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Pause Giant AI Experiments: An Open Letter

futureoflife.org

391–400 of 1001 posts

Re: Pause Giant AI Experiments: An Open Letter

#391

For Sake of Argument lets say you pause US from doing anything on AI, how will you control China, Germany or other Countries.. This will only lead to US Lagging behind other countries.

International treaties are very common. In fact, international research agreements are often easier than treaties because scientists and researchers are more likely to work together as colleagues than nation states.

Re: Pause Giant AI Experiments: An Open Letter

#392

"The Dark Forest" is a science fiction novel by Liu Cixin, which introduces a concept called "suspicion."(“猜疑链”) In this concept, the interaction between civilizations is viewed as an ongoing game of suspicion, where each civilization is worried that the other civilization may pose a threat to it. This kind of suspicion makes it difficult for civilizations to establish trust, thereby making the universe a dark forest…

Nitpick: dark forest is one possible explanation for the Fermi paradox and not coined in the book(though the book presented neatly). You can read a great article about fermi paradox here if anyone wants to jump into what the dark forest theory is: https://waitbutwhy.com/2014/05/fermi-paradox.html

Re: Pause Giant AI Experiments: An Open Letter

#393
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The industrial revolution didn't make human lives miserable, it made it better. I think this is a point that is genuinely debatable. At least, it's pretty easy to argue both sides of that proposition.

And the comparison with the industrial revolution is a poor analogy because the industrial revolution never proposed as a goal to automate humanity in totality, merely to automate human drudgery . AI is an anti-industrial revolution, because it proposes to start with the most fulfilling aspects of human existence: writing, the arts, and to automate people engaged in those jobs, and to only later come to automate huma…

If angels came from the heavens and offered to take care of our needs, would you fight them?

I think it’s a coincidence that it’s threatening some kinds of artists first - I don’t see that distinction lasting long with the advent of plugins, and art has a fundamental, semi- necessary human quality that is not present in knowledge work.

Re: Pause Giant AI Experiments: An Open Letter

#394
post #358
post #349

Cat may be out of the bag. I was wondering today whether the race should be on to be creating an benevolent AI to defend humanity from the less benevolent ones.

If you don't know how to make one already you will be racing towards the precipice, not steering away from it.

Yeah. Pretty high stakes. If we assume that work is already underway to create unaligned AIs, what’s the alternative?

Re: Pause Giant AI Experiments: An Open Letter

#395

The virtue signal of all virtue signals. We do not live in a society where an article like this will have any impact. This is merely an attempt to buy time because they're behind and want to have a chance to catch up. Work will progress whether they like it or not. Finally someone other than Ol' Musky is in the news more than him. Don't get me wrong he's doing and leading great work, but for once in more recent times…

>This is merely an attempt to buy time because they're behind and want to have a chance to catch up.

Doesn’t Elon Musk continue to hold stake at OpenAI?

Re: Pause Giant AI Experiments: An Open Letter

#397
post #41

GPT-4 might be close to the best we'll get on the general LLM model front for a while since they trained on a huge chunk of web text. Next real advances will probably be in tuning them for specific applications in medicine, law, accounting, marketing, coding and etc. As someone running a one man company I can't wait for the cost of accounting, legal and copywriting to approach 0. Cost of shipping products will also g…

> Cost of shipping products will also go down 10-20x.

How can a large language model achieve that?

Re: Pause Giant AI Experiments: An Open Letter

#398
post #372

>AI research and development should be refocused on making today's powerful, state-of-the-art systems more accurate, safe, interpretable, transparent, robust, aligned, trustworthy, and loyal. LMAO. “AI should have… waves at a laundry list of nice sounding adjectives that mean different things to every single signatory in order to accomplish… Humanity [can enjoy] a flourishing future with AI. This will take… six month…

All the nicknames for people on HN has this place feeling like Reddit lately. What happened to mature conversations on interesting topics?

I’m not really sure what there is to gain from making sure not to poke fun at a guy that spends all day posting wojack memes and rambling about the “woke mind virus”, but ok, here’s some “mature conversation”.

Upon perusal of the gentleman's penned expressions, it is my solemn conviction that his faculties of intellect and comprehension are, regrettably, of the most inferior order. It is with utmost eloquence that I convey the supremacy of my discernment whilst maintaining a dignified and majestic reserve.

Re: Pause Giant AI Experiments: An Open Letter

#399
post #69

I understand that some people find this a hopeless gesture. But I think anybody who thinks "losing jobs" or "China" is a bad outcome from AI is hopelessly lost. The upside of AI if done right - nobody ever having to work again The downside of AI if done wrong - end of humanity It doesn't take a rocket scientist to determine we've made AIs go from thinking like an ant to thinking like a 6-year-old in a few years. Anyb…

> Anybody who believes we won't make AI 2, 3, 27 times smarter than any human who ever lived is kidding themselves.

Perhaps I'm kidding myself, but could you explain how you know this?

Re: Pause Giant AI Experiments: An Open Letter

#400

For Sake of Argument lets say you pause US from doing anything on AI, how will you control China, Germany or other Countries.. This will only lead to US Lagging behind other countries.

Forget countries? How will you stop me? I have models on my local computer. I can and will use them. They will get better. You don't put tech genie's back in their bottles, that's not how it works.

It wouldn’t be hard to stop. Chip fabrication is a concentrated industry with a high barrier to entry (indeed there are only a few companies in the world producing high performance silicon using technology made by probably even fewer companies). Restrict AI chip making and the materials needed, and you’ll restrict AI. I can see global treaties between large nations effectively controlling production in the same way that we have nuclear treaties that prevent proliferation or enrichment.
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