequences for a generation that fails and it can be verified instantly. Compare that to doing your taxes where it's high stakes if you get it wrong, you're far less likely to rely on it. There is a landscape of usefulness with different peaks and valleys.

Re: If AI scaling is to be shut down, let it be for a coherent reason

#474

Post by ChatGTP » Tue, Apr 04, 2023, 6:57 AM UTC

barking_biscuit wrote: post #473

ChatGTP wrote: post #468

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nope, it's now another voice, a colleague who's work you constantly have to check over because you can't trust it enough to just say, "go ahead, I know you're trust worthy". This is already happening. ??

Sort of just proves my point, no? It's faster for me to just check its work than to do the work from scratch myself and that work isn't monopolizing the wetware of another human being. Cognitive bandwidth has increased. The system is capable of more throughput than before. In fact, how much more throughput could you get if you employ enough instances of LLMs to saturate the cognitive bandwidth of a human who's sole j…

What are one of the professional use cases where you would just feel comfortable YOLOing some ChatGPT generated code into prod? Publishing a journal without verification etc?

You should also take note of the warnings in the GPT-4 manual, it's a much more convincing liar than GPT-3. Quite explicitly says that.

My fear is that I just get lazy and trust it all the time.

I think one of the reasons AI art has absolutely exploded is because there's no consequences for a generation that fails and it can be verified instantly.

What are you talking about exactly?

Re: If AI scaling is to be shut down, let it be for a coherent reason

#475

Post by barking_biscuit » Wed, Apr 05, 2023, 9:51 PM UTC

ChatGTP wrote: post #474

barking_biscuit wrote: post #473

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sort of just proves my point, no? It's faster for me to just check its work than to do the work from scratch myself and that work isn't monopolizing the wetware of another human being. Cognitive bandwidth has increased. The system is capable of more throughput than before. In fact, how much more throughput could you get if you employ enough instances of LLMs to saturate the cognitive bandwidth of a human who's sole j…

What are one of the professional use cases where you would just feel comfortable YOLOing some ChatGPT generated code into prod? Publishing a journal without verification etc? You should also take note of the warnings in the GPT-4 manual, it's a much more convincing liar than GPT-3. Quite explicitly says that. My fear is that I just get lazy and trust it all the time. I think one of the reasons AI art has absolutely e…

What's with the assumption that anyone needs to YOLO anything? Your coworkers don't let you YOLO your code to prod, and you don't let them YOLO their code to prod. Trust but verify, right?

My point with the AI art comment is that not every output of these models is something that needs to go to production! There's a continuum of how much something matters if it's wrong, and it depends on who is consuming the output and what it is they need to do with it, and the degree to which other stakeholders are involved.