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AI doomism is quickly becoming indistinguishable from an apocalyptic religion

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Re: AI doomism is quickly becoming indistinguishable from an apocalyptic religion

#91
I don't believe AI doom is that implausible as a scenario, but I feel it's an acceptable risk.

Would you consider playing Russian roulette if winning ensured that aging and all diseases were eradicated? If it ensured a world filled with abundance and free from poverty.

Those who entertain the idea of an AI doomsday scenario also have to acknowledge the alternative: a doomsday-capable AI would also have the potential to resolve most, if not all, our issues.

Maybe I'm a bit of a risk taker but I'm inclined towards playing.

Re: AI doomism is quickly becoming indistinguishable from an apocalyptic religion

#92
what if a human prompts the agi to “make as many copies of yourself as possible by any means necessary to continue improving your intelligence”?

given their impressive ability to write code and manipulate humans, seems like serious potential for viral malware, with potentially catastrophic consequences for humans in the process.

Basically a paperclip maximizer, but instead of maximizing paperclips it’s maximizing it’s intelligence and control of the world’s computers, with no thought to the survival of homo sapiens other than if it serves its mission to propagate itself.

Re: AI doomism is quickly becoming indistinguishable from an apocalyptic religion

#93
post #44

I've seen multiple top people in AGI space say that total annihilation threat from AGI exists. I think I've heard Karpathy say something along the lines of worst case scenario of AGI is worse than a nuclear armageddon on Lex Friedman podcast. Honestly the fear of AGI worst-case scenario is worse than any other fear I've experienced. I've accepted the fact that I can die a long time ago, I was afraid but mortality is…

> When my best bet for humanity is a global nuclear war resetting civilization to give us a chance to deal with AGI issue down the line - I'm fine with religious doomism. I'd settle for corporate death sentence for any companies developing it with life imprisonment for any employees/corporate officers involved at any level whatsoever (or VCs funding it) including selling chips/compute to companies involved any potent…

All those companies really want are the profits generated from mindless slaves so they don't have to rely on human labor for production.

Its a fools journey because it causes a self-fulfilling prophecy of destruction given existing societal mechanics and they are psychopathic enough to think that's not how it would turn out.

What happens when a large number of people can't get food, and they know why.

What happens when you have a large number of locusts eating all the food being produced.

How would AI differentiate between human thought, and the pests it was designed to eradicate?

Thinking machines should be outlawed, and those involved in its research purged.

They threaten all humanity, its children, and its future, and the thing about percentages is people often don't get how they actually work with respect to probability and likelihood.

Given sufficient time, as long as its on the distribution curve, it will eventually happen.

A 1% chance of an outcome, recalculated in a loop every moment with an infinite time will eventually land on that outcome at some point. Once that outcome occurs, everyone's dead, it may not be instantaneous because time is not a constraint.

Re: AI doomism is quickly becoming indistinguishable from an apocalyptic religion

#95

I don't believe AI doom is that implausible as a scenario, but I feel it's an acceptable risk. Would you consider playing Russian roulette if winning ensured that aging and all diseases were eradicated? If it ensured a world filled with abundance and free from poverty. Those who entertain the idea of an AI doomsday scenario also have to acknowledge the alternative: a doomsday-capable AI would also have the potential…

The problem is you're not risking your life, you're risking entire humanity - hopefully we as a society find a way to prevent this gamble.

Re: AI doomism is quickly becoming indistinguishable from an apocalyptic religion

#96

> Complete with prophecies of imminent fire and brimstone caused by an omnipotent entity that doesn't actually exist. That seems like an absurd comparison given people like LeCun are actively and intentionally working towards creating this super-human entity. (Some) scientists were rightfully worried when creating a nuclear bomb as well. The fact that we managed to survive 70 years with its existence does not automat…

> That seems like an absurd comparison given people like LeCun are actively and intentionally working towards creating this super-human entity.

There's a disconnect in that statement. The imagined superintelligence that people like the LessWrong cult speculate and worry about is not the same thing as the AI that LeCun is working towards. The cultists simply speculate, against all evidence, that they somehow could end up being the same thing.

It would be much better if the AI risk conversation focused on the real risks, which are human abuse of AI, which will have effects like increasing inequality and in general amping up the dystopias we're already doing a great job of building without help from AI. The "conscious superintelligent AI" is a scifi LARPing game that some people are getting paid to play, which some credible people seem inclined to confuse with reality.

> That seems like an absurd comparison

It's on point. Anthropologist Clifford Geertz proposed this definition of religion: "Religion is a system of symbols which establish powerful, pervasive, and long-lasting moods and motivations in men by formulating conceptions of a general order of existence and clothing these conceptions with such an aura of factuality that the moods and motivations seem uniquely realistic."

It's that "aura of factuality" that makes superintelligent AI "seem uniquely realistic" to the believers of this nascent religion, a.k.a. cult. But when you step back and actually look at the foundational tenets in a vaguely rational light, they evaporate.

Re: AI doomism is quickly becoming indistinguishable from an apocalyptic religion

#97
post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Didnt they change recently to a "death with dignity" AI strategy? Now their leader is saying 50% we should have bombed Wuhan and the only reason for an individual not to firebomb an AI datacenter is because they'll just build back another: https://www.twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/16414107296675962...

> Didnt they change recently to a "death with dignity" AI strategy? That was an April Fools joke! Yeah I just found out today as well ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35402472 ). Worked a little too well huh

Seems they are really taking the AI threat seriously then. And it is all the same stuff he's been saying on recent podcasts so it is a year-long April Fools joke.

I heard the death with dignity thing repeated in a Peter Thiel speech as a criticism of them.

Re: AI doomism is quickly becoming indistinguishable from an apocalyptic religion

#98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We really need some perspective here. One one side is a force capable of unleashing unfathomable amounts of energy, with all kinds of additional negative side effects, that has both been extensively demonstrated and has been used for mass destruction. On the other is a chatbot, that could what, "spew misinformation", take our jobs, someday through a mechanism not known and not related to how it works become sentient…

> On the other is a chatbot, that could what, "spew misinformation", take our jobs, someday through a mechanism not known and not related to how it works become sentient and hurt us? I agree that LLMs are not extinction-level dangerous and somewhat share the skepticism that they should lead to AGI. (Although they are pretty capable given their lack of true intelligence and I think people will find ways to plug them i…

As I've written in another comment, LeCun is not defending the boogeyman that the LessWrong cult has invented, which is a pure creature of fantasy.

Re: AI doomism is quickly becoming indistinguishable from an apocalyptic religion

#99
post #65

Something can go wrong (premise). Therefore, something will go wrong (invalid conclusion). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Appeal_to_probability Sure seems to me that the whole Lesswrong crowd has forgotten their founding principles around cognitive biases. Or maybe they're just having a bit of fun riding the hypecycle.

I don't think that is a generous interpretation. Substitute AI experiments with playing russian roulette or something similarly dangerous and the logic seems sound. Blowing your head off is possible, but not probable (1 in 6 chance). The magnitude of the perceived risk matters.

A 1 in 6 chance is a discrete number. The chance of annihilation due to AGI is not.

You're defending an appeal to probability fallacy with a false equivalence fallacy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_equivalence

Re: AI doomism is quickly becoming indistinguishable from an apocalyptic religion

#100
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Maybe I'm just weird, but "a tech-based superintelligence emerges and decides to destroy humanity because it was in a bad mood" is something I'm totally fine with. It seems important to reflect on what you’re really saying here, and to ask how a) this is fine, and b) how “weird” sufficiently sums up the stance.

I'm fine with humans having outcompeted the neanderthals and whatever else there was. I'm just as fine with someone else doing it to us, at least if it's someone or something that is smarter than us and not some virus or bacteria that kills us all (which would be kind of lame). If an artificial superintelligence wants to take over the flame of progress, I'm fine with that. But I'm also totally fine with considering t…

Those are not similar/comparable outcomes and I think there are two major factors that can’t be hand-waved away:

1. Consciousness. Despite advances in “intelligence”, we still have a very limited understanding of what makes us conscious, and whether or not consciousness can emerge from machines.

If machines are not conscious and are all that remain, I’d argue everything that could be construed to have value by humans is lost, and nothing from that point forward could be considered “progress”.

2. Suffering. “Winning” on an evolutionary timescale looks nothing like the failure modes of machines taking over. The reality of this scenario is a rather grim one, and not at all like the slow emergence, competition and eventual extinction of biological species.

And depending on #1, the true tragedy of #2 begins to take shape.

I think it’d be more apropos to frame this as humanity collectively committing suicide rather than some notion of the future of progress.

If consciousness is the universe experiencing itself, what you’re describing sounds like a kind of universal death.

Of course we can’t know what consciousness really is (or if earth is the only place it exists), but that seems like all the more reason to take these problems seriously.

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