I strongly suspect the first AGI will come sooner than expected on the back of a "glue" AI that can intelligently bond together a web of narrow AIs and utilities. I got access to the wolfram plugin for chatGPT, and it turned it from a math dummy to a math genius overnight. A small step for sure, but a hint of what's to come.
I agree, I suspect AGI is possible right now with a similar system only slightly more sophisticated than this one. The right "glue" for existing models, and plugins to existing data sources all coordinated in a system. GTP-4 would do the managing, and handling, and some simple template API and handler script would allow it to call instances of itself or other models, track recursion depth, and automatically remind GT…
I think the regulation of the feedback loops required for sustained, deliberate thought, and interaction with the world, will be the most difficult piece of the AGI puzzle, and might not exist today.
New ideas are "hallucinations" of our "existing data", that we eventually get around to proving. An AGI will require these "hallucinations", inhibition and excitation of them. I think it's going to be a tricky balance [1], for sane output.
1. "Creative minds 'mimic schizophrenia", https://www.bbc.com/news/10154775