Well deserved. I remember dealing with a whole raft of other networking technologies and Ethernet stood head-and-shoulders above anything else available at the time. One thing that is not well appreciated today is how power efficient Ethernet was, even on launch in the coax era. Other network technologies (Token Ring as embodied by IBMs network cards, for instance) consumed power like there was no tomorrow. Leading t…
I still have a soft spot in my heart for ARCNet. In the 80s it was cheaper than ethernet, but more reliable than token ring. And for the few places that prioritized determinism over throughput, it was indispensable. But ethernet kept improving speed and reliability while ARCnet retreated to shop-floor niche applications. Alas.
Bob Metcalfe wins Turing Award
231–238 of 238 posts
Re: Bob Metcalfe wins Turing Award
#232Bob has been an active member of the Austin startup community for 10+ years and I've talked with him many times. As a EE, it was cool meeting him the first time and once I'd chatted with him a few times, I finally asked the question I'd been dying to ask: How'd you come up with "Metcalfe's Law"? Metcalfe's Law states the value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of devices of the system. When I f…
HN comment of the year winner right here! Makes you wonder how many other laws are built on nothing. If there's one thing I leaned doing a Ph.D. is if you dig deep enough, you find many foundational laws of nature rely on some necessary assumption that, if proven incorrect, would topple the whole thing
Re: Bob Metcalfe wins Turing Award
#233Well deserved. I remember dealing with a whole raft of other networking technologies and Ethernet stood head-and-shoulders above anything else available at the time. One thing that is not well appreciated today is how power efficient Ethernet was, even on launch in the coax era. Other network technologies (Token Ring as embodied by IBMs network cards, for instance) consumed power like there was no tomorrow. Leading t…
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/28/technology/david-boggs-de...
Re: Bob Metcalfe wins Turing Award
#234Somewhat related: The choice of 48 bits for the hardware/station address seems to have been a pretty good choice: it's been 40+ years and we still have no run out. I'm curious to know if anyone has done the math on when Ethernet address exhaustion will occur. While the Ethernet frame has been tweaked with over the decades, addressing has been steady. Curious to know if any transition will ever been needed and how wou…
Some quick napkin math on the current MAC vendors database: 46 bits of a MAC address are reserved for universally administered unicast (i.e. a globally unique MAC assigned to identify a device). So far we have assigned ~570 billion addresses via 24/28/36 bit range assignments for the same purpose which represents a little under 1% of the space. So nothing urgent, though if we stuck with Ethernet as much as we use it…
Maybe today they are selling smaller blocks but the MAC is basically divided into 16M blocks (specified by the first 24 bits / 3 bytes) - each with a registered owner or "unassigned") and 16M MACs within the block (the lower 24 bits). That's why you can enter a MAC address into a lookup website and find out who made the NIC (google search "mac address lookup"):
Re: Bob Metcalfe wins Turing Award
#235Earlier quoted context omitted.
From the paper: > In general, connections are not used with the same intensity... so assigning equal value to them is not justified. This is the basic objection to Metcalfe’s Law... In my architectonic opinion, the perfect network comprises all nodes operating equally. Ergo the ideal is indeed Metcalfe's law, but architecture and design can be costly, which is simple the inefficient use of resources. These being very…
We are talking about computer systems that connect a network of humans. Humans are notoriously imprecise and unreliable machines. Anything more than 0.00001% is therefore a miracle.
Re: Bob Metcalfe wins Turing Award
#236Earlier quoted context omitted.
Metcalfe's law is about network impact or value, not about connections.
It counts connections and uses them as an estimate of value. However not all connections are equally valuable. And therefore the "law" is incorrect. An estimate in far better agreement with the data is O(n log(n)), and you can find multiple lines of reasoning arriving at that in https://www-users.cse.umn.edu/~odlyzko/doc/metcalfe.pdf .
Better agreement with what data, exactly? It's definitely not in that paper, and every single paper I find with data empirically testing your nlogn proposal against Metcalfe finds your nlogn doesn't fit the data at all while Metcalfe can fit well: Facebook (https://gwern.net/doc/economics/automation/metcalfes-law/201...), the entire EU (https://gwern.net/doc/economics/automation/metcalfes-law/201...), Tencent (https://gwern.net/doc/economics/automation/metcalfes-law/201...), and Bitcoin (https://gwern.net/doc/economics/automation/metcalfes-law/201...).
Re: Bob Metcalfe wins Turing Award
#237Earlier quoted context omitted.
It counts connections and uses them as an estimate of value. However not all connections are equally valuable. And therefore the "law" is incorrect. An estimate in far better agreement with the data is O(n log(n)), and you can find multiple lines of reasoning arriving at that in https://www-users.cse.umn.edu/~odlyzko/doc/metcalfe.pdf .
I see only two real 'quantitative' arguments in https://www-users.cse.umn.edu/~odlyzko/doc/metcalfe.pdf#page... . Your first argument, 'connections aren't of equal value', doesn't defeat Metcalfe. Your second argument, that Metcalfe's law would mean efficient markets would merge all networks into one, is both the most amazing overestimate of the competence & economic rationality of telecom giants I've ever seen and a…
The gravity law argument based on geographic distribution of traffic, Zipf's Law and Bradford's law all have empirical evidence behind them. That's three. Additionally another version of the same paper Bob Briscoe contributed data from British Telecom usage that supported the same scaling rule.
The second paper that you gave is interesting. Odlyzko was the one who contributed that particular argument. It is right that there are rational reasons to not interconnect. But Metcalfe would imply more of a first mover advantage than we actually see. In social networks we had Friendster, MySpace and Facebook, each of which overtook the other. How could a new entrant supplant the king? Not once, but twice?
Since then new social networks have continued to sprout and succeed. Facebook managed to stay on top, in part through purchasing other networks. One of which (Instagram) is on track to surpass Facebook in revenue.
Now let's look at the 4 papers that you collected.
The first and third have the same flaw. They are looking at revenue over time as the network grew. But the growth of the network is not the only change that happened over time.
1. The Facebook product improved to become more compelling, even for the same users. In part by adding new channels through purchasing other networks.
2. Facebook kept adding new ways to monetize people, improving revenue.
3. People's behavior has shifted to more online over time. Thus it was easier to get value from the same users in 2014 than in 2008.
Because so much has changed, comparing users in 2008 to users in 2014 is not apples to apples.
Next, let's turn to the last paper. I'm in agreement with patio11 that Bitcoin's valuation has been driven by the largest Ponzi scheme in history. Therefore I view most of its valuation as fake. And so am not inclined to accept arguments from that valuation as valid.
And I saved the best for last. In section 2.4 the EU paper argues that Briscoe's law (I think Odlyzko should be credited, but Bob Briscoe is in the EU) is more accurate than Metcalfe's law after you hit scale.
Their argument in effect is a variant of one that was discussed privately before we wrote our paper. Our immediate perception of the size of a network is based on how much of our personal social groups are on it. The value we get from that network is based on the same. Therefore our perception of the size of the network is correlated with the value we get from it. If the network mostly contains parts of groups, you do get something like Metcalfe's Law out of this. But once the network contains a lot of completed social groups, members of those groups slow down how much value they gain as the network continues to grow.
In other words when the connections in the network are a random sampling of the connections that matter to us, growing the network adds valuable connections. Once the network contains the connections that we know matters to us, most of us only benefit marginally from continued growth.