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What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

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Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#311

I'm in the highest percentiles of income in Sweden (public data is available) and it doesn't matter. It's basically impossible for me to afford a house / apartment for my family in the best neighborhoods. What's the point? What is the point of trying to be a high performer if wealth can't be acquired by income? Why would I want to work for anyone in this country? Only way out is equity and that game is even harder to…

The only way to win is to stop playing the game by avoiding the "best" (more expensive) neighborhoods and towns.

If you work remotely, as software developers can, you don't have to give up salary either.

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#312
I wonder how much of it is secular. With populations weighted towards older workers demand for investment goods is high vs consumption goods where demand is low. As older workers are saving for retirement. As investment goods are not included in inflation measures like CPI. Low demand for consumption goods is causing low measures of inflation, causing central banks to keep rates low. While low interest rates and high demand for investment property is driving the value of dwellings up rapidly. I'd favour including property in CPI and increasing the deposit requirements...

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#313
post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the tendency of the rate of profit to fall was the underlying problem, basic needs and housing would be dirt cheap. That's not a problem - it's a good thing for consumers (and therefore the lower classes). It's the plethora of efforts to counter this which capitalists employ (mainly monopolization) to inflate prices anyway despite underlying increased efficiency (and less labor) that's the problem. The main proble…

> It's untenable without a government-enforced wealth-redistributing tax to offset that. I find it interesting that you point the problem (this is not capitalism but rather the lack of it) and then suggest that the government (which made this whole system possible) somehow fixes this. The government is the problem and a top down approach doesn't work (it didn't work for the soviets and it's not going to work now). Th…

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Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

item 3 is solving the wrong problem. people will have babies when they have space and feel like they can give their kids a better future. trying to move people into dense urban living it the opposite of space needed for kids. right now, we cannot give kids a better future in the current billionaire run world. we need to depopulate the billionaires and with the freed up wealth, fix the environmental problems so we hav…

Do.you have kids? "Having space and feeling like they can give them a better future" is about 1 thing. Money If you eliminated any of income taxes, or a combination of SS + reducing deficit spending (inflation), or the % of income going to heakthcare by eliminating its employee and employee subsidies (Medicares), there would be a populatiom boom. All you need to do is free people from having to make money, to meet ba…

> All you need to do is free people from having to make money, to meet basic needs. And people Will have children again.

This meme needs to die. People in poorer countries have more children than people in rich countries. Within countries poorer communities have more children than richer ones. There might be some exceptions but this broadly holds true across the world.

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know about Ireland, but in the US the home ownership rate is higher than it was at any point in the 20th century. So however bad the situation is it doesn't seem to actually prevent people from buying a house.

right but I'm guessing a huge percentage is baby boomers or Gen X'ers who bought a house 10 or more years ago. I'm curious to see a graph of home ownership rate history for people between 25 and 39 years old, I'm guessing it is lower now than 30 years ago.

A majority of millennials are homeowners. It's maybe two or three points behind where the boomers were at their age.

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#316
post #263

It seems like it's the same story everywhere I look. Housing is the main driver of inequality and there is little change happening. We have the same problem here in Germany. I am currently living in Munich to finish my CS Master's at TUM and build a startup, and it is absolutely impossible to find anything remotely affordable. I am supported by two startup scholarships and make enough to get by, but no landlord even…

It's definitely not every city in Germany that has this problem. You're trying to live in one of the objectively best parts of Germany by a lot of stats and thus you're competing with a lot of folks. I'm honestly sick of this whining about rent in top-tier areas. Living there is a luxury, given the major move to cities and scarcity, driven by insane regulations and basic logic. There are plenty of cities in Germany w…

this is glossing over corporate investment into rental housing past the 2008 crisis.

there are drivers beyond "Munich is sexy + supply and demand"

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#317
post #238
post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the 90s I didn’t have a house, I was in diapers. In my experience growing up, everyone I knew could afford to buy a house on a single salary when 28-30, so that’s what I expect for myself. Anything other than that is a regression.

So, you're saying that when interest rates first dropped mega-low, people could afford a house? But... that's what caused the current problem, some say. Rates too low, for a decade, causing a housing bubble. It sounds to me like what you recall, was an aberration. EDIT: Don't get me wrong. I think the bar to home ownership should be lower. But at the same time, I think it hasn't been low, for 50+ years.

People forget about the old interest rates. I have a credit card with a lower rate than my parents' mortgage back in the 80s.

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And it's not just Munich. Every city in Germany has this problem. Well, rising cost of living is a reality everywhere (it’s called inflation). But Munich is really extreme. You might want to consider moving to Eastern Germany. If you pursue an academic career, you might want to watch for positions in Magdeburg, Greifswald or Leipzig. > How the hell are we ever supposed to build up some savings ETFs (exchange traded…

If eastern Germany is still affordable like that then it might be for a reason. Don't move there unless you pass as a German and speak the language.

>If eastern Germany is still affordable like that then it might be for a reason.

I'm not German, but you can't complain there's no affordable housing when there actually is, but you just don't want it. Just because you only want to move only to a specific city you like, that has the "right vibe", where others also want to live, it's not society's fault you're too picky and you think you're too good for other more affordable cities. Beggars can't be choosers. That's like complaining about starving with a plate of Big Macs next to you because it's not what you like to eat.

>Don't move there unless you pass as a German and speak the language.

That's total nonsense. Plenty of foreigners who don't "pass as German" live in East German cities just fine. And why is it so bad that you have to learn the local language when you move somewhere? Do you not need to speak English when you move to the UK/US? The official language in Germany is German, not English. Best learn it if you move there out of respect for the host country and to integrate and become part of society.

If you're lazy about integration and learning German, and only want to move somewhere just to make money and party in expat bubbles secluded from the German society, in cities where English is the majority spoken language, then you can't complain they're unaffordable when everyone other white collar yippie expat wants to do the same. Again, beggars can't be choosers. That's like complaining there's rush hour traffic jams, when you're part of the traffic jam.

And I got news for you (not you specifically, but others who have this mentality): whenever you move to a new country as a foreigner, you'll always be at a disadvantage for housing, especially if you don't speak the language, and just because you got a visa for a white collar job at some startup making the fifth best food delivery app, doesn't make you a special snowflake worthy of the German society to turn itself upside down for you and roll the red carpet and make life super easy for you. It's still your job to integrate in the country you choose to move including dealing with the unpleasant things.

You(We)'re not special. 99% chance you were given a visa and got hired there not because you've got some super rare skills nobody there had, but because of wage dumping. You moving there puts downward pressure on wages and upward pressure on rents, meaning the government, landlords, and business owners can profit from your presence there. We're basically cattle in the economic machine. You should be aware of these facts and factor them into your decision when it comes to immigrating somewhere, as it's never a free ticket to El Dorado as many delusional white collar expats (tech workers especially) think.

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

item 3 is solving the wrong problem. people will have babies when they have space and feel like they can give their kids a better future. trying to move people into dense urban living it the opposite of space needed for kids. right now, we cannot give kids a better future in the current billionaire run world. we need to depopulate the billionaires and with the freed up wealth, fix the environmental problems so we hav…

Do.you have kids? "Having space and feeling like they can give them a better future" is about 1 thing. Money If you eliminated any of income taxes, or a combination of SS + reducing deficit spending (inflation), or the % of income going to heakthcare by eliminating its employee and employee subsidies (Medicares), there would be a populatiom boom. All you need to do is free people from having to make money, to meet ba…

I think we need to change the income tax code to massively incentivize people to get married and have kids. I’d support increasing the tax rate pretty massively and then introducing a tax deduction of like $20k per kid.

For instance a couple with 3 kids and a home would have around $70k-$100k in deductions (60k kids, 10k-40k in state/local taxes etc). If they had an income of $120k it would be adjusted to like $30k and they’d pay essentially no taxes.

It’s a deduction and not a credit specifically so people that the state isn’t incentivizing clients of the state to have kids.

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#320

It seems like it's the same story everywhere I look. Housing is the main driver of inequality and there is little change happening. We have the same problem here in Germany. I am currently living in Munich to finish my CS Master's at TUM and build a startup, and it is absolutely impossible to find anything remotely affordable. I am supported by two startup scholarships and make enough to get by, but no landlord even…

this is crazy. in 2015 i paid 480 eur in berlin for a 20qm room, then 1050 for 101 qm (on 48k eur in a 3 person WG) and then 1355 for 50 qm in hamburg (neubau).

never had an 8% increase tho, that’s rough. it was a different world in 2005 for sure

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