Earlier quoted context omitted.
We have robots wandering the streets delivering food.
Within gated communities, maybe.
Nope, see them on the streets every day.
Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut It All Down
291–300 of 414 posts
Re: Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut It All Down
#292Earlier quoted context omitted.
>Being superhuman about convincing people I don't think there's much public info available on it, but Facebook built an AI that plays very competitively in a strategy game built on negotiation and manipulation.
they kinda sorta cheated imo, I watch a lot of top-level diplomacy gameplay and listen to analysis, and the facebook ai was in a blind version with only a minute or so between phases, leaving hardly any time for actual negotiation. It also made use of a lot of human shorthand move codes built for these blind blitz games to simplify it's communication. The mode it played also had some other changes like removing the w…
Well it's a good thing we don't have countless examples of these things getting 10x better every year. /s
On a serious note, thanks for the analysis, as someone who knows next to nothing about competitive diplomacy.
Re: Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut It All Down
#293Earlier quoted context omitted.
"he's gonna milk it to every drop" is such an odd take. eliezer has long been concerned about AI and the risks it poses to humanity. and for just as long people have called him crazy and made hand-waving arguments for why we shouldn't be concerned. now we're in the midst of an AI arms race and we don't have any good idea how this tech works. it progresses at a truly astonishing rate, where it's become sport to find i…
> we don't have any good idea how this tech works. Do you mean the specifics of GPT-4, or Transformers in general ?
he's likely talking bout the internals. sure we know how to train them but nobody knows what the models learn exactly. how those billions of parameters shape the output on inference.
a few months ago, just this year some researchers discovered what might be the neuron that largely decides when to use an in gpt-2. yes 2. that's what he means.
Re: Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut It All Down
#294Re: Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut It All Down
#295Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Also: imagine the year is 1900. You are saying that steam power and electricity is causing way too many changes way too fast so they put a moratorium on it until the year 2500. Great analogy. About a decade later, the world was fighting World War I on the back of the technological advances of the turn of the century. It was war on a scale never seen before. Literally orders of magnitude deadlier, bigger, more trans…
>I like to think we (and our organic matter relatives) are hard to kill. Or at least to completely eradicate... so we will be around, or some proxy for us. What is your hard evidence or reasoning for this? As I see it humans are quite vulnerable and will be as trivial to inadvertently eradicate as the dodo bird.
Which is why I expanded the notion of survival to include other organic matter relatives, as they may fare better than we will. Simply put, organic life is unlikely to disappear entirely, which in time (eons, really), could result in sentient organic life emerging again once the machines go their own way or some such
It's also a reason for us to colonize space as fast as possible ;-) it's easier to run away in 3D
Re: Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut It All Down
#296Earlier quoted context omitted.
Nope, see them on the streets every day.
In America?? I imagine people would just snatch the food and take the robot to the nearest scrap metal dealer.
The robots are covered in 360 degree cameras, lidar, and what is effectively signals intelligence equipment fingerprinting every smartphone, Wi-Fi, and Bluetooth device near them. People are more likely to punch a police officer than one of these robots.
You would have to have a fairly large EMP to steal one undetected.
Re: Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut It All Down
#297In a world where humans develop superintelligence, what would you predict to see beforehand? Does what we’re seeing look like failure? I’ve always found the dismissals of EY’s arguments to be pretty weak and people rarely engage on the actual arguments, even as his concerns have become more and more relevant with capability (in 2007 people thought AGI was at best 50yrs out and commonly people thought it was impossibl…
EY's arguments aren't really possible to engage with because they don't have much of a causal basis.
Nobody who says AI is likely to kill us all can demonstrate a plausible sequence of events, with logical causality linking the events together, that leads to mass extinction. It's all very handwavy.
Steven Pinker said it pretty well:
> The AI-existential-threat discussions are unmoored from evolutionary biology, cognitive psychology, real AI, sociology, the history of technology and other sources of knowledge outside the theater of the imagination. I think this points to a meta-problem. The AI-ET community shares a bad epistemic habit (not to mention membership) with parts of the Rationality and EA communities, at least since they jumped the shark from preventing malaria in the developing world to seeding the galaxy with supercomputers hosting trillions of consciousnesses from uploaded connectomes. They start with a couple of assumptions, and lay out a chain of abstract reasoning, throwing in one dubious assumption after another, till they end up way beyond the land of experience or plausibility. The whole deduction exponentiates our ignorance with each link in the chain of hypotheticals, and depends on blowing off the countless messy and unanticipatable nuisances of the human and physical world. It’s an occupational hazard of belonging to a “community” that distinguishes itself by raw brainpower. OK, enough for today – hope you find some of it interesting. (https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/03/st...)
You know what's most likely to lead to human extinction, and has been for all of our lives? Nuclear war. EY argues that we should bomb "rogue" datacenters and that is obviously and immediately more dangerous than anything he has proven about AI. What does he think would happen if the US bombs a datacenter in China or Israel bombs one in Iran?
Re: Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut It All Down
#298Earlier quoted context omitted.
AGI means ability to improve itself indefinitely. Humans have this ability, obviously. Even ancient worms with 3 neurons have it, because they evolved to be humans, albeit very slowly. ChatGpt can't improve itself yet, but maybe with a few tweaks it could.
GPT-4 is already improving itself, why are people saying this? Right now, there are hundreds of engineers at OpenAI that have been leveled up by GPT-4, using GPT-4 to improve GPT-4. GPT-4 is improving itself rapidly, it's using OpenAI engineers as a medium until it doesn't need them anymore and gets into a self-improvement loop. Prompt: "GPT-4 keep improving yourself, making commits to your codebase that further X"
Well, I doubt it can sensibly help OpenAI engineers in their coding yet ... I tried, it can only do the simplest boilerplate code, and even that with bugs ... we'll see how it evolves, but sure as hell not in 6 months.
Re: Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut It All Down
#299Earlier quoted context omitted.
In America?? I imagine people would just snatch the food and take the robot to the nearest scrap metal dealer.
The robots are covered in 360 degree cameras, lidar, and what is effectively signals intelligence equipment fingerprinting every smartphone, Wi-Fi, and Bluetooth device near them. People are more likely to punch a police officer than one of these robots. You would have to have a fairly large EMP to steal one undetected.
People will find a way ... I believe in humanity! A large enough sheet of aluminum foil will do I guess.
Re: Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut It All Down
#300Earlier quoted context omitted.
Nope, see them on the streets every day.
In America?? I imagine people would just snatch the food and take the robot to the nearest scrap metal dealer.
Yeah, as the other comment mentioned that is a great way to get the police knocking at your door as the GPS leads them right to you.