Earlier quoted context omitted.
Is it? There are many mentions of confetti cannons on the web, along with explanations of how they work (saying something like confetti shoots out of the cannon). Chat-GPT just picked a random thing (confetti) and completed the pattern "X out of Y" with the thing confetti comes out of. It's easy. The cereal is out of the box. The helium is out of the balloon. The snow is out of the globe. And it's exactly the one thi…
Like you, I thought these pieces of software and data were little more than statistics-based text generators. But it turns out that this is a Category Mistake. There was an argument made by Raphaël Millière in a recent Mindscape Podcast [1] with Sean Carroll that finally landed for me. He used the example that human beings are driven to eat and reproduce, so by that argument all humans are just eating and reproducing…
Human beings evolved to eat and reproduce and yet here we are, building computers and inventing complex mathematical models of language and debating whether they're intelligent.
We're so far from the environment we evolved to solve that we've clearly demonstrated the ability to adapt.
ChatGPT doing well at a language task isn't demonstrating that same ability to adapt because that's the task it was designed and trained to do. ChatGPT doing something completely different would be the impressive example.
In short: I don't categorically reject the possibility that LLMs might become capable of more than being "statistics-based text generators", I simply require evidence.