I think it has nothing to do with the decline (which is mostly a result of an all-time insane bubble in P/E ratios and VC investment with lowest interest rates ever) but it will have everything to do with the lack of rebound from this decline.
Ask HN: Do the IT layoff and the AI rise correlate?
11–20 of 20 posts
Re: Ask HN: Do the IT layoff and the AI rise correlate?
#12I’ll keep repeating this: if you don’t have a career future you who are smart, engaged, knowledgeable and passionate, then no one does in any field. Personally, I believe this tech will change work, make it faster, let us get more done and remove our blockers faster. Like the introduction of the computer to the office, we will have to adapt and re-learn, but will also be more productive. You sound like a person to lo…
> if it becomes a human-level AGI copilot that lets a CEO run a Fortune 500 with just a few dozen prompt engineers if thats the case everyone in the world will want a piece of this easy pie, this results in competition, that results in needing more talent to compete. and when (or better yet if) we ever get to AGI, then it will be the end of humanity anyway. we will have far more pressing problems than looking for a j…
u forget that there are torches and angry mobs of people, right?
at some point a forceful redistribution of wealth will happen naturally, like it did in history many times before.
Re: Ask HN: Do the IT layoff and the AI rise correlate?
#13No. IT layoffs are because companies realized they could do layoffs.
Re: Ask HN: Do the IT layoff and the AI rise correlate?
#14There hasn't been enough time for it to be integrated into most workflows yet enough to make much of a dent in employment, especially at larger companies.
At this point it's just another tool for people to learn and wrap their head around and figure out how to capitalize on, and if you've ever supported a product before, you'd know it can take a while for people to get the hang of those things.
I use it a bit on my own but I don't use it at all for work, and I don't even know if I could, since the company may be hesitant to use A.I. generated code in case part of it may be taken from something with restricted licensing, but I haven't seen any guidance yet on it, so I don't bother.
And GPT may be a very eager junior programmer, but it still can't see the forest for the trees yet. It can't hold the entire program in its head, or know what to prioritize, or figure out fuzzy requirements, or how to integrate that little task into the larger project, and know when it needs to ask clarifying questions, etc. It might get there eventually, but it's not there yet. Right now it's not much better than getting lucky and landing on just the right answer in Stack Overflow.
I'd take the junior programmers that I'm managing right now, with the dealing with the shortcuts and oversights and mistakes they send my way when they think they've completed a PR, over what ChatGPT is capable of today.
Re: Ask HN: Do the IT layoff and the AI rise correlate?
#15Big Tech was in trouble before the A.I. boom. In particular the idea that “I want to work for FAANG” has been Hacker News’s #1 delusion that really is more like “I want to get bit by an Alligator” You certainly get paid well at those firms (except for one of the A’s) but you won’t learn anything transferable because those firms are profitable because of monopolies (F, G, and 1.5 A’s) or over capitalization (N, half a…
> You certainly get paid well at those firms (except for one of the A’s) but you won’t learn anything transferable because those firms are profitable because of monopolies (F, G, and 1.5 A’s) or over capitalization (N, half an A, look at the case of Uber, it is easy to sell a lot of half price taxi rides but it doesn’t make money in the long term.)
this is 100% inaccurate and misleading. big tech pay has been 2-3x many other place. even with drop in equity, sr sde at company like amazon earning $400k-450k a year, principal engineer over $650k.
the one big benefit of big tech is ability to learn and grow. they literally incentivize building large scale system to get promoted, even if it mean we now have 2, 3, or 4 thing solve same problem and you new version inferior in some capability.
im big critic of big tech especially amazon me former employer. my post history should prove it. but this post off the mark.
you want to learn and make ton of money? yeah go to big tech. but do not delude youself about doing something positive for world, or that you company care about you, or whatever other fantasy people hold
Re: Ask HN: Do the IT layoff and the AI rise correlate?
#16Earlier quoted context omitted.
> if it becomes a human-level AGI copilot that lets a CEO run a Fortune 500 with just a few dozen prompt engineers if thats the case everyone in the world will want a piece of this easy pie, this results in competition, that results in needing more talent to compete. and when (or better yet if) we ever get to AGI, then it will be the end of humanity anyway. we will have far more pressing problems than looking for a j…
u forget that there are torches and angry mobs of people, right? at some point a forceful redistribution of wealth will happen naturally, like it did in history many times before.
With enough progress in robotics, the redistribution will be preventable.
Re: Ask HN: Do the IT layoff and the AI rise correlate?
#17Anyone saying that developers gonna be replaced with AI just don’t trully understand what software engineering profession is exactly about.
Re: Ask HN: Do the IT layoff and the AI rise correlate?
#18Anyone saying that developers gonna be replaced with AI just don’t trully understand what software engineering profession is exactly about.
Agreed, AI wont be able to pump out jira stories with vague requirements and totally random story point estimates like todays humans.
Re: Ask HN: Do the IT layoff and the AI rise correlate?
#19Earlier quoted context omitted.
> then forget trying to become a plumber I think the election of "plumber" is just a saying, but I expect plumbers to be one of the safest professions. You need to make a hole in the wall, avoid the electricity wires and structural columns. The pipes inside the wall sometimes are not like the pipes in the paper blueprint, in particular when the building is old and had some fixes before you. Identify the hole, decide…
Yes, if 95% of white collar professionals are put out of work, there will be so much competition for the trades that their labor value will be destroyed as well.
Not to mention more people will just do it themselves like they do in poorer countries already.
Re: Ask HN: Do the IT layoff and the AI rise correlate?
#20Earlier quoted context omitted.
u forget that there are torches and angry mobs of people, right? at some point a forceful redistribution of wealth will happen naturally, like it did in history many times before.
With enough progress in robotics, the redistribution will be preventable.
Not at all. At some point you have to have you money somewhere, and good luck if bank employees as well as people working as private security turn against you. These robots also have remote killswitches, and are prone to EMP.
There simply is no way to keep your wealth against the masses AND be able to exchange wealth for real physical goods and services