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America’s banks are missing hundreds of billions of dollars

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Re: America’s banks are missing hundreds of billions of dollars

#291

Can anyone recommend some good blog articles or books (aimed at lay people) on how the global economy works, bank interactions with other banks, and government management of inflation and interest rates? I'd like to understand a bit about both the previous crash and the current banking crisis, but feel I need to do some background reading first.

That's none of your concern, plus it's far too complex for someone like you to understand - a lot of complex math and statistical models that only we can understand. Just leave everything to us.

Re: America’s banks are missing hundreds of billions of dollars

#292
post #89

1. The government requires banks buy their debt and hold it as reserves because it's considered the safest investment. 2. The government decides that, oops, it printed too much money in 2020/21 and is causing inflation, so it raises rates very quickly. 3. New treasuries yield 4 or 5 times as much in interest as the ones from 1-2 years ago. Why would anyone want to buy those old treasuries near face value now? 4. The…

> 2. The government decides that, oops, it printed too much money in 2020/21 and is causing inflation, so it raises rates very quickly. Printing money doesn’t cause inflation necessarily. Your thinking is based on Monetarism, which has been debunked a while ago. In essence, it’s not about the amount of money that is created. It's about the amount of goods we try to consume in relation to the amount of goods produced.

In Argentina, with our inflation over 100% a year, arguments like yours are very common. e.g. https://www.pagina12.com.ar/diario/economia/2-190369-2012-03...

Re: America’s banks are missing hundreds of billions of dollars

#293

Can anyone recommend some good blog articles or books (aimed at lay people) on how the global economy works, bank interactions with other banks, and government management of inflation and interest rates? I'd like to understand a bit about both the previous crash and the current banking crisis, but feel I need to do some background reading first.

Lords of Finance - a nonfiction book by Liaquat Ahamed about events leading up to and culminating in the Great Depression as told through the personal histories of the heads of the Central Banks of the world's four major economies at the time.

Re: America’s banks are missing hundreds of billions of dollars

#294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Printing money causing inflation has got to be one of the simplest things in economics to understand. Increase supply of thing, thing becomes worth less. And what's your source on Monetarism being debunked, the people printing currency? It's pretty strange how, when all the money was being printed, it wasn't that hard to find a plethora of economists warning that it would cause inflation (due to Monetarism principles…

> Increase supply of thing, thing becomes worth less. So as the supply chain continues to improve, prices should come down? Inflation is too much money, chasing too few goods. It's the push/pull between money supply and goods in the market that drives inflation. Money can't be talked about in a vacuum.

> So as the supply chain continues to improve, prices should come down?

That's very often the case.

Re: America’s banks are missing hundreds of billions of dollars

#295

Can anyone recommend some good blog articles or books (aimed at lay people) on how the global economy works, bank interactions with other banks, and government management of inflation and interest rates? I'd like to understand a bit about both the previous crash and the current banking crisis, but feel I need to do some background reading first.

As a layperson with no economic credentials, I’d recommend books with a bit of entertainment value, even if they may gloss over some details. It’s still important to understand the basic theory and mechanics of the financial markets, but it’s equally important to understand the human factors and politics involved, and some of these more narrative books are helpful in that regard.

I found The Big Short both entertaining and enlightening on the 2008 crash, a while back I also read “The Number” by Alex Berenson, which focuses more on corporate equities and the rise of earnings per share as a driving metric.. I did also read about half of an older book called “Secrets of the Temple”, which gives a history of how Paul Volcker handled the inflation crisis of the 80s. That was more dense but really helped solidify my understanding of the Fed. I’ve also recently started “Random Walk through Wall Street”, which again is mostly equities-focused but so far seems to give a balanced take on the financial and human factors.

As far as explaining the most recent crisis, I’ve found this blog [0] to be the most informative, approachable and somewhat entertaining. Very clear explanation of what exactly the BTFP program is doing, with a healthy amount of speculation about how it could be abused and potential effects of that. Disclaimer that it’s written by a crypto researcher, but there’s very little content about crypto.

[0] https://entrepreneurshandbook.co/kaiseki-b15230bdd09e

Re: America’s banks are missing hundreds of billions of dollars

#296
post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A decade ago I had lunch with a friend through kindergarten (our daughters were friends) he was a financial advisor and things were going good for him. I complained, as people who 'make' stuff often do, that finance was unbalancing everything and taking too big a share of profits (not to be annoying to him, just sharing a viewpoint) and he replied that the reason why finance was getting more of the share was because…

He is probably right. So many businesses have become financialized now. In the UK, John Lewis, which is/was an upmarket department store (and also owns Waitrose, a grocery store), is a mutual , owned by it's employees, but is now in the built-to-rent property market. Its literally burning the reputation and diversifying in to all kinds of gimmicks as it dies. Sainsbury's, one of the biggest supermarket chains in the…

Does Sainsbury's lend directly or does it put its name on credit cards issued by (e.g.) MBNA like many other companies? I've never looked too much at what they're up to.

Re: America’s banks are missing hundreds of billions of dollars

#297
post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Covid liquidity injections will be known as the worst decision of a generation. PPP loans were greater than student loan forgiveness for all. Greater than the new deal cost. Such a missed opportunity.

There were economists warning back in 2008-2010 the dangers of it. Despite the Fed being “independent” they are under enormous pressure from the government. The prediction was that when it was time to stop printing money the Fed wont do it fast enough since the political pressure to keep the economy going will be too high. Pretty much exactly what happened.

Nah. Fed president of that time was stupid enough to continue QE until 2014

Re: America’s banks are missing hundreds of billions of dollars

#298
post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Inflation started going up before Covid and the war in Ukraine . Saying “the central bank printed money for years without inflation” as proof it’s not the cause is like saying a gas leak didnt cause the explosion because it’s been leaking for years.

Maybe you are misinformed: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021%E2%80%932023_inflation_su...

Looks at when the trend started. Early 2020.

Re: America’s banks are missing hundreds of billions of dollars

#299
post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think so. I believe that this is the reason EU banks have been ok so far, as they do need to hedge interest rate risk.

EU banks are ok? Didn't Credite Suisse just go under and had to be forcedly saved by its main competitor?

Credit Suisse is Swiss. Switzerland is not a member of EU and they don't use euro.

Re: America’s banks are missing hundreds of billions of dollars

#300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not disagreeing that SVB was wrong , but it's easy for us arm-chair folks to second-guess the wisdom of creating a business model that was doomed in a once-in-40-year-catastrophe. But, "Silicon Valley" was in the name and 40 years was a long time ago, so why not.

Risk management is not that difficult. Interest Rate exposure is a first order risk that even juniors should be able hedge out properly - it's not some exotic event where correlations went out of whack or something. These guys were either clueless / had no visibility into their balance sheet or outright criminal.

Exactly
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