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Post-GPT Computing

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Re: Post-GPT Computing

#161

Post by jandrewrogers »

coldtea wrote: post #112
gitfan86 wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but we are in a world of abundance. Most people carry around what would be in 1980 a 10 million dollar supercomputer in their pocket. 10 years from now we might have the equivalent of what today costs 10 million dollars today. Automated farming means what today we consider high end and expensive produce becomes almost free. Automated transportation means that food gets delivered to you for almost nothing. Imagin…

> Yes, but we are in a world of abundance. Most people carry around what would be in 1980 a 10 million dollar supercomputer in their pocket. Most people also don't have $1000 for an emergency, live hand to mouth, and are dead scared of the cost and impact of a potential health issue. They are also overworked, underpaid, and with raising expenses, and sick of it, with depression levels skyrocketing. Having "a 10 milli…

> Most people also don't have $1000 for an emergency

This has been debunked many times. The source is misleading to the point of being deceptive, it is pushing a narrative. Per the US government, the median household has $1000 per month leftover after all ordinary expenses. A very detailed breakdown of this for each income decile is available from the BLS.

You can’t square “most Americans can’t afford a $1000 emergency expense” with “median Americans can afford to light $1000 on fire each month without impacting their standard of living”.

Re: Post-GPT Computing

#162

Post by freeone3000 »

olalonde wrote: post #101
jwestbury wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> we will either live lives of abundance and leisure or face extinction Third option, the workers no longer control the means of production, and we see levels of inequality that make the railroad barons look like they were middle class.

I doubt this third option exists. If the AI(s) lack empathy for us and we are useless to them, they will either exterminate us directly, or indirectly by denying us resources. If they have empathy for us, they will probably let us live good lives. I doubt we will be useful to them, so I doubt there is a scenario where we live miserable lives working for the AI(s).

It’s not the AIs who are in charge, it’s rich humans.

Re: Post-GPT Computing

#163

Post by tablespoon »

raldi wrote: post #156
tablespoon wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don’t get the overall doom and gloom towards LLMs on the software field. > If you are a software engineer, this will output your productivity ten fold on the upcoming years. Now you don’t need to hire junior devs and can just build the product of your dreams with very limited capital. And if you're a junior software engineer? Fuck you and be unemployed.* Do you get it now? * Until you can climb up the ladder wher…

What are the barriers to a junior dev creating their own product?

> What are the barriers to a junior dev creating their own product?

Are you seriously asking that question? What are the barriers to a junior dev writing the Linux kernel from scratch by themselves? What are the barriers from climbing from the bottom to the top of a ladder where the rungs are 20 feet apart?

Sure, start at the top, then it's great. Very few start at the top.

Re: Post-GPT Computing

#164

Post by crop_rotation »

CuriouslyC wrote: post #144
tablespoon wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What happens to social mobility in the post GPT world[?] If the technology pans out the way the techno-enthusiasts hope it will, upward social mobility will be nearly eliminated... unless there's some kind of successful Luddite revolution against the technology and the people that own it . But that's not going to happen: there are all kinds of social pressure against revolution, as well as strict gun control in mos…

I don't think social mobility will be eliminated, I think the variance of individual mobility will just be radically increased. This technology will allow entrepreneurs and solo content creators to accomplish a lot more, but it'll also eliminate a lot of safe career paths. As a result, if you don't want to be stuck in the underclass doing manual labor or customer service, you'll need to either be brilliant, well conn…

Your points all resonate with me. But the end result is same, the opportunities available for social mobility to an average person would reduce. I am not even sure of the 2nd and 3rd order effects. How would an industry like hospitality survive if most of the knowledge work based jobs are gone.

Re: Post-GPT Computing

#165

Post by Version467 »

dsign wrote: post #22

In the last few weeks, I've noted on myself how I've been going through several stages of the Chat-GPT "disease", or whatever it is. My first reaction was to be afraid for my money-making skills. My second reaction was fear about us ourselves making ourselves irrelevant--that fear still lingers. My third wave of fright, cemented by days burning my eyes looking at a screen parsing logs and trying to figure out bugs fo…

> a collective really decide to spare power

It's either my imagination that has gone for a vacation, or yours is running wild, but that is the one thing I really can't see at all. Reducing power consumption? I don't think that's happening any time soon, or ever really.

Re: Post-GPT Computing

#166

Post by daniel_reetz »

boh wrote: post #155
crop_rotation wrote: post #103

What happens to social mobility in the post GPT world. Given that knowledge work (not just software) has been one big option for people to climb the social ladder. If the AI can reasonably do all knowledge work in future, the amount of social climbing opportunities will drastically decrease. And no, UBI will not create more opportunities for social mobility. It seems like more and more people will have to compete wit…

This is a question to ask when this actually becomes a reality. The AI taking jobs narrative is more of a marketing ploy to convince companies to buy AI services but the truth is, none of this stuff is anywhere near market ready. If a person is doing a job an AI bot can currently replace you've probably already replaced that person with cheap labor overseas. Regardless of whatever optimism is being channeled into the…

Businesses take time to react and this is recent. I'm close to Hollywood and these technologies are seeing their first value-generating uses on every project I'm privy to. What you see in public is just that-public.

Re: Post-GPT Computing

#167

Post by bmitc »

angarg12 wrote: post #158

Last week I used ChatGPT for the first time for a real world task at work. It was a self-contained lambda function to perform some admin tasks, so it seemed like an ideal fit. Although the experience was good, it's far from the end of programmers. This was my experience: * Although ChatGPT is pretty good at generating code, it kept making simple mistakes such as calling non-existing APIs or introducing bugs. Some of…

You made me think: it feels like ChatGPT is just a less accurate StackOverflow answer generator. The culture of needing to use StackOverflow is not a good one, so I'm not sure why people are considering ChatGPT to be.

Re: Post-GPT Computing

#168

Post by Inviz »

throwawayai2 wrote: post #24
DethNinja wrote: post #14

I don’t get the overall doom and gloom towards LLMs on the software field. If you are a software engineer, this will output your productivity ten fold on the upcoming years. Now you don’t need to hire junior devs and can just build the product of your dreams with very limited capital. In my opinion this technology will be as democratising as the YouTube’s early days. Instead of worrying, learn to work with it. It wil…

What happens when no junior devs are hired for 5 years? Who works their way up to replace the seniors who are leaving?

this is my thinking too. Who's going to learn coding if all basic needs are served buy the chatbot? What would be the incentive to put in the work?

Re: Post-GPT Computing

#169

Post by wefarrell »

crop_rotation wrote: post #103

What happens to social mobility in the post GPT world. Given that knowledge work (not just software) has been one big option for people to climb the social ladder. If the AI can reasonably do all knowledge work in future, the amount of social climbing opportunities will drastically decrease. And no, UBI will not create more opportunities for social mobility. It seems like more and more people will have to compete wit…

Ironically administration overhead in many industries, particularly healthcare and education, has been growing over the past several decades despite increasing technology adoption.

This is exactly the opposite of what you would expect given the increased efficiencies that come from adopting computer systems and automation.

I see AI as a continuation of this trend and I don’t expect it to put people out of work, bureaucracy will always find new ways to justify itself.

Re: Post-GPT Computing

#170

Post by anon7725 »

janetacarr wrote: post #115

I could just be rationalizing here, but I think AI will be illegal soon. The idea of banning AI to protect many well paid middle-class jobs will be a slam dunk for any politician. There will be no Post-GPT computing world, just the Turing police and console cowgirls.

It couldn’t be a worldwide ban, so that would just be shooting yourself in the foot over even a short to medium term.
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