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What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

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Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#81

Post by varispeed »

tptacek wrote: post #72
varispeed wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

This is a conspiracy theory about a global suit-and-tie version of TED Talks whose members consistently underperform the S&P 500. The World Economic Forum sounds important, like the IMF is, but it's nothing at all like that. It's a convention, in the ComicCon sense, that happens to be frequented by high-status people, because high-status people go where other high-status people go. Ironically, talking about them as i…

> It's a convention, in the ComicCon sense

This is a common way people use to rationalise it. But how do you think decisions are made when there is group of people where each one has a part to play to execute a policy? The word you are looking for is a meeting. People meet, discuss, share concerns and agree plan. At this level, this is not something you can do over a Zoom call as you don't know who may be in the room and there are other security risks to consider. So they organise ComicCon, in a semi-open fashion. After all, what pleb like me and you can do about it?

Even if you write online, like I do, you can see I am getting dismissed, often ridiculed and often ad hominem follow as well.

They can totally do it and there is nothing people can do about it, so they don't even have to hide that much.

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#82

Post by jjoonathan »

dogma1138 wrote: post #34
jjoonathan wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Misguided handout-seeking poor are not stopping construction. Rent control doesn't solve the problem, but it doesn't cause the problem either. > NIMBYsm in disguise Yes, this is the real problem: the same capitalist incentive structure that pulls forward the future returns of a new housing investment also pulls forward the consequences of future supply normalization onto current owners. Capitalism also guarantees tha…

Forced rent control definitely causes a problem as it suppresses supply.

We agree that suppressed supply is the problem. You think the suppression is caused by clueless and misguided poor people. I think the suppression is caused by clued-in rich people pursuing enormous financial malincentives.

Do you disagree that the malincentives exist? Or do you think that clueless poor people are a more effective political bloc than clued-in rich people pursuing enormous financial malincentives?

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#83

Post by jltsiren »

jdmoreira wrote: post #61

I'm in the highest percentiles of income in Sweden (public data is available) and it doesn't matter. It's basically impossible for me to afford a house / apartment for my family in the best neighborhoods. What's the point? What is the point of trying to be a high performer if wealth can't be acquired by income? Why would I want to work for anyone in this country? Only way out is equity and that game is even harder to…

Sweden is full of old money, or at least it looks like that from a Finnish perspective. The problem with old money is that if you simply invest the money passively and don't do anything stupid, the next generation is going to be even richer. Both in relative and absolute terms.

Being able to live in the most desirable areas is based on relative wealth. If there is a lot of old money, it's harder to make it to the top in a single generation.

The usual tools for leveling the playing field are wealth tax and inheritance tax. I'm under the impression that Sweden abolished both a couple of decades ago.

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#84

Post by LegitShady »

rhaway84773 wrote: post #45

The Sweden story sounds so much like the SF story. Area doesn’t building housing, leading to a massive increase in house prices and a destruction of class mobility as the rich get richer (as their houses get more valuable) and the poor get poorer (as they pay more to rent the same living space). The growing wealth inequality leads to all sorts of other dysfunction including increased crime, worsening services, etc. a…

In Canada even if they do build housing

1) the immigration rate is so high it isn't enough to keep up

2) the house values in areas that dont build in enough housing have skyrocketed, and smart homeowners in those areas have decided to sell and move to places with lower house prices and purchase more than one, which of course rockets the price even in the places that do build a lot. So even in provinces where lots of housing is built, immigration from other countries and other provinces blows up the housing prices anyways.

3) The government doesn't want to do anything about it because immigration is how they're keeping down wages, and since housing has become so much of the GDP they're terrified of what it would mean for the economy if there was a price crash anyways, so they don't look at policies that would fight the housing price explosion in fear of what the economy will look like if they do.

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#85

Post by tptacek »

varispeed wrote: post #81
tptacek wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a conspiracy theory about a global suit-and-tie version of TED Talks whose members consistently underperform the S&P 500. The World Economic Forum sounds important, like the IMF is, but it's nothing at all like that. It's a convention, in the ComicCon sense, that happens to be frequented by high-status people, because high-status people go where other high-status people go. Ironically, talking about them as i…

> It's a convention, in the ComicCon sense This is a common way people use to rationalise it. But how do you think decisions are made when there is group of people where each one has a part to play to execute a policy? The word you are looking for is a meeting. People meet, discuss, share concerns and agree plan. At this level, this is not something you can do over a Zoom call as you don't know who may be in the room…

One way you can tell it's a conspiracy theory is that people talk about the WEF, which has no power other than arranging the name tags on the lunch tables at the gatherings, rather than the actual policy makers making decisions.

Try a thought experiment: contravene the will of the World Economic Forum. What happens next? You don't get to go next year? Statistically, that means your company performance will significantly improve!

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#86

Post by sbmthakur »

jokethrowaway wrote: post #40
timkam wrote: post #10

A key problem in Sweden -- besides the weird interaction of privatization and legacy over-regulation -- is that the current inflation and rising interest rates break the social contract: a relatively even salary distribution allowed many people to have a solid middle-class life style, recently albeit with never-ending mortgages. Now, the interest rates are too high for these mortgages to be even superficially sustain…

It's the same everywhere, not only in Sweden. What a surprise. The government got your taxes AND screwed you with inflation over time. Then COVID happened and they had to print more, postponing and aggravating the crisis. Now it's time to pay and nobody will take the blame. When are people going to rebel?

What kind of measures by the government and can help the situation?

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#87

Post by tannhaeuser »

tpmx wrote: post #27
ChuckNorris89 wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but try dating and building social circles while living in rural areas as a single 20-30 something year old. Of course young people want to live in dense walkable areas where it's easy to find other like minded people. Isn't Swedish population also statistically one of the biggest sufferers of loneliness in the world and also one of the largest consumers of antidepressants? Or was that Finland? I'm not sure.

There are plenty of more affordable, densely walkable city areas in Sweden. Every single city in the country is built this way, from the smallest to the largest. That's not the factor. The factor at play here is that these all these people want to have a cheap apartment in the same 10 km^2 that's designated as the cool place. When that can't happen because of physics, they claim society is breaking down. > Isn't Swed…

> all these people want to have a cheap apartment in the same 10 km^2 that's designated as the cool place.

Which, incidentally, is cool because not everyone's living there ;) Don't know about Stockholm, but I guess those places are the same 19th/early 20th century quarters like in every other European city build for renting out to an upward moving middle class and popular exactly because they're meeting the representative needs of their tenants then and now.

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#88

Post by f1shy »

moltar wrote: post #13
timkam wrote: post #10

A key problem in Sweden -- besides the weird interaction of privatization and legacy over-regulation -- is that the current inflation and rising interest rates break the social contract: a relatively even salary distribution allowed many people to have a solid middle-class life style, recently albeit with never-ending mortgages. Now, the interest rates are too high for these mortgages to be even superficially sustain…

I think you could say exactly the same story about Canada. And imagine many other countries soon. Interest rates will spoil the party.

And Germany, ans so many other countries

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#89

Post by sumedh »

LegitShady wrote: post #84
rhaway84773 wrote: post #45

The Sweden story sounds so much like the SF story. Area doesn’t building housing, leading to a massive increase in house prices and a destruction of class mobility as the rich get richer (as their houses get more valuable) and the poor get poorer (as they pay more to rent the same living space). The growing wealth inequality leads to all sorts of other dysfunction including increased crime, worsening services, etc. a…

In Canada even if they do build housing 1) the immigration rate is so high it isn't enough to keep up 2) the house values in areas that dont build in enough housing have skyrocketed, and smart homeowners in those areas have decided to sell and move to places with lower house prices and purchase more than one, which of course rockets the price even in the places that do build a lot. So even in provinces where lots of…

> The government doesn't want to do anything

Looks like the voters dont want to do anything either, if they keep re-electing the same party/politicians.

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#90

Post by jdmoreira »

jltsiren wrote: post #83
jdmoreira wrote: post #61

I'm in the highest percentiles of income in Sweden (public data is available) and it doesn't matter. It's basically impossible for me to afford a house / apartment for my family in the best neighborhoods. What's the point? What is the point of trying to be a high performer if wealth can't be acquired by income? Why would I want to work for anyone in this country? Only way out is equity and that game is even harder to…

Sweden is full of old money, or at least it looks like that from a Finnish perspective. The problem with old money is that if you simply invest the money passively and don't do anything stupid, the next generation is going to be even richer. Both in relative and absolute terms. Being able to live in the most desirable areas is based on relative wealth. If there is a lot of old money, it's harder to make it to the top…

I agree with everything you said. Maybe I should move to Finland! I like sauna and the all the Finns I met were wonderful people!
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