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Next version will be 40% garbage. Then 30%, then 20%... And we got to the point where it has as much garbage as human code.
That's what you might expect, but it requires another breakthrough IMO. From what I understand of LLMs, they can't be incrementally improved to add logical reasoning since they're just guessing the next word. It's impressive and fine in many cases, but there are many where it's not enough.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's what you might expect, but it requires another breakthrough IMO. From what I understand of LLMs, they can't be incrementally improved to add logical reasoning since they're just guessing the next word. It's impressive and fine in many cases, but there are many where it's not enough.
They do logically reason, that's the whole point.
In light of the quote, "Civilization advances by extending the number of important operations which we can perform without thinking about them," I agree that LLMs will undoubtedly transform the landscape of work. By automating tedious tasks, they'll enable engineers to become vastly more productive (10-100x), allowing them to focus on strategic and creative aspects of their projects while developing larger, more comp…
> they'll enable engineers to become vastly more productive (10-100x) Will that come along with a 10-100x pay increase? Why should I care about being so much more productive, when it won't come with any pay increase (and will likely come with a pay decrease)?
When our tools get so good that our employers don't need us, we won't need them. In a market where the engineers are competing with the manager class whose core skill is politics and bullshit, who would you bet on long term?
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> The junior devs whose whole job it is to translate architectural and design specifications into excessively verbose boilerplate code will struggle to survive, but the software architects above them will find a new means through which to express the analytical thinking, process planning and understanding of complex dependencies that they're paid for. Which will, in turn, further drive shortages of good developer tal…
The entrenched elite will have finally come for software engineering, you’ll only get to do that cool high level work if you go to the right school, with the right degree, with the right certification. And before anybody says “it’s already like that”, it’s really not.
The number of non-STEM folks who make it into high-level tech, though certainly greater than zero, is still trivial in comparison to those who go that way early.
Check back in few months when subtle bugs introduced by AI will start to surface. There'll be plenty of work and money for you then.
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That could well be. But also check back in a few years when the AI is chasing down subtle bugs introduced by humans.
For now AI has nearly zero debugging skills. Which I'm not surprised by because debugging requires reasoning, often over large parts of the system.
I spent 2 hours trying to fix an SSL issue on my webserver, neither stack overflow or my devops friends could figure it out.
GPT4 gave me the answer in 3 minutes. and without all the ego and gatekeeping.
It looks like the most interesting part of programming (for me) has been automated, while the parts I hate remain (at least for now?): gathering requirements, talking to people, understanding business, etc.
I hoped to earn enough money through commercial programming to live off it, and switch to programming languages/compilers and work in that area for small money but big fun.
It seems neither of these things are going to happen, and for technology/logic aligned people that are mediocre in their performance, and don't like working with people, the only place to go is trades. Maybe I'll still have a "programming" job, as an intermediary between AI and product people, but I feel the competition is not gonna be in my favor.
If AI truly replaces all creative work, maybe a good way to go would be acknowledging your inferiority towards a superior species, buy some land in the country and try living a quiet life off the farming?
Interesting how this story got immediately pushed away from the first 200 items on the front page (where we have items 2 days old with 50 poins and 50 comments).