Fortune must've been living under a rock or ignored the K-shaped recovery. It's been a recession since at least 2021.
JPMorgan says the U.S. is probably headed for a recession
41–50 of 53 posts
Re: JPMorgan says the U.S. is probably headed for a recession
#42Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is the first time the US gets challenged on multiple fronts from multiple actors. China, Russia and non-alignment members are all challenging the status quo. The US dollar is being challenged from multiple fronts and one of them is Crypto. (though also the fact it's being mismanaged by its own creators is not helping either). We are definitively in an interesting time. More interesting than the cold war era? I d…
> This is the first time the US gets challenged on multiple fronts from multiple actors. China, Russia and non-alignment members are all challenging the status quo. Two blocs are emerging. One is largely unified around shared cultural interests in resilient democracy and defence of human rights. The other is a hodge-podge of malcontents, allies-of-convenience and one strong but largely regional power (i.e. China). If…
> The US (and the West) have issues with an imbalance of power and wealth, and growing numbers of disillusioned, young voters - this is the problem statement. What is the solution that the non-aligned movement can offer? Worse inequality? Fewer rights? What?
The problem is that with modern politics and all its tools, logical (proposed) solutions aren't needed. Éric Zemmour, multiple times found guilty of stoking racism on TV, got 2.5 million votes/7% of the presidential vote in France on a platform that basically consisted of "France is no longer France, let's ship everyone of foreign descent to where they come from, ban Muslims, rename every person with a foreign name, screw the EU". If you think about it for more than a few seconds, that's just terrible on multiple levels and would ruin the country alongside millions of lives. Yet 2.5 million agreed with him? Yeah, he was heavily sponsored by a shithead billionaire, but still. Similarly with Le Pen, who got 8 million for 23%, had a vague populist "foreigner's fault, EU's fault, we'll give money to the poor to subsidise fuel consumption, etc." platform, while literally being bankrolled by Russia (multiple favourable loans from banks close to Putin and friends which saved her party).
Brexit was merely the first major "Western" own goal. We'll see also how climate change changes the field.
Re: JPMorgan says the U.S. is probably headed for a recession
#43Earlier quoted context omitted.
> This is the first time the US gets challenged on multiple fronts from multiple actors. China, Russia and non-alignment members are all challenging the status quo. Two blocs are emerging. One is largely unified around shared cultural interests in resilient democracy and defence of human rights. The other is a hodge-podge of malcontents, allies-of-convenience and one strong but largely regional power (i.e. China). If…
> The US (and the West) have issues with an imbalance of power and wealth, and growing numbers of disillusioned, young voters - this is the problem statement. What is the solution that the non-aligned movement can offer? Worse inequality? Fewer rights? What? The problem is that with modern politics and all its tools, logical (proposed) solutions aren't needed. Éric Zemmour, multiple times found guilty of stoking raci…
> The problem is that with modern politics and all its tools, logical (proposed) solutions aren't needed. Éric Zemmour, multiple times found guilty of stoking racism on TV, got 2.5 million votes/7% of the presidential vote in France on a platform that basically consisted of "France is no longer France, let's ship everyone of foreign descent to where they come from, ban Muslims, rename every person with a foreign name, screw the EU".
In other Western countries it is not uncommon for 7-10+% of the vote to go toward extreme right-wing parties. This is not the death knell of Democracy. 10% of the vote is a long way from winning government.
The problem for would-be dictators who are trying to usurp the West's governments is that, once things get tough under their leadership, the population turns against them very quickly. Take the Tories in the UK - if an election were to be held today they would likely become only the third largest party in the UK lower house. Similarly the conservative Coalition in Australia; they were trounced in both state and federal elections after their competence and corruption became clear.
The West takes some hits from time to time. It's strength is in its ability to recover.
Re: JPMorgan says the U.S. is probably headed for a recession
#44Already has been, just the stock market is catching up to the real economy. This is the logical conclusion to the K-type recovery from helicopter money.
By what metric do you say this? GDP has continued to climb, the unemployment rate is basically as low as it ever has been?
Cost of living is up, wages are not. i.e., real-terms wages are down.
GDP and unemployment are blunt instruments.
Re: JPMorgan says the U.S. is probably headed for a recession
#45[dead]
Re: JPMorgan says the U.S. is probably headed for a recession
#46This is gonna be a bumpy ride. Glad I have saved up a nest egg. Though if the US dies it is not gonna save me either way.
If your nest egg is cash, it may be eroded by uncontrollable inflation. If your nest egg is in assets, it may be eroded by imploding asset markets. How do you keep your nest egg healthy?
"Divide your fortune into seven, or even into eight, for many are the mischances of the world" - the Bible (Ecclesiastes, if I recall correctly).
In other words, diversify. Hope that the areas that grow make up for the areas that implode, or at least that they don't all implode.
Re: JPMorgan says the U.S. is probably headed for a recession
#47Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is the first time the US gets challenged on multiple fronts from multiple actors. China, Russia and non-alignment members are all challenging the status quo. The US dollar is being challenged from multiple fronts and one of them is Crypto. (though also the fact it's being mismanaged by its own creators is not helping either). We are definitively in an interesting time. More interesting than the cold war era? I d…
> This is the first time the US gets challenged on multiple fronts from multiple actors. China, Russia and non-alignment members are all challenging the status quo. Two blocs are emerging. One is largely unified around shared cultural interests in resilient democracy and defence of human rights. The other is a hodge-podge of malcontents, allies-of-convenience and one strong but largely regional power (i.e. China). If…
Notably, for much of the Cold War, Soviet propaganda was such that many in the West were either unsure whether the Soviet communist experiment was working, or genuinely believed it was—including those on the political right.
The excesses and failures of the system (and the degree to which its "communism" was nothing but authoritarianism draped in a red flag) were not always clear until well after the fact.
Contrast that with today, where we may not have a perfect window into China, but we can certainly see a lot of what's going on there, including reprehensible things like the Uighur genocide, and the degree to which China's "communism" is heavily colored by capitalism on the one hand, and authoritarianism on the other.
Re: JPMorgan says the U.S. is probably headed for a recession
#48Already has been, just the stock market is catching up to the real economy. This is the logical conclusion to the K-type recovery from helicopter money.
By what metric do you say this? GDP has continued to climb, the unemployment rate is basically as low as it ever has been?
They game and change the metrics to suit the narrative they want to sell
Re: JPMorgan says the U.S. is probably headed for a recession
#49Earlier quoted context omitted.
The US has a recessions about twice a decade; its also had several depressions, though not for quite a while. They do not mean “the US dies”.
There's a little over $200 billion dollars left in the US treasury right now, we have higher debt-to-GDP than Greece did at the beginning of their sovereign debt crisis, AND we have persistent high inflation. Something has to give. You can't fight inflation and pursue monetary easing at the same time.
Fed can just print another 20 trillions. Treasury can mint a special 10T USD coin to payback FED. Nothing needs to give. As long as people have "faith" in USD, the music will continue...but those damn Yuan and Rubbles. Taht we need ro launch another Iraq war with China and Russia. They have WMD that we can blame on and get our boys there with poker cards - a version for the Russian and a version for the Chinese. Surely we can beat them as easily as Iraqis? Ignore Afghan - we always intended to replace Talebans with Talebans while we wash 10T USD for congress money laundry.
Re: JPMorgan says the U.S. is probably headed for a recession
#50This is gonna be a bumpy ride. Glad I have saved up a nest egg. Though if the US dies it is not gonna save me either way.
If your nest egg is cash, it may be eroded by uncontrollable inflation. If your nest egg is in assets, it may be eroded by imploding asset markets. How do you keep your nest egg healthy?
> Though if the US dies it is not gonna save me either way.
yeah this is what i meant by this comment.