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U.S. home prices are the most unaffordable they've been in nearly 100 years

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Re: U.S. home prices are the most unaffordable they've been in nearly 100 years

#111

Post by gigatexal »

superkuh wrote: post #10

From 1950 to 2008 the USA built ~25 million homes per (edit, not year) decade. From 2008 to 2018 it was about 7 million. In recent years building rates have mostly recovered but there's still that gap in production combined with everything else the last handful of years. This isn't to discount the shift of ownership from human persons to corporate persons, that's a factor too. But just numbers of available houses ver…

I don’t think the solution should be homes aka a scale out solution. It should be to go vertical for higher density. Apartments serve the most people and the barriers to entry are much lower than a mortgage.

Re: U.S. home prices are the most unaffordable they've been in nearly 100 years

#112

Post by yawnr »

xupybd wrote: post #14
zxexz wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You sound very confident. Not that I disagree, necessarily, but do you care to elaborate?

The forces that drove prices are over. Low interest rates, and low productivity due to COVID-19. As interest rates rise people will no be able to afford their mortgages. Prices will fall in response.

Not meaningfully. Prices are up 60% in 2 years. No chance there is that level of correction when 99% of mortgages have rates cheaper than the current market rate.

Re: U.S. home prices are the most unaffordable they've been in nearly 100 years

#113

Post by switch007 »

Interest rates jumping from 1.2% to 4.5% had zero cooling effect on house prices in my area. Probably quite a few people are still on existing fixed mortgages.

Prices have jumped, as a double whammy.

It’s all about supply: there is very very little and it’s a desirable area.

Even if rates stay at around 4-5% in a few years when all of the low-rate fixed mortgages have ended, prices will have risen, and I would guess all that would happen is a slight abatement of rises, not a reduction.

Re: U.S. home prices are the most unaffordable they've been in nearly 100 years

#114

Post by poulsbohemian »

pzo wrote: post #43
superkuh wrote: post #10

From 1950 to 2008 the USA built ~25 million homes per (edit, not year) decade. From 2008 to 2018 it was about 7 million. In recent years building rates have mostly recovered but there's still that gap in production combined with everything else the last handful of years. This isn't to discount the shift of ownership from human persons to corporate persons, that's a factor too. But just numbers of available houses ver…

So in those 7 decades there has been build 175 million houses. Population of usa is around 350 million. Most people probsbly also not living alone and some houses that were build before 1950 probsbly still are in use just maybe modernized. Not familiar with USA market but wondering: Are current houses just more fragile and fell apart within 50 years?

>Are current houses just more fragile and fell apart within 50 years?

Obsolescence gets overlooked but it is important. Not only are houses often poorly constructed, but many are simply no longer desirable. For example in my area, anything pre-1960 is likely very small, possibly without a garage, and may only have one bathroom. The modern homeowner wants something better. Houses in the 1970s were frankly, weird. They don't fit modern tastes at all. Many houses built in the 1990s are falling down already because they were so poorly built. So my point is, you have to take into account not only the top end inventory number, but also that lack of desirability is a real thing that drags down actual available inventory.

Re: U.S. home prices are the most unaffordable they've been in nearly 100 years

#115

Post by Pokepokalypse »

Rury wrote: post #83
pzo wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So in those 7 decades there has been build 175 million houses. Population of usa is around 350 million. Most people probsbly also not living alone and some houses that were build before 1950 probsbly still are in use just maybe modernized. Not familiar with USA market but wondering: Are current houses just more fragile and fell apart within 50 years?

Don't forget that houses get torn down and rebuilt. It doesn't happen often but it happens. In the US, modern houses tend to be larger, have better insulation (from what I've experienced), but can be cheap in some aspects (e.g. interior doors tend to be hollow, whereas older houses typically had solid doors). Overall though, I'm not sure if new or older homes were better built. I know some really well built old homes…

Modern homes have much better insulation and energy efficiency (like LED bulbs), etc. But I think it's also true that a lot of builders can get away with cutting corners, and the materials that go into homebuilding are also often of lesser quality (like wallboard from China that outgasses toxic sulfur fumes). Modern plumbing is mostly snap-fit plastic tubing rather than copper pipes. It's a LOT cheaper to install. Supposedly lasts as long or longer, but it's still shitty plastic.

Shitty wildcat builders throwing down entire subdivisions of deeply defective homes is a serious problem in the Phoenix area, I know that for a fact.

Re: U.S. home prices are the most unaffordable they've been in nearly 100 years

#116

Post by johnnylambada »

notch898a wrote: post #95
godzillabrennus wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also areas like East Cleveland that have a notorious reputation. Even if in that particular case the city was built by John D. Rockefeller, he is even buried there.

Ah yes, East Cleveland. One night I was biking home, one of the locals took note of my weakened position with a flat tire and that my skin color denoted I was not from the neighborhood, and they put a gun to my head. If you buy there, I recommend availing yourself of Ohio's constitutional carry provisions.

I’m so sorry to hear that happened to you, that must have been awful.

Re: U.S. home prices are the most unaffordable they've been in nearly 100 years

#117

Post by ChancyChance »

medion wrote: post #103
superkuh wrote: post #10

From 1950 to 2008 the USA built ~25 million homes per (edit, not year) decade. From 2008 to 2018 it was about 7 million. In recent years building rates have mostly recovered but there's still that gap in production combined with everything else the last handful of years. This isn't to discount the shift of ownership from human persons to corporate persons, that's a factor too. But just numbers of available houses ver…

Would be interesting to see how different the costs and difficulties compare to the prior building boom. The red tape involved in building today is off the charts - prior generations had a much easier time building houses.

And old homes are shit. Terrible plumbing. Terrible electrical. Terrible water. Terrible energy efficiency. Terrible seismic structural reinforcement.

Regulations exist to mitigate tragedies.

Re: U.S. home prices are the most unaffordable they've been in nearly 100 years

#118

Post by vkou »

Beaver117 wrote: post #32

It's all just a game looking at the charts until the real estate "investment" companies are invaded by thousands of homeless people and the CEOs executed. Are people just supposed to not live anywhere? How long will this last? Just learn from history.

> Just learn from history.

We have learned from histories, and we know exactly how to prevent populist land reform. It simply requires convincing half the lower class to fight the other half.

Re: U.S. home prices are the most unaffordable they've been in nearly 100 years

#119

Post by yawnr »

Overtonwindow wrote: post #42

We are so fortunate to have bought our home in 2019 before the pandemic. We locked in 2.85% on a 30 year fixed and never look back.

Congrats, genuinely. In my mid 30s with what I thought was a lot of money saved and can’t afford a 2 bedroom apartment. Feels hopeless.

Re: U.S. home prices are the most unaffordable they've been in nearly 100 years

#120

Post by vkou »

notch898a wrote: post #77
usaar333 wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Regulation blocking mortgage porting is unfortunate.

Personally I don't give a shit if people can sit on their house forever at -5% real interest rates or whatever. Just let me build a shack out of chicken wire, 2x4s, and tin roof. If you get to rig the game to get a house the least you can do is let me build something with whatever scraps are left in the financial system.

Letting you do that will bring down the price of houses.
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