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Pause Giant AI Experiments: An Open Letter

futureoflife.org

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Re: Pause Giant AI Experiments: An Open Letter

#681

Post by tracerbulletx »

richardw wrote: post #444
xianshou wrote: post #355

Two-party iterated prisoner's dilemma is hard enough. Sensible players will coordinate with something like tit-for-tat, but that only works when both parties start off on the right foot. Regardless of initial strategy, the chances of degenerating towards the mutual-defection Nash equilibrium increase with the number of parties. The only prior example of world coordination at this level would be nuclear disarmament ac…

And add in just one peer-level war where one side has their back against the wall. Then give it 100 years where anyone can create such a model on their phone. We’d need a constantly evolving inoculation function to compete. And it would probably lose because the other side has fewer restrictions. In my darker thoughts about this, this is why we see no aliens. To get this to work we need a far smarter entity with no p…

We all die, someday the species will too, I don't see it as any more dark than individual mortality or as dramatic as we always make it out to be.

Re: Pause Giant AI Experiments: An Open Letter

#683

Post by dogcomplex »

xianshou wrote: post #355

Two-party iterated prisoner's dilemma is hard enough. Sensible players will coordinate with something like tit-for-tat, but that only works when both parties start off on the right foot. Regardless of initial strategy, the chances of degenerating towards the mutual-defection Nash equilibrium increase with the number of parties. The only prior example of world coordination at this level would be nuclear disarmament ac…

It's worse than this. Llama models trained off of GPT 3.5/4 can run on a Raspberry Pi totally offline with similar levels of quality - taking all the best parts of the original model. Even if all major AI companies halted the upper tiers of model progress right now, you're still gonna need the entire public to stop assembling these together. It's quite possible just a whole bunch of these lesser models architected the right way could then still breach the quality of GPT5, and/or develop sentience patterns (which may very-well just be an emergent property of letting an intelligent snapshot model add to its memory over time and develop a personal narrative). AI Robot Swarm is already out of the box. Monolithic God AI might still be slowed.

Re: Pause Giant AI Experiments: An Open Letter

#684

Post by alfiedotwtf »

kiney wrote: post #674
alfiedotwtf wrote: post #651

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the first time I've actually seen game theory applied to an actual real life scenario rather than just a theoretical academic problem. What's the best resource to learn more game theory and to be able to applying it like you to a more general setting?

If you happen to understand german I can really recommend "ProfRieck" on youtube

I wish :)

Re: Pause Giant AI Experiments: An Open Letter

#686

Post by politician »

fintechie wrote: post #658
worldsayshi wrote: post #512

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In my darker thoughts about this, this is why we see no aliens. If AI would be a common great filter we'd expect at least one of them to expand outwards after being the filter?

Black holes == Super intelligence (aka The Transcension Hypothesis) https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S00945...

This seems like a strange idea given the supermassive black holes we’re finding in the early universe. That’s significant because early stars had low metallicity which means that metals were very rare, and were so until recently (gen 3 stars). If civilizations were turning themselves into black holes, they had to do so without much of what we consider technology. Certainly nothing like what goes into an EV, for instance.

Re: Pause Giant AI Experiments: An Open Letter

#687

Post by gcau »

This seems really dumb. We don't have AI, we have language models that can't add 2 and 2. Their biggest danger is saying something offensive. Let's have this discussion when we're somewhat close to developing an actual AI? We could be 100 years away for all we know.

Re: Pause Giant AI Experiments: An Open Letter

#689

Post by m3kw9 »

puma_ambit wrote: post #365

The virtue signal of all virtue signals. We do not live in a society where an article like this will have any impact. This is merely an attempt to buy time because they're behind and want to have a chance to catch up. Work will progress whether they like it or not. Finally someone other than Ol' Musky is in the news more than him. Don't get me wrong he's doing and leading great work, but for once in more recent times…

The signatories probably doesn’t know what they are really really signing, but it does place them in a very important discussion(they can be relevant) if this somehow goes down

Re: Pause Giant AI Experiments: An Open Letter

#690

Post by akira2501 »

gcau wrote: post #687

This seems really dumb. We don't have AI, we have language models that can't add 2 and 2. Their biggest danger is saying something offensive. Let's have this discussion when we're somewhat close to developing an actual AI? We could be 100 years away for all we know.

Setting a for profit companies technology as some imagined benchmark is what monopolists do. There is no concern for anything other than profit here.
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