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Apple’s Best Hope for New Headset: a Smartwatch-Like Trajectory

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Re: Apple’s Best Hope for New Headset: a Smartwatch-Like Trajectory

#61

Post by Duralias »

paxys wrote: post #24
root_axis wrote: post #20

My prediction: it will suck. Why? All AR devices suck, the tech just isn't there.

More than that, I think the underlying problem is that people simply don't want VR/AR. Decades of science fiction writing has convinced us that it is the future, but like..why?

As someone enthusiastic about it, VR is unlikely to go fully mainstream, however it will definitely still exist, but AR is a completely different beast.

AR glasses could replace your phone, TV and computer monitors. Of course we are a bit away from that future but just replacing screens alone has the capability to shake up the world.

Re: Apple’s Best Hope for New Headset: a Smartwatch-Like Trajectory

#62

Post by cjdoc29 »

anonymouse008 wrote: post #40
cjdoc29 wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am doubtful their VR product will be great if released within this or next year. > Apple Watch got so extremely lucky But given that others have tried and arguably failed to have the same impact, this is not sizably attributed to luck at all.

The digital watch market is like the meme where we see a guy spraying champagne all over himself, kissing his girlfriend, but when we zoom out it's at the bottom tier of tech experience. Apple won it not because their watch is 'great' - but because they have such brand cache that they could sell 100m of anything once the market learns about them. Airport could absolutely come back and sell that amount, taken into con…

> but because they have such brand cache that they could sell 100m of anything once the market learns about them

I partially disagree with this argument. They sold some 10 million units in 2016 - it might be that because of the success and ubiquity of iPods and iPhones in the decade leading up to this, that people thought that the first Apple Watch was a great product (it wasn't, really IMO). Brand cache, or whatever, sure.

But you don't sell nearly 60 million units in 2021 off luck.

Re: Apple’s Best Hope for New Headset: a Smartwatch-Like Trajectory

#63

Post by j2bax »

etempleton wrote: post #41

If it is as described I think it is insane for Apple to launch this product. Comparing it to the state of the Apple Watch is pretty strange because if nothing else the Apple Watch was functional, self contained, worked, and was under $1,000. Even if it didn’t work you could put it on and ignore it. A VR/AR headset is nothing like that and at $3,000 is a significant investment for most everyone. But who knows. I haven…

I could see major potential in the fitness space, paired with Apple Watch + Fitness+... I could see potential use cases in education (think surgery simulator etc...). I could see some developers using it as an alternative to their monitors. I think there are plenty of places outside of gaming where a device like this, done right (comfortable) could carve out a segment. Plenty of people pay thousands of dollars for an exercise bike with a screen attached to it.

Re: Apple’s Best Hope for New Headset: a Smartwatch-Like Trajectory

#64

Post by randomifcpfan »

JKCalhoun wrote: post #45
paxys wrote: post #27

Apple has come a long way from the time when not even the engineering team working on a product would know what it really was until Steve Jobs unveiled it on stage. Now everything gets leaked like at every other company. Did Apple even have a hundred executives in 2008?

The "Top 100" thing has been going on for some time. The first I heard about it was certainly when Steve Jobs returned. In fact I remember it struck me how "Jobsian" it was: to create in-the-circle and out-of-the-circle groups. Unsurprisingly this is when you started seeing political jockeying, coattail riding and all the other rather gross human behaviors I had not experienced at Apple up until then.

Heh, you may have been lucky. I worked at Apple during the middle part of the no-Jobs era, and I remember there was plenty of political intrigue between teams. Mac vs Apple vs Newton vs Draco, Blue vs Pink vs AUX vs Red. Many different hardware projects. Engineering vs HIG vs Research. The engineering culture was good about coming together to ship the next big thing, but in between big things there was tons of infighting.

Re: Apple’s Best Hope for New Headset: a Smartwatch-Like Trajectory

#65

Post by Dr_Birdbrain »

smoldesu wrote: post #37
lockhouse wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.counterpointresearch.com/global-smartwatch-shipm... If it follows the Apple Watch, then it will be the undisputed market leader in the product segment, which honestly I think it will. The competition is very weak. Meta's efforts have largely failed with the MetaVerse and their whole ecosystem seams very stagnant. Valve and HTC aren't doing much in this space. Sony's PSVR is promising, but it is completely…

I'm not sure if I agree. What is there to disrupt? Really think about that statement for a minute. Maybe telepresence if you market it right, but the money is all in gaming and social use. And if you're gonna buy a headset, would you rather get the $300 one with Beat Saber and VR Chat, or cough up $3,000 for FaceTime in VR? I think Meta has done all they can here. It's frankly a shock they managed to sell over 10 mil…

That’s funny, because I wouldn’t buy a Quest, but I was just thinking I would LOVE FaceTime in AR, so I could take calls and meetings while walking in the park. I already do that but I have to use a hand to hold my phone.

Re: Apple’s Best Hope for New Headset: a Smartwatch-Like Trajectory

#67

Post by smoldesu »

dev_tty01 wrote: post #46
paxys wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where was this persistent iteration and overnight success with Homepod, Airpower, butterfly keyboards, touchbar, force touch, MobileMe, Ping? Apple has had its share of failures like any other company, and kills products like any other company. There is plenty of precedence for their AR headset to just fizzle out.

I don't disagree with your examples. Yep, they've made plenty of mistakes. A key difference here is that Apple has been spent many years developing and promoting substantial AR frameworks. It has been a huge investment. It at least appears that this huge investment has all been leading up to some sort of vision based wearable. If it does turn out to be a failure, the magnitude of the failure will be much larger than…

> Apple has been spent many years developing and promoting substantial AR frameworks

...dovetailed with their cut support for SteamVR and the OpenXR standard. In-house APIs are a nice investment, but arguably pointless when everyone's content is built on pre-existing and open frameworks. This whole project feels like a side-pot to me, and Apple themselves are clearly afraid to commit.

Re: Apple’s Best Hope for New Headset: a Smartwatch-Like Trajectory

#69

Post by smoldesu »

dev_tty01 wrote: post #60
smoldesu wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure if I agree. What is there to disrupt? Really think about that statement for a minute. Maybe telepresence if you market it right, but the money is all in gaming and social use. And if you're gonna buy a headset, would you rather get the $300 one with Beat Saber and VR Chat, or cough up $3,000 for FaceTime in VR? I think Meta has done all they can here. It's frankly a shock they managed to sell over 10 mil…

Well said. There is no Apple-scale market to disrupt. If the largest market for the wearable remains as gaming, Apple is in a very poor position since they have always only begrudgingly embraced gaming. This isn't about disruption, this is about creating a new market. If I think of myself as an example, I don't have interest in the gaming angle. If it is comfortable enough and the experience is great, I might buy it…

We'll have to see. Personally, I'm hoping Apple uses it as an excuse to patch up industry relations. If Apple/Safari embraced OpenXR, we could see that 'next frontier' of web content that everyone has been preaching since 2007.

Working with the industry seems like it could stand to make a lot more money for Apple. As a Quest competitor it's a hard pill to swallow, but as a high-quality dev kit for cross-platform VR/AR experiences, it could carve a lucrative new segment for itself.

Re: Apple’s Best Hope for New Headset: a Smartwatch-Like Trajectory

#70

Post by adfm »

bastawhiz wrote: post #52
adfm wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What if LLMs are the killer app? https://lukashoel.github.io/text-to-room/

I'm unconvinced that actually making the content is the problem. We had SketchUp fifteen years ago and that made it stupid easy to make some really killer 3d content. I don't think being able to use natural language removes the barriers to it taking off. The real problem isn't the shapes (there's plenty of free meshes out there), it's making them interactive, which is a complicated problem that extends well beyond th…

Oh, you want interactively?

https://instruct-nerf2nerf.github.io/

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