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What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

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Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#591
post #565

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the costs of living in large cities keep rising, maybe the young will learn that the "educated, big city living" will just be a trap and wasted years for a lot of them, and will decide to for a life in their local areas instead? There's plenty of Univerisities in small, local cities as well, so it doesn't mean being condemned to becoming a chimney sweep as well.

That's very true but there are two problems: 1. Most young aren't so lucky to be born in a small developed city with good universities, jobs and high quality of life, so they can stick around their families, which is why they leave. Look at most of Southern and Eastern Europe. 2. For your idea to work we need to have companies also creating jobs in smaller cities, but the reverse is happening: most companies now excl…

> 1. Most young aren't so lucky to be born in a small developed city with good universities, jobs and high quality of life, so they can stick around their families, which is why they leave. Look at most of Southern and Eastern Europe.

I'm from Poland. In here, no matter where you're born, there's a city with an University within 100 km from you (and usually, it's much closer). A lot of those cities are smaller, affordable cities, with rents half that of Warsaw.

> 2. For your idea to work we need to have companies also creating jobs in smaller cities, but the reverse is happening: most companies now exclusively move to the biggest cities where the larges worker pools already are (Berlin, London, Amsterdam, etc) creating a snowball effect. Small cities also have jobs, but they tend to be terrible, body-shop style that suck to work for.

It's true if you're in tech or other highly advanced field, which tends to cluster workers in a few cities. However, most people don't work in such fields, so it's not a problem for them. I mean, if you want to work in tourism, or real estate or food production/processing, or medicine or law or architecture or countless other fields, the non-tier 1 cities have plenty of opportunities.

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#592
post #314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do.you have kids? "Having space and feeling like they can give them a better future" is about 1 thing. Money If you eliminated any of income taxes, or a combination of SS + reducing deficit spending (inflation), or the % of income going to heakthcare by eliminating its employee and employee subsidies (Medicares), there would be a populatiom boom. All you need to do is free people from having to make money, to meet ba…

> All you need to do is free people from having to make money, to meet basic needs. And people Will have children again. This meme needs to die. People in poorer countries have more children than people in rich countries. Within countries poorer communities have more children than richer ones. There might be some exceptions but this broadly holds true across the world.

two words

opportunity cost.

the opportunity cost of a parent in the 3rd world is negligible. income is very low as it is. theres not.much to do to make $$.

therefore, the benefit of parenting is MUCH higher, and the cost of raising a kid itself is low to zero , and in some cases positive (kids work on fielda or take care of siblings, therefore ROI is positive).

contrasts this with USA, where the opportunity cost of a developer to raise a kid is in the 200k level. ok so now what about alternatives for parenting?

well everything is regulated (daycare, schooling , extracurriculars), or hyperinflates (real estate), and every activity carriea an institutionalized bloat of an effective ponzi...to the benefit of the prior generation seniors in every activity.

So now what do you do? If raising kids is negative ROI and doing it yourself has a huge opportunity cost?

Is it a coincidence that wealthy families in wealthy contries like in Singapore, have more kids on average?

How do you explain that aberration?

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#593
post #370

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could you point me to these plenty cheap areas? I work remotely and may consider moving there.

You can get a house on a few acres (does need a little work but nothing crazy) in Tipperary for ~200k.

200k is not cheap.

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#594
post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They aren't doing jobs canadians wont do, they're doing jobs canadians wont do for the wages being offered. If they raised the wages, people would want to do them. Instead companies hire at very low wages, and very few people want to work for them, they apply to bring in TFW who are desperate. Their presence suppresses the wages because there's a basically unlimited pool of people willing to work for suppressed wages…

What is TFW?

Temporary Foreign Worker: https://www.canada.ca/en/employment-social-development/progr...

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#595
post #340

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If it doesn't collapse, then society may collapse? But there are plenty very cheap areas to buy houses or rent. Sure, many people don't want to live there, that's why it's cheap today. But it is a possibility nonetheless, one that is better than collapsing society. I'm always honestly confused why today it is seen as impossible to move to a cheap area? People have been doing this for generations (centuries?). It's…

But there are plenty very cheap areas to buy houses or rent. Sure, many people don't want to live there, that's why it's cheap today. But it is a possibility nonetheless, one that is better than collapsing society. I'm always honestly confused why today it is seen as impossible to move to a cheap area? People have been doing this for generations (centuries?). It's never the most fun solution, but it is a solution. Jo…

I don't know the US situation, but in my city in Europe, there is a factor 2 to 3 for flats in fashionable location compared to my location. I have the same traveling distance to the city center, but my location has less public transport options. Schools are ok, it's even better than in the fashionable district, and I have less criminality.

I've spoken to a few colleagues who just arrived in the city from another region, and they all went into the fashionable district without considering any other locations, because someone from that district told them any other district is bad. The fact is that if you bought your flat in this fashionable district, it doubled in value over 7 years, whereas in my district, prices went up 50% at most.

For me it is the same as the stock market, people follow the trend and smart folk get out before it goes downhill.

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#596
post #404

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"The question we set out to answer in this study is how the Swedish personal wealth distribution has evolved since 2007. This year, a right-wing party alliance was elected after a long period of Social Democratic rule and among its first reforms was to repeal the wealth tax ... Our main result concerning wealth inequality in Sweden is that it appears to have increased since 2007. The recorded rise in the Gini coeffic…

"wealth tax" is a different tax on income, inheritance tax ended in 2005.

Good point. Based on this paper from HHS back in 2000, the Wealth Gini in Sweden in 2000 was around 0.790 [0]. Btw this wealth Gini disparity between the 2000 and 2008 numbers is because the NBER's 2008 model used PPP I believe while HHS and Credit Suisse used nominal.

That said, even in 2000 there was a recognition that there is an intergenerational wealth transfer competent via foundations and families.

And clearly, the big picture takeaway that has been open knowledge in the economics world is that Sweden has consistently had extremely uneven asset ownership - at a level comparable to the United States and Netherlands, two other first world countries dealing with extreme amounts of instability due to asset ownership inequality. And at the end of the day, assets matter more than income.

[0] - http://fmwww.bc.edu/RePEc/es2000/0883.pdf

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#597

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is your argument boils down to: you are a guest in Germany and you are completely disposable so shut the fuck up or fuck off. It's a take one hears loudest from the AfD and old German Boomers, the same sort shouting at you in the street for some perceived infraction. I found this sort of attitude objectionable and xenophobic when I was living in my home country (the UK, where your argument is again mostly…

I think you're drawing the wrong conclusions from my comment based on your need to vent because you have a chip on your shoulder because you feel like Germany didn't roll the red carped enough for you. Whether you like it or not it's always the immigrants who should integrate into their new country, not the country to change centuries of culture and identity around for the immigrants. Germany is already welcoming eno…

I don't regret my choice, I met a nice woman here and I have a good job. But I don't adopt the unambiguous slave mentality that you advocate and I have my eyes more open about the country's problems than you.

>Venting on the internet that the country you voluntarily moved to doesn't give you the special treatment you were expecting, is just laughable and pointless.

Yes, and unrolling the red white and black in defence of the Reich online is also quite laughable, especially as you claim to not even be German. In the end we are both wasting our time, but I'd rather be on the internet trying to seriously discuss something than aping this strange ultranationalist performance piece of yours. Better still would be to not engage at all.

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#598
post #591

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's very true but there are two problems: 1. Most young aren't so lucky to be born in a small developed city with good universities, jobs and high quality of life, so they can stick around their families, which is why they leave. Look at most of Southern and Eastern Europe. 2. For your idea to work we need to have companies also creating jobs in smaller cities, but the reverse is happening: most companies now excl…

> 1. Most young aren't so lucky to be born in a small developed city with good universities, jobs and high quality of life, so they can stick around their families, which is why they leave. Look at most of Southern and Eastern Europe. I'm from Poland. In here, no matter where you're born, there's a city with an University within 100 km from you (and usually, it's much closer). A lot of those cities are smaller, affor…

Maybe Poland is just one of the exceptions of doing things right. This is definitely not the case in most of Romania, and even Greece and Portugal from what I've heard. Sure you can work in tourism, but tourism wages pay complete dogshit unless you own the business.

Sure, not everyone does tech jobs, but here in Romania, the young here mostly want white collar jobs which automatically means moving to the 5 rich developed big cities of the country as those have corporate jobs with good benefits, good universities and also good schools and good healthcare facilities and good-ish infrastructure.

Living in smaller cities is pretty bad as your salaries would be much lower than the big cities but your rent not that much lower. And also now the schools suck and so do the hospitals due to the best teachers and doctors mostly wanting to live in the richer developed big cities, so having a family there is mostly out of the question.

So moving to a big city is a no brainer for the young. Almost nobody being born in a small cities will stay there as an adult. The entire country is being depopulated and either moving to western Europe or crowding in the same 5 big cities with jobs, universities, good-ish schools and good-ish infrastructure.

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#599
post #577

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's true in Germany as well, but to get cheap property, you have to go very far from the city, and Germany not being that huge, you'll be close to the next metro area by then. Like, sure, a 120sqm house might be 400k in Hamburg and only 230k 60 minutes out to the north west (both needing an additional 25-50% of price in renovation costs), but the average net income is 30k/year and you're expected to have at least…

We've been living in Berlin for the last 10 year and the prices are making me consider looking outside the city (no other big cities that near Berlin, so there isn't that challenge you speak of). My main issue would be being more socially isolated as all of our local friends are in Berlin, kids having to adapt to new school/kindergarten (& find new friends), new work for my wife who doesn't work remote (but can find…

Yeah, doing it with kids is extra hard. I have friends in Berlin who moved to Prenzlauer Berg in like 2005 and got a great deal. At some point, with kids that apartment just didn't cut it any more, but they can't move too far for the reasons you mention, so they looked long and hard and accepted paying quite a bit more and moving to the other side of the Ring in Pankow. Not as nice, but close enough to keep the kids in the same schools.

I had hoped that remote work would relieve some of that pressure, but maybe it'll take a generation because many couples can't move anywhere because only one of them can work remotely, or because they don't want to uproot their kids. Not to mention that you'll still need a solid internet connection to work remotely, and that's still hit and miss if you go more rural. And if nobody wants to move to Saxony, the empty villages there don't really do anything on the supply side.

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#600

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It did not work in the history of isolated submissive societies, it will not work in the period of highly interacting and highly conscious global societies. For their sake I hope the title of one Aerosmith song will not become reality. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZK__9UIN5gk

History likes to repeat itself and I am sure they keep saying to themselves "this time it will work".

I can imagine too
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