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For the first time, renewable energy generation beat out coal in the US

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Re: For the first time, renewable energy generation beat out coal in the US

#291
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have a source for north of 70%? I’m not implying it’s incorrect, but I haven’t seen any papers with this level of efficiency for similar proposals.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S03605... We're not there yet. Currently, this setup is non-sensical since a lot of other measures should be implemented first, but even currently existing tech is pretty efficient, all things considered. And it only gets better from here.

That paper is awesome, thanks for posting. As well as efficiency, I'm also interested in life cycle analysis of these kind of tech if you know of any good papers.

Re: For the first time, renewable energy generation beat out coal in the US

#292
post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok, you read the studies and are better informed than me. Just lay out how exactly this system would work, if: 1) Nuclear is phased out 2) Coal is phased out 3) We could at any time phase out gas as well because we semi-listened to the US that warned us we gave Putin the switch to our electricity grid If I look at https://app.electricitymaps.com/zone/DE and see patterns like 50 GW at 3 am and 60 GW at 1 pm I wonder:…

If you want to "understand exactly how it works", then you need to build a realistic digital twin of the whole grid, and run tons of scenarios. Trying to conclude from such "high level" map is as ridiculous as trying to explain car mobility in a city by just looking at one unique number for each country. When you do that, you realize several things: - the electricity grid _before the move to go out of the nuclear_ wa…

Well, how should it be done then? You just explain what doesn’t work and explain that “nuclear for sure doesn’t work either”. You offer no viable path how to “go renewable”.

“ In simulation, it turns out that large distance grid connectivity (which is better for the resilience anyway) and some storage (which was at the time (and still today) way more room to progress than some nuclear technology) are fixing the "no wind night" challenge quite effectively.”

Not in reality it seems though. I take a look at April 3, 7 am: https://app.electricitymaps.com/zone/DE Solar was zero. Wind dropped to 20% coal was increased to 30%. April 2nd at 3 pm, wind stood at 37% and coal stood at 13%. So, where after two decades of “going renewable” is this even remotely speaking yo your ideological dream world? Let me reiterate: wind dropped by 50% and they had to increase coal by 100%. At night.

I want renewables to work. I put my money where my mouth is. But after two decades or so of “trying” we are only showing data demonstrating they can’t work for Germany the way people like you want us to believe.”

Re: For the first time, renewable energy generation beat out coal in the US

#293
post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you want to "understand exactly how it works", then you need to build a realistic digital twin of the whole grid, and run tons of scenarios. Trying to conclude from such "high level" map is as ridiculous as trying to explain car mobility in a city by just looking at one unique number for each country. When you do that, you realize several things: - the electricity grid _before the move to go out of the nuclear_ wa…

Well, how should it be done then? You just explain what doesn’t work and explain that “nuclear for sure doesn’t work either”. You offer no viable path how to “go renewable”. “ In simulation, it turns out that large distance grid connectivity (which is better for the resilience anyway) and some storage (which was at the time (and still today) way more room to progress than some nuclear technology) are fixing the "no w…

> Well, how should it be done then? You just explain what doesn’t work and explain that “nuclear for sure doesn’t work either”. You offer no viable path how to “go renewable”.

I'm not sure I understand your question. You are saying "the problem is that it did not work because it was ideological". I'm saying "it is incorrect, the plan was not an irrational crazy thing out of ideology, it was a scientific study and the choice was as rational as other possibilities". Then you are now telling me "well, the plan does not work, so it can only be ideological, unless you provide a plan that will work for sure". That does not make any sense. Nobody can come with a plan that works for sure. Saying "you don't have a plan that works for sure, so I can say whatever I want and I'm right" is certainly not a rational way of thinking.

> Not in reality it seems though.

What? You are saying that in a grid that the German government has botched, there is no capacity for compensate for "no wind night". How does that prove that the "no wind night" is an impossible obstacle?

Again, it is MATH! Math proves it is possible. The fact that the German government did not put their money where their mouth was is obviously not proving that not possible.

And don't get me wrong, it works both way: France messed up their nuclear park. It DOES NOT MEAN NUCLEAR CANNOT WORK. Based on our conversation so far, I doubt that if someone bring France summer problems to demonstrate that nuclear does not work, you will not, legitimately, say that it's a stupid argument. That's the same here.

And as long as there are idiots that are unable to discuss the situation by accepting the complexity and by accepting that, maybe, just maybe, decisions that don't fit their naive conclusions are not the result of "bad ideological guys", then, we will never progress.

> ... your ideological dream world ... people like you ...

I see. And you are criticizing the German government for being ideological. For your information, I was part of a team that helped creating new nuclear project. But you are yet one of those m*rons who are incapable of not seeing the world in black or white. You criticize the German government, and yet, you fall 1000 times faster into the "oh my, this guy is bringing reality that I don't like, so I should convince myself that my church is the great rationality on earth and that he is an heretic". Pathetic.

Re: For the first time, renewable energy generation beat out coal in the US

#294
post #87
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Too bad the capital requirements upfront are so expensive for nuclear and literally no one wants to fund a project that will cost at least $8 billion, won't be online for a decade, and the power it be will produce is already more expensive than that of smaller renewable projects. Who knows maybe once renewable market penetration is nearly maxed out and if storage tech somehow hasn't caught up enough despite the great…

Nuclear is not offering the best price per Mwh now ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source ), but it will certainly in the next decades. Solar and wind power sources requires an absurd amount of metal (sometimes rare metals) to build the generators (solar panels, wind turbines, etc). This metal is extracted today with an enourmous consumption of fossil fuels, and it will be difficult to have a g…

Price doesn't matter, only carbon matters

It's trivial to fund renewables with a chinese, coal-powered industry, so it will look cheap, but it's putting coal under the rug.

Re: For the first time, renewable energy generation beat out coal in the US

#295
post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nuclear is not offering the best price per Mwh now ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source ), but it will certainly in the next decades. Solar and wind power sources requires an absurd amount of metal (sometimes rare metals) to build the generators (solar panels, wind turbines, etc). This metal is extracted today with an enourmous consumption of fossil fuels, and it will be difficult to have a g…

you realize nuclear plants also require a lot of metal to produce?

much much less per unit of power

please look at this, I'm tired of having to remind people that nuclear is the best on ALL fronts except cost

https://i.imgur.com/qKzwxuj.jpeg

Re: For the first time, renewable energy generation beat out coal in the US

#296
post #293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, how should it be done then? You just explain what doesn’t work and explain that “nuclear for sure doesn’t work either”. You offer no viable path how to “go renewable”. “ In simulation, it turns out that large distance grid connectivity (which is better for the resilience anyway) and some storage (which was at the time (and still today) way more room to progress than some nuclear technology) are fixing the "no w…

> Well, how should it be done then? You just explain what doesn’t work and explain that “nuclear for sure doesn’t work either”. You offer no viable path how to “go renewable”. I'm not sure I understand your question. You are saying "the problem is that it did not work because it was ideological". I'm saying "it is incorrect, the plan was not an irrational crazy thing out of ideology, it was a scientific study and the…

Not sure how to put it: if you built a model and simulation that has proven something that claims a certain approach might work - but fail to include a realistic plan of execution and “real life” into it: it’s not worth anything and “science” is abused for ideology “look the numbers show it will work”.

Well, today it doesn’t and tomorrow it won’t either.

I’ve seen my fair share of “objective projects/engagements where the wanted outcome was communicated very clearly” by German government bodies.

I love the idea of decentralised and local energy generation; energy efficient housing/living. I spent $$$ on it.

But Germany has an industry that is so hungry for a constant supply of electricity that I see no realistic viable path in renewables for that. People like you have claimed for two decades there is - yet, here we are: running coal full steam at night.

Idealists like you destroy our planet.

Re: For the first time, renewable energy generation beat out coal in the US

#297

My comment isn't directly related to the OP, but figured it'd be an interesting insight to share as it's very recent for me. Just finished a motorbike trip in Laos. Fun fact, their largest export is electricity. Would've never guessed that, right? 90% of the electricity they generate is exported to neighboring countries - mostly Thailand. 80% is renewable - Go Laos! But wait, it may be renewable... but turns out the…

It's the driest country I've been to in a while, many villages had their water access completely destroyed due to upstream dams. Completely destroyed, or just no longer enough to support wasteful methods of irrigation? It's been over a decade since I was in SE Asia, but my impression was that they relied heavily on flooding fields for irrigation.

You bring up a good point. I'm unsure.

I live full time in Indonesia, and their irrigation system is much more complex. I saw nothing of the sort in Laos, so perhaps that could be a factor too.

Re: For the first time, renewable energy generation beat out coal in the US

#298
post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m in BC, Canada and just pulled the trigger on 14.56 kw if ground mount for $42k CAD, tax included. Wondering why Solar is so much more expensive (ignoring the batteries) in your area? I’d think it would be a lot cheaper with more competition. Going with Longi bifacial panels - does the US restrict or add huge duties on Chinese panels?

GP did not mention the mounting option, so I assume they were going for a roof installation. Which has to be a significant markup vs ground mount. I am only partially handy, but even I could throw some poles in the ground and a frame to hold solar panels. Doing the same for a roof would be significantly beyond my abilities.

From the quotes we received ground mount is usually quite a bit more expensive per installed watt. The frames cost more, there’s longer runs of cabling, etc.

Re: For the first time, renewable energy generation beat out coal in the US

#299
post #293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Well, how should it be done then? You just explain what doesn’t work and explain that “nuclear for sure doesn’t work either”. You offer no viable path how to “go renewable”. I'm not sure I understand your question. You are saying "the problem is that it did not work because it was ideological". I'm saying "it is incorrect, the plan was not an irrational crazy thing out of ideology, it was a scientific study and the…

Not sure how to put it: if you built a model and simulation that has proven something that claims a certain approach might work - but fail to include a realistic plan of execution and “real life” into it: it’s not worth anything and “science” is abused for ideology “look the numbers show it will work”. Well, today it doesn’t and tomorrow it won’t either. I’ve seen my fair share of “objective projects/engagements wher…

> Not sure how to put it: if you built a model and simulation that has proven something that claims a certain approach might work - but fail to include a realistic plan of execution and “real life” into it

It is not the case. The model say: if you do A, B and C, it will work, but if you do A but not B and C, it will fail. The German government has done A but not B and C. What happened with Germany is CONFIRMING that the model works. Other elements of the models are applied in other countries, such as France or England (not the full deployment, but the elements deployed behave exactly as the model predict).

> People like you have claimed for two decades there is - yet, here we are: running coal full steam at night.

Yep, running coal full steam in France when the nuclear power plants fail. So, according to you, nuclear is not working, renewable is not working, ... What's your plan? Whatever you give me, I can easily find places where it failed, which, according to you, is enough to claim that the whole strategy was "ideological".

The thing you are unable to understand is that failure is part of the reality: there is no obviously winning strategy, and rejecting a whole path based on failures that you are not even understanding is ridiculously obtuse.

> Idealists like you destroy our planet.

You are right: idealists LIKE YOU destroy our planet. I'm a pragmatic, I don't care if the solution is nuclear or renewable (but apparently you are totally unable to realize that, which just reinforce the conclusion that your analysis is disconnected from reality). But you are an ideologist: you have decided what is the "correct" solution without knowing the real situation, and you invented excuses to confirm what you have in your head is "the good thing".

But whatever, it does not change the facts: you may think the move was "ideological", but the facts are still there: it was not. You may insist and cry about it, it is very clear that you have no idea of what was the situation (you've even mentioned it yourself). Honestly, if you really want to help the planet, just stop saying useless things and accusing wrongly people of being "ideological" just because it does not fit with the naive model you have created from your superficial understanding of the situation.

Re: For the first time, renewable energy generation beat out coal in the US

#300
post #276
post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> in some sense that's 'low carbon' It doesn't in a sense that meaningfully addresses the challenges we're facing, though.

reducing the carbon dioxide emitted by 40 percent at the same load does in fact meaningfully ensmallen the global warming problem, unless there's some compensating extra emissions somewhere else in the system, like methane leaking from pipelines

That's just for electricity production. A 40% reduction in the sector where we could do 90-95% leaves no room for sectors where there are fewer opportunities.

40% for electricity means a much lower reduction overall, especially if it informs the efforts we're willing to make.

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