I strongly suspect the first AGI will come sooner than expected on the back of a "glue" AI that can intelligently bond together a web of narrow AIs and utilities. I got access to the wolfram plugin for chatGPT, and it turned it from a math dummy to a math genius overnight. A small step for sure, but a hint of what's to come.
Imo your post fundamentally misunderstands a few things, but mainly how Wolfram works. Wolfram can be seen as a "database" that stores a lot of human mathematical information (along with related algorithms). Wolfram does not make new math. A corollary here is that AGI needs to have the ability to create new math to be truly AGI. But unless fed something like, e.g. the Principia, I don't think we could ever get a stochastic LLM to ever derive 1+1=2 from first principles (unless specifically trained to do so).
Keep in mind that proving 1+1=2 from first principles isn't even new math (new math would be proving the Poincaré conjecture before Perelman did it, for example).