Earlier quoted context omitted.
In the same way that you should take a software engineer's take on why a a SQL query is slow. They're probably the most knowledgeable person in the room but that doesn't always mean that they're right.
A software engineer usually doesn't have a financial incentive to lie to you.
Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008
231–240 of 441 posts
Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008
#232Earlier quoted context omitted.
Hey, some of us are passionate about paying rent and bills
Generally I think you'll find it easier to pay rent if you provide accurate reasons for slow sql queries.
Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008
#233Earlier quoted context omitted.
I’m so tired of the fake make pay role canard. All depositors had $250k guaranteed at the bat. But sure maybe that’s short for 2 weeks of payroll for many companies. Well FDIC was already cash payout warrants against the size of of their deposit assets (something like 50% would be available). If you need more than 50% of available cash to make payroll, you were already a dead firm walking. With liquid assets like lon…
I'm not sure how you reconcile acknowledging the reality of companies not being able to make payroll for two weeks and also calling it a "canard" in back to back sentences. A "fake canard" would be a double negative by the way ;) If you reread the thread and the context of what I was responding to it was the OP stating "It's not clear anyone would have lost anything at all ..." Perhaps you are well-off but losing a p…
They're arguing that companies could already make payroll just fine with access to half their balance. A 100% guarantee was not necessary.
Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008
#234Earlier quoted context omitted.
Over the years as my perspective has become more global I've come to realize what a privileged position the US is in, economically: * Ports on both the Atlantic and Pacific * A very effective transportation system in between * In the big growth sector where points 1 and 2 don't matter, tech, it's still #1 in the world anyway * A market of 350 million high income people (by global standards) under one regulatory frame…
You missed one massive advantage: the US has a good and reliable legal system. It can not be overstated how good this is for an economy, and it's something emerging markets struggle with, and even some of the advanced economics. It'll always be easier to start and run a business where you can rely on tribunals to solve problems quickly and somewhat fairly.
Contenders, in my mind:
- China, second largest economy, but generally still considered developing, so I don't think it counts as "advanced"
- Russia? They've been a big player in the world economy long enough it is hard to call it a developing country.
Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008
#235Earlier quoted context omitted.
Over the years as my perspective has become more global I've come to realize what a privileged position the US is in, economically: * Ports on both the Atlantic and Pacific * A very effective transportation system in between * In the big growth sector where points 1 and 2 don't matter, tech, it's still #1 in the world anyway * A market of 350 million high income people (by global standards) under one regulatory frame…
The other advantage is the total net worth as opposed to GDP. You hear a lot about GDP and the US has the biggest economy by far. But the total net worth per person in the States is even further ahead of the rest of the world. Only Switzerland is ahead of the US in per-capita net worth (only by a hair though) and one suspects that’s partly due to so many Americans parking their money there. Having had the biggest GDP…
Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008
#236Earlier quoted context omitted.
Actually the U.S. in 3rd place behind Switzerland and Luxembourg in terms of mean wealth per adult and Hong Kong is not far behind. But you are right that the other countries on the upper ranks are mostly smaller nations with large banking sectors: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_wealth_pe... While I agree that the U.S. has an enormous built-in advantage over other countries, I would really highlig…
While it is true that the US mean is much higher than the median, the median person still benefits greatly from that wealth. The rich invest their wealth in business, real estate for rent, and real estate for themselves, making all these things better. I'm currently in the EU, in a country that outperforms the US in median wealth by about 20%. While it's clear that life here is good, I'm also struck by how much worse…
Where America is great, it is great. But for the rest of it, it can be a very differently life for most of the inhabitants.
Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008
#237Earlier quoted context omitted.
> A market of 350 million high income people (by global standards) under one regulatory framework China almost has the same number of millionaires. Per capita it’s not as good, but in terms of volume. And I’d say they’re closer to a single regulatory framework than the US which has all sorts of conflicting state laws which get in the way of interstate commerce (despite the commerce clause). Sure there are a lot of ad…
That isn’t true - the US has 39% of all millionaires, and China has 10%. [0] Clearly a lead that can be overcome, but now with China’s turn back to proper communism, they will probably never get there. [0] Page 27: https://www.credit-suisse.com/media/assets/corporate/docs/ab...
Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008
#238Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008
#239Earlier quoted context omitted.
I hate all these conspiracy theories. And you know why? It's because they imply hubris, arrogance, control. Let's just realize that we all have a lot less control over our environment than we think we do, and some things are just forces beyond anyone's control.
I hate the implication of coordination. I think it's more likely that every person at every link in the chain is following some incentive: financial experts within banks are saying whatever they think will get governments to stop putting up interest rates (we're in a banking crisis), journalists are repeating interesting and dramatic news from their sources (that we're in a banking crisis), their editors are careful…
Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008
#240Earlier quoted context omitted.
You left out: * Issues the global reserve currency * Maintains the largest military * Has the widest media reach * Has significant natural resources There are problems too, but the unfair advantages are quite strong, and self-perpetuating. Which is fortunate for Americans, because very few countries could be so haphazardly managed, without failing.
Whenever the "what actually backs the US dollar" discussion comes up I remind them: 11 aircraft carriers.
That only works when the US has to fight military super-powers that rely on sea-transport in order to feed their people and their military, like Japan had to do in WW2.
The moment another super-power stops depending on sea routes in order to provide basic needs for its people and its military then things start getting more complicated. Case in point, the current Russia + China alliance. They could basically sustain a conventional war against the West while avoiding sea routes basically forever, thanks to Russia's fertile lands and minerals and with the help of China's human capital. There's no US aircraft carrier that would be able to stop the logistic links going through Central Asia.