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Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut It All Down

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Re: Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut It All Down

#111

Post by tptacek »

ilaksh wrote: post #33
anongraddebt wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, I wonder sometimes how many people gloss over what it would mean for an “ASI” to exist. We would - if successful - effectively be creating a supernatural being (at least, there wouldn’t be much of a distinction between it and one). Sure, there’s hype, and FUD, and fatalism, etc. But, if you believe the creation of such a thing is within your lifetime then it would be difficult to find many higher priority issue…

GPT-4 is superhuman in some ways.

In the same sense as a Sinclair ZX80 was.

Re: Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut It All Down

#112

Post by woah »

anongraddebt wrote: post #26
scarmig wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Self-aggrandizement isn't anything foreign to Eliezer, but he's genuinely terrified. Milking it for every drop doesn't really capture what he's doing.

Yeah, I wonder sometimes how many people gloss over what it would mean for an “ASI” to exist. We would - if successful - effectively be creating a supernatural being (at least, there wouldn’t be much of a distinction between it and one). Sure, there’s hype, and FUD, and fatalism, etc. But, if you believe the creation of such a thing is within your lifetime then it would be difficult to find many higher priority issue…

Being forced to read terrible rationalist Harry Potter fanfics over and over again

Re: Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut It All Down

#113

Post by anigbrowl »

Analemma_ wrote: post #40
Imnimo wrote: post #35

I feel like if I actually believed that the death of all biological life was imminent and that the only way to forestall it was to bomb data centers, I'd spend a lot more time planning how to bomb data centers and a lot less time curating Shoggoth memes on my web forum. On the other hand, if I were more concerned with self-aggrandizement, writing doomsaying thinkpieces for Time is exactly what I'd spend my time on.

These types of arguments-- "if you actually believed X, you'd be doing Y"-- always ring false to me. If you genuinely believed that the death of all biological life was imminent and the only way to forestall it was to bomb data centers and you were a normal, functional human being who did not want to bomb data centers, you'd probably sink into hopeless depression. Which is, in fact, exactly what Eliezer has done - if…

I think you underestimate the motivating power of an overwhelming belief. This is a story about a very ordinary guy who decided that it was in fact time to start bombing data centers and turned it into a project.

https://leftcoastrightwatch.org/articles/he-went-to-the-capi...

Re: Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut It All Down

#114

Post by VirusNewbie »

ilaksh wrote: post #34
dougmwne wrote: post #14

The Butlerian Jihad is officially no longer science fiction. Man may not be replaced. “The Letter” was obviously self serving drivel from people who want time to get in the game. Google does care about AI existential risk, they care about beating Microsoft by any means possible, including declaring a moratorium, but continuing to make progress behind the scenes. This guy is the real deal. I can imagine he would perso…

What does the word "super" mean to you? In some ways, GPT4 is already superintelligent. So is ChatGPT 3.5. Do you know anyone who can translate natural language to code as fast as GPT 3.5, or, given a few paragraphs of reference text, perfectly tutor a child on any subject under the sun at a moment's notice like GPT4 is doing for Khan Academy? How many artists do you know who can produce almost any style of artwork w…

But there are plenty of intellectual things it cannot do, that I can.

Re: Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut It All Down

#115

Post by anigbrowl »

Analemma_ wrote: post #46
Imnimo wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think if I seriously thought all biological life was about to be destroyed, I could get over my distaste for bombing data centers.

No, that doesn't follow. It's possible to think that all biological life was about to be destroyed but also believe some combination of 1) it's hopeless to bomb data centers because I'd quickly be stopped by the authorities and remaining data centers would beef up security, and nothing would be accomplished, 2) in the past, other people who have had beliefs of this sort ("violence is the only answer") have been wrong…

But he's already in favor of bombing data centers, he just hopes someone else will do it on his behalf. So he clearly doesn't care about #2 & 3. #1 boils down to the fact that it would be kind of difficult, but that is no barrier to many people.

I can tell you for a fact that there are people with the knowledge, motivation, and track record of doing that kind of crime that will pick up this jeremiad of his and incorporate it into their existing corpus of theoretic justifications, mostly but not exclusively built around the writings of Ted Kaczynski. Not a large number of people, fortunately, but imagination and smarts matter more than numbers in that context.

Re: Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut It All Down

#116

Post by anigbrowl »

sullyj3 wrote: post #91
Imnimo wrote: post #35

I feel like if I actually believed that the death of all biological life was imminent and that the only way to forestall it was to bomb data centers, I'd spend a lot more time planning how to bomb data centers and a lot less time curating Shoggoth memes on my web forum. On the other hand, if I were more concerned with self-aggrandizement, writing doomsaying thinkpieces for Time is exactly what I'd spend my time on.

Unilateral terrorism seems like a great way to get the rest of the planet to unite against you, which is why he advocates for data-center bombing only in circumstances where earth has already coordinated to establish an international order banning them.

The real world is a lot messier than the TV version.

Re: Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut It All Down

#117

Post by dinobones »

13years wrote: post #16

I think we are trying to solve impossible scenarios and it simply is not productive. Alignment will be impossible. It is based on a premise that is a paradox itself. Furthermore, even if it were possible, there will be a hostile AI built on purpose because humanity is foolish enough to do it. Think military applications. I've written in detail about this topic FYI - https://dakara.substack.com/p/ai-singularity-the-hu…

This is basically the plot to Terminator 2.

Re: Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut It All Down

#118

Post by anigbrowl »

lstamour wrote: post #97
NhanH wrote: post #68

I've known about Eliezer Yudkowsky's ideas for a long time, but here is something I've never seen: what actually he has produced, in term of scientific output? I've read plenty of his lesswrong's writing on the idea of rationalist, as well as plenty more on the AI alignment side (obviously including the famous basilisk). But can someone please point me to some results from the last 2 decades of his works? Either from…

I asked GPT v4 your question: > What has Eliezer Yudkowsky produced, in terms of scientific output? I've read plenty of his lesswrong's writing on the idea of rationalist, as well as plenty more on the AI alignment side (obviously including the famous basilisk). Can you point me to some results from the last 2 decades of his works? Either from him or his institute. That helps to calibrate what his expectation for the…

Please don't. Any of us who want to can question an LLM directly; auto-generated responses clutter things up the way copy and pasting a set of search engine results or a spreadsheet would.

Re: Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut It All Down

#119

Post by jacobedawson »

anongraddebt wrote: post #26
scarmig wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Self-aggrandizement isn't anything foreign to Eliezer, but he's genuinely terrified. Milking it for every drop doesn't really capture what he's doing.

Yeah, I wonder sometimes how many people gloss over what it would mean for an “ASI” to exist. We would - if successful - effectively be creating a supernatural being (at least, there wouldn’t be much of a distinction between it and one). Sure, there’s hype, and FUD, and fatalism, etc. But, if you believe the creation of such a thing is within your lifetime then it would be difficult to find many higher priority issue…

Agreed this is not discussed often - in a doom scenario, a quick death for everyone might be the best case

Re: Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut It All Down

#120

Post by crhulls »

antibasilisk wrote: post #63
Imnimo wrote: post #35

I feel like if I actually believed that the death of all biological life was imminent and that the only way to forestall it was to bomb data centers, I'd spend a lot more time planning how to bomb data centers and a lot less time curating Shoggoth memes on my web forum. On the other hand, if I were more concerned with self-aggrandizement, writing doomsaying thinkpieces for Time is exactly what I'd spend my time on.

>I feel like if I actually believed that the death of all biological life was imminent and that the only way to forestall it was to bomb data centers, I'd spend a lot more time planning how to bomb data centers and a lot less time curating Shoggoth memes on my web forum Alternatively, perhaps the author is proposing a less violent solution to avoid the inevitable escalation. Unlike cartoons, in real life people don't…

It doesn’t change your point all that much but the Unabomber gave literal warnings about his plans. That is how his manifesto was published, which was ironically about the risk of technological takeover.
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