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Japan Breaks with U.S. Allies, Buys Russian Oil at Prices Above Cap

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Re: Japan Breaks with U.S. Allies, Buys Russian Oil at Prices Above Cap

#31

Post by ceejayoz »

EGreg wrote: post #26
ceejayoz wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No? They've expressed zero interest in resolving the disagreement via force, and parts of Ukraine are currently held by Russia in a similar fashion.

Then what was the point of your example? What does Japan gain from the idea that one country cannot take another country's territory by force, if it is in fact Russia that is in control of these islands? If anything, Japan would like them back eventually. All attempts at diplomacy have failed, so force would be the only other option.

> Then what was the point of your example?

That Japan most certainly doesn't want territorial disputes to be resolved by might and current possession status.

> If anything, Japan would like them back eventually.

Yes, and they'd prefer "Russia currently holds them, so they get to keep them" not to be precedent. Russia is attempting to set that precedent in eastern Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova currently.

Re: Japan Breaks with U.S. Allies, Buys Russian Oil at Prices Above Cap

#32

Post by [deleted] »

ceejayoz wrote: post #8
rayiner wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> At least one middling positive of the invasion has been a litmus test for the levels of integrity of various countries. Russia annexed Crimea almost a decade ago. If you haven't read the writing on the wall and maneuvered independence you're incompetent or immoral. I can’t really parse this. Why should Japan care about Crimea or Ukraine?

Japan has ongoing territorial disputes with Russia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuril_Islands_dispute It's probably in their best interest not to signal "it's fine to forcibly annex someone else's lands".

[deleted]

Re: Japan Breaks with U.S. Allies, Buys Russian Oil at Prices Above Cap

#33

Post by ericmay »

user3939382 wrote: post #23

Anyone who's been paying attention I believe would agree that our foreign policy around Ukraine has come at a huge cost not only to us financially and economically, but also to our foreign relations. Under this conflict our relations with China, India, Brazil, Saudi Arabia -- these are important partners -- have degraded. Having watched that unfold, this isn't a surprise to me.

Well.

China relationship is strained for many reasons, Ukraine and their general support for Russia conducting the war is just icing on the cake. This has strained Chinese relations with multiple countries though (UK, EU members, etc.).

India I’m not seeing much in the way of change. The US at least didn’t really do anything different with India buying Russian oil.

US relations with South American companies are variable and generally slightly negative based on what I’ve seen, but I’m not really sure how they have gotten worse. What is leading you to believe that they are?

Saudi Arabia I somewhat agree with but think Middle East politics are extremely complex. Wouldn’t read much into Chinese efforts there.

On the other hand, the US has shored up massive support from all of Europe ex Belarus, Japan, South Korea, Canada, and Australia at a minimum. Finland joins NATO tomorrow.

Overall I’d say the war has been a large boost to American foreign relations on the whole. Can’t please everyone anyway.

W.r.t cost -> everybody is spending money. Russia especially.

Re: Japan Breaks with U.S. Allies, Buys Russian Oil at Prices Above Cap

#34

Post by ceejayoz »

user3939382 wrote: post #23

Anyone who's been paying attention I believe would agree that our foreign policy around Ukraine has come at a huge cost not only to us financially and economically, but also to our foreign relations. Under this conflict our relations with China, India, Brazil, Saudi Arabia -- these are important partners -- have degraded. Having watched that unfold, this isn't a surprise to me.

US-NATO/EU relations, in contrast, have rarely been stronger, and a long-standing US goal of increasing European defense spending has now become feasible.

China and the Saudis are unlikely to somehow turn into genuine friends, and in China's case specifically the unified stance in Ukraine (as well as the "it's harder to invade than you might think" message) sends a bit of a message in the case of Taiwan.

The trade-off seems pretty acceptable.

Re: Japan Breaks with U.S. Allies, Buys Russian Oil at Prices Above Cap

#35

Post by csomar »

The next few weeks/months are going to be very interesting. Saudi Arabia has doubled down on its new direction. Japan/EU seems at edge with the war in Ukraine. China is making new moves in the global financial scene.

The US has accumulated significant political debt in the recent years. They have significantly abused their position with the US dollars hegemony. In this recent conflict, the cost burdened Europe and the allies more than the US. Europe, except for Poland and the Baltics, does not seem to be too enthusiastic for this war.

I wonder if the US has a joker card or the downfall risk being a spectacular one.

Re: Japan Breaks with U.S. Allies, Buys Russian Oil at Prices Above Cap

#37

Post by fakedang »

user3939382 wrote: post #23

Anyone who's been paying attention I believe would agree that our foreign policy around Ukraine has come at a huge cost not only to us financially and economically, but also to our foreign relations. Under this conflict our relations with China, India, Brazil, Saudi Arabia -- these are important partners -- have degraded. Having watched that unfold, this isn't a surprise to me.

Sometimes it's okay to assume that cost, if it means standing on the right side morally.

As an Indian, I detest the Russian invasion. In fact, a number of Indians do, and it's only a few vocal fanatics who seem to support Russia's invasion. None of us thought Russia would be stupid enough to invade Ukraine, and we all thought it was a ploy to raise oilprices by making up "tensions at the border". And trust me, the West's relationship with India hasn't changed. Rather India's relationship with Russia has degraded slightly, since India has begun programmes in every front to dispose of Russian military tech.

India continues to buy oil from Russia, as does Japan, China, etc, only because it's the rational thing to do - you're getting dirt cheap prices and you're an oil-starved nation, why wouldn't you be an opportunist? And if I remember correctly, the West leadership tacitly supports this arrangement as that helps stabilize oil prices for the West buying from the rest of the suppliers.

US relations with the other countries in the list have degraded but that's largely because of the Trump and Biden governments policies towards them, and less because of Ukraine.

Re: Japan Breaks with U.S. Allies, Buys Russian Oil at Prices Above Cap

#38

Post by reducesuffering »

rayiner wrote: post #4
reducesuffering wrote: post #3

Money quote: 'It’s not as if Japan can’t manage without this. They can. They simply don’t want to,” said James Brown, a professor at Temple University’s Japan campus. Prof. Brown, who studies Russia-Japan relations, said Japan should move to withdraw from the Sakhalin projects eventually “if they’re really serious about supporting Ukraine.” Mitsui & Co. and Mitsubishi Corp. , two Japanese companies, collectively own…

> At least one middling positive of the invasion has been a litmus test for the levels of integrity of various countries. Russia annexed Crimea almost a decade ago. If you haven't read the writing on the wall and maneuvered independence you're incompetent or immoral. I can’t really parse this. Why should Japan care about Crimea or Ukraine?

> Why should Japan care about Crimea or Ukraine?

For the same reason your neighbor should care if someone breaks into your home, points a gun at your family, and says half your house is theirs now. Oh and no police are coming.

Re: Japan Breaks with U.S. Allies, Buys Russian Oil at Prices Above Cap

#39

Post by dougmwne »

user3939382 wrote: post #23

Anyone who's been paying attention I believe would agree that our foreign policy around Ukraine has come at a huge cost not only to us financially and economically, but also to our foreign relations. Under this conflict our relations with China, India, Brazil, Saudi Arabia -- these are important partners -- have degraded. Having watched that unfold, this isn't a surprise to me.

It seems quite obvious that a major global conflict comes with a cost. The main question becomes, is the cost worth it? Inaction also has a cost, possibly less cost in the short term while the profits keep rolling in and more cost in the long term when the tanks start rolling in.

Re: Japan Breaks with U.S. Allies, Buys Russian Oil at Prices Above Cap

#40

Post by FpUser »

st4lz wrote: post #30
rayiner wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> At least one middling positive of the invasion has been a litmus test for the levels of integrity of various countries. Russia annexed Crimea almost a decade ago. If you haven't read the writing on the wall and maneuvered independence you're incompetent or immoral. I can’t really parse this. Why should Japan care about Crimea or Ukraine?

There is a shocking reality of how short-sighted and strategically shallow the opinions of people may be, even very literate ones with unlimited access to information. There are very long tensions between Japan and Russia about the Kuril Islands, that both countries have a claim on. It is very possible, that the same vague claims used on annexing Crimea today, or Donbas, would be used against Japan, and may not stop…

>"If there would be no punishment for disrespecting international law, the chaos would come."

The list of "disrespecting international law" is pretty big. The list of punishment is way shorter and highly selective.

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