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Pause Giant AI Experiments: An Open Letter

futureoflife.org

451–460 of 1001 posts

Re: Pause Giant AI Experiments: An Open Letter

#451
post #447

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The publicly released AIs are not the ones we need to worry about. Pushing research underground will worsen the situation

It’s wide AI use that will disrupt society. Underground AI will not be widely used. Let’s not imbue individual underground AI with magical abilities.

Yeah, part of the concern is job automation / mass-unemployment which is less likely if AI research is slowed down / driven underground.

We need to manage the transition of the labor force and ideally not have it happen overnight.

Re: Pause Giant AI Experiments: An Open Letter

#452
post #380

To those saying "this is impossible in our society", there is a long history of scientific fields mutually agreeing to pause certain work until safety and regulations could be put in place. The Asilomar Conference is an example. [1] The idea that "you can't put the genie back in the bottle" is very popular in tech culture, but many have suggested that simply extending elements of copyright or tort law to AI would be…

Not having lived through either moment in history, I have to remark that the current discourse about regulating AI feels like it rhymes more with the efforts to lock up encryption technology with government regulation in the 90s than with the research community's conference on recombinant DNA.

Re: Pause Giant AI Experiments: An Open Letter

#453

This would be totalitarian. This is arguing for a group of people to have the power to decide some field is "unsafe" as per some vague, unverifiable criteria, then set up a police structure to verify compliance, all outside the safeguards of democratic or judicial norms. Precautionary principle run amok.

The incumbents sense a shift in the power structure that they cant control

Re: Pause Giant AI Experiments: An Open Letter

#454
The problem with this is that at present, it is largely good people who are ahead in AI development and that gap might widen over time if China has difficulty acquiring large numbers of high end chips. China and Russia feel that they need to cheat in order to compete in many ways. China does invest a lot into AI and some good work does come from there, but any advantage they can gain that their opponent will not take is seen as a step closer to greater world influence.

If well meaning people pause, they cede some ground to those who are investing heavily in "western" failure and the pause could accelerate the exact thing it's trying to delay. On the flip side of that coin, if all advanced AI work is already infiltrated by foreign agents then it's also possible that pausing could slow down their greatest gains.

In either case, there may be an argument for holding back mainstreaming/productization for longer than is already normal or establishing an independent AI industry productization review organization that gets early access to any AI products which could qualify as concerning.

Unfortunately, governments heavily oriented towards censorship may be less afraid of spreading dangerous products out there while banning them domestically, because it might be seen as a method to legitimize authoritarian control by pointing to disasters in those other places.

Re: Pause Giant AI Experiments: An Open Letter

#455
post #454

The problem with this is that at present, it is largely good people who are ahead in AI development and that gap might widen over time if China has difficulty acquiring large numbers of high end chips. China and Russia feel that they need to cheat in order to compete in many ways. China does invest a lot into AI and some good work does come from there, but any advantage they can gain that their opponent will not take…

Ah the good people. Of course i trust those.

Re: Pause Giant AI Experiments: An Open Letter

#456
post #225

> Signatories: - Elon Musk, CEO of SpaceX, Tesla & Twitter [and ex-co-founder of OpenAI] - Emad Mostaque, CEO, Stability AI - Victoria Krakovna, DeepMind, Research Scientist, co-founder of Future of Life Institute Some people had made comparisons between the Crypto hype and the current AI wave. I think I have to hand it to the crypto people that they are at least internally consistent and honest with themselves: I th…

It was too exciting not to do it, so they did.

"The Great Filter is a marshmallow test."

Re: Pause Giant AI Experiments: An Open Letter

#457

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except the concern isn't genuine here. Some of the signatories have AI companies and interests. They want to slow the leaders down so that they can catch up. It's disingenuous.

Your idea is also voiced in Forbes magazine. https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattnovak/2023/03/29/the-real-r... Search "Graham's hierarchy of disagreement" which is popular on HN. Your current criticism is at the "ad hominem" level. It is entirely beside the point what Elon Musk's motivation is. The question is 1) if the risks referenced in the letter are real, which they certainly are. There has been informed thought o…

[deleted]

Re: Pause Giant AI Experiments: An Open Letter

#458
If US companies don’t advance this technology, companies in other countries will. Or possibly even state actors.

Eventually, somebody will automate most jobs. Society will need to adjust to this. Our high-minded ideals about preserving fulfilling work will evaporate as soon as China makes a major breakthrough.

I think AI technology will become the nuclear arms race of the 21st century. How it turns out could be fantastically bad. But I think it is inevitable.

Re: Pause Giant AI Experiments: An Open Letter

#459

"The Dark Forest" is a science fiction novel by Liu Cixin, which introduces a concept called "suspicion."(“猜疑链”) In this concept, the interaction between civilizations is viewed as an ongoing game of suspicion, where each civilization is worried that the other civilization may pose a threat to it. This kind of suspicion makes it difficult for civilizations to establish trust, thereby making the universe a dark forest…

Was this comment generated by a LLM?

The second paragraph definitely was (the first one probably too). 100% crystal clear, it's not even a question. Downvoted.

Re: Pause Giant AI Experiments: An Open Letter

#460
post #417

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Noticed Sam Altman was in the list yesterday too. Now removed. Has any of the high profile signatories confirmed publicly?

The Verge says it wasn't real Sam Altman. >[…] though new names should be treated with caution as there are reports of names being added to the list as a joke (e.g. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, an individual who is partly responsible for the current race dynamic in AI). https://www.theverge.com/2023/3/29/23661374/elon-musk-ai-res...

Or, impossible I know, there are more than one person with the name "Sam Altman". Would suck probably, no one believes you are you, because another startup/tech-famous person have the same name.
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