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Pause Giant AI Experiments: An Open Letter

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Re: Pause Giant AI Experiments: An Open Letter

#131

Post by pdonis »

gordian-mind wrote: post #110
thomasahle wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Because of productivity gains humans will work very little, and yet live comfortably. Wouldn't this imply humans should already be working very little compared to pre industrial revolution? Instead it seems we work more [1]. And with less fulfilling work. I agree however that we have may have more stuff (or wealth). So going by this projection, in the future we'll have even more stuff, and work even more in even le…

Well, pre-industrial societies usually enjoyed a very efficient type of political system. Maybe replacing our current one with some form of AI with let us enjoy these blessed times again.

> pre-industrial societies usually enjoyed a very efficient type of political system.

Really? What system is that?

Re: Pause Giant AI Experiments: An Open Letter

#132

Post by sp527 »

pdonis wrote: post #125
sp527 wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Almost everyone here will be fine in a world in which only certain non-renewable scarce resources have any value, combined with impending massive currency deflation. Even a rank and file tier 2/3 engineer will manage to live a princely life in that new reality assuming (s)he saved up enough. Hardly anyone in the tech community is capable of truly empathizing with the vast majority of people, who are born with none of…

> a world in which only certain non-renewable scarce resources have any value If you think this is the world "AI" is leading us toward, I think you need to think again. There are a huge range of skills that only humans can provide, and that will continue to be true. GPT-3 can't fix your plumbing or your HVAC when it breaks. It can't fix your car. It can't build houses. It can't build roads. It can't build computers.…

What do you think happens when AI compresses the economy and leaves us almost exclusively with manual labor jobs, most of which are already low-paying? And you may not be aware of this having never done such a job, but physical labor is often brutally taxing on the body, putting people at risk of a wide array of potential health complications.

I've seen this abjectly atrocious argument about manual labor made by a number of people on HN and it's astounding how poorly thought through it is.

Re: Pause Giant AI Experiments: An Open Letter

#133

Post by pdonis »

thomasahle wrote: post #86
petilon wrote: post #68

> Should we automate away all the jobs, including the fulfilling ones? You don't necessarily need jobs because you don't need money. What you need is wealth. I am going to leave it to PG to explain the difference [1]: Wealth is not money. Wealth is stuff we want: food, clothes, houses, cars, gadgets, travel to interesting places, and so on. You can have wealth without having money. If you had a magic machine that cou…

> Because of productivity gains humans will work very little, and yet live comfortably. Wouldn't this imply humans should already be working very little compared to pre industrial revolution? Instead it seems we work more [1]. And with less fulfilling work. I agree however that we have may have more stuff (or wealth). So going by this projection, in the future we'll have even more stuff, and work even more in even le…

> Wouldn't this imply humans should already be working very little compared to pre industrial revolution?

No, because human wants aren't fixed. When you give a human everything they want now, tomorrow they come back with a whole new set of wants. And so on ad infinitum...

Of course, as an individual it's your choice whether, and for how long, you stay on this merry-go-round. But there will always be a significant number of humans who will.

Re: Pause Giant AI Experiments: An Open Letter

#134

Post by dougmwne »

JohnFen wrote: post #31
dougmwne wrote: post #3

[flagged]

I don't think laughing at people for their concerns is helpful. Especially when you don't seem to be bothered by the possibility that this is a civilization-ending development. For the record, I don't think it is, personally. But people are terrified, and not taking their fear seriously and dealing with it compassionately is a recipe for serious, and unnecessary disaster.

Laughing at Elon is always helpful to me personally.

The civilization ending development is going to happen or not happen. It’s hubris to think any one person or one country has a say at this point.

Re: Pause Giant AI Experiments: An Open Letter

#135

Post by versteegen »

kelseyfrog wrote: post #85
6gvONxR4sf7o wrote: post #67

I'm really disappointed to see the HN reaction of straight up scoffing at this like it's irreversible and so let's just step on the gas. It's some weird combination of techno-utopianism and nihilism and good old elitism.

AGI is a break-capitalism lottery ticket I'm willing to entertain. If the marginal cost of labor collapses to zero then either we'll get robot police or finally be free to pursue lives of leisure.

That is the best possible outcome, but I worry that we have a single shot at it. If the massive wealth generated isn't distributed evenly, what will ever level it out other than the things that have in the past: war, disaster, revolution and state collapse (see The Great Leveler).

Re: Pause Giant AI Experiments: An Open Letter

#136

Post by dougmwne »

omnicognate wrote: post #52
dougmwne wrote: post #3

[flagged]

> Please stop outcompeting us. Sincerely, The Losers I disagree with the letter and I think these fears are overblown, but the attitude on display here is pretty unpleasant.

I suspect it’s about to get a whole lot more unpleasant.

Re: Pause Giant AI Experiments: An Open Letter

#137

Post by amluto »

petilon wrote: post #81
musicale wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> AI & robots will generate wealth at unprecedented scale, and humans will reap the benefits, the same way Alaskans reap the benefits of their natural resources. Vast wealth will certainly be delivered to owners of the robots and AI systems. What reason is there to believe that they would share the wealth with ordinary citizens? A typical alternative to the Alaska model is one where oil companies extract all of the w…

A lot of people are already benefiting from ChatGPT. I know I am, and I am only paying $20 a month for a digital assistant that is expert in everything.

You may be getting ahead of yourself. You can spend $20 and ask ChatGPT to make plentiful food and energy, but it won’t actually do so.

Re: Pause Giant AI Experiments: An Open Letter

#138

Post by dougmwne »

larve wrote: post #98
dougmwne wrote: post #3

[flagged]

This is a pretty disappointing opinion to share. Clearly something huge is happening already that we don't need yet another model to throw everything into disarray once more. I still work with GPT3, and think we haven't even begun to understand how to use even that. GPT3 is enough to disrupt entire industries, amongst which programming and tech will be IMO the most "vulnerable." At least you are putting your disillus…

I’m not sure if it’s ultimately good or bad, but I do know that if only one company or country controls it then it will be bad. Either way, I think it’s an unstoppable force and preposterous that we puny humans could stop it when we can’t seem to build rail between LA and SF.

Re: Pause Giant AI Experiments: An Open Letter

#140

Post by versteegen »

twblalock wrote: post #108
6gvONxR4sf7o wrote: post #67

I'm really disappointed to see the HN reaction of straight up scoffing at this like it's irreversible and so let's just step on the gas. It's some weird combination of techno-utopianism and nihilism and good old elitism.

It really is irreversible. The methods and compute needed to build a GPT-type AI are widely available.

Yes, but superintelligence hasn't been created yet. That's what the petition is ultimately about, not chat assistants. Transformers unmodified aren't going to scale up to that, they're already nearly scaled maximally.
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