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Polio cases in Africa linked to new oral vaccine

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Re: Polio cases in Africa linked to new oral vaccine

#41

Post by aw1621107 »

claytongulick wrote: post #38

I've read in a few reputable seeming places that polio was on the decline before the vaccine was introduced [1]. This chart [2] (if accurate) is pretty eye opening. I've also read that the diagnostic criteria for polio was changed roughly in conjunction with the release of the vaccine, which resulted in a significant decline in case counts. This article [3] discusses that and the headline claims to debunk it, but the…

> This chart [2] (if accurate) is pretty eye opening.

It might be important to note that that chart specifically tracks deaths, not incidence.

At least according to the US CDC [0], paralytic polio (which I think most people think of when they see the word "polio") is generally the type that kills, usually due to paralysis of respiratory muscles and related symptoms.

Given all that, it turns out that the first iron lung that saw widespread use was developed in... 1928! (And other versions had been developed before that) [1] And iron lungs are fantastic for preventing death due to paralysis of respiratory muscles, as the lung does the muscles' job. This could either be until the patient recovers or permanent.

So in short, it's entirely possible the death rate fell because new tech allowed doctors to get better at keeping patients alive, rather than reducing the incidence, as the vaccines were generally intended to do.

> I've also read that the primary contributing factor to the decline (and recent rise) in polio is sanitary conditions.

At least according to the CDC, it's a mixed bag:

> In the immediate prevaccine era, during the first half of the 20th century, improved sanitation resulted in less frequent exposure and increased the age of primary infection, resulting in large epidemics with high numbers of deaths.

Can't really say much on the other claims or the paper, since that'd take way more expertise and/or time than I currently have.

[0]: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/pubs/pinkbook/polio.html

[1]: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_lung

Re: Polio cases in Africa linked to new oral vaccine

#42

Post by claytongulick »

aw1621107 wrote: post #41
claytongulick wrote: post #38

I've read in a few reputable seeming places that polio was on the decline before the vaccine was introduced [1]. This chart [2] (if accurate) is pretty eye opening. I've also read that the diagnostic criteria for polio was changed roughly in conjunction with the release of the vaccine, which resulted in a significant decline in case counts. This article [3] discusses that and the headline claims to debunk it, but the…

> This chart [2] (if accurate) is pretty eye opening. It might be important to note that that chart specifically tracks deaths , not incidence . At least according to the US CDC [0], paralytic polio (which I think most people think of when they see the word "polio") is generally the type that kills, usually due to paralysis of respiratory muscles and related symptoms. Given all that, it turns out that the first iron…

These are great points, thanks for helping me learn something!

Re: Polio cases in Africa linked to new oral vaccine

#43

Post by freehorse »

albert_e wrote: post #21

I didn't know a vaccine could CAUSE the disease it is meant to prevent. If a layman said this I would have dismissed them as a conspiracy nut. How common is this across all vaccines in general (irrespective of how low the probabilities are in each case.)

It depends on the vaccine. Some vaccines use a "weakened" form of the pathogen to trigger immunity response without causing actual disease, but sometimes, especially in cases of weaker immune systems, this can cause actual disease. This is not the case with most modern vaccines as they use different methods (and certainly not of covid19 vaccines), and certainly not what antivaxxers usually talk about (if anything, covid19-antivaxxers for example were proponents of getting _real_ infection instead of vaccine).

Re: Polio cases in Africa linked to new oral vaccine

#44

Post by freehorse »

elcritch wrote: post #37
pengaru wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is more or less why antivaxxers have at least some rational ground to stand on. And this isn't the first time a Polio vaccine has caused the disease [0]: > In April 1955 more than 200,000 children in five Western and > mid-Western USA states received a polio vaccine in which the > process of inactivating the live virus proved to be defective. > Within days there were reports of paralysis and within a month > the…

Right, I believe the messaging around vaccines exacerbates the issue too. Especially with mrna covid-19 vaccines, the condescending tone used by the CDC and media outlets while implying no safety risks throw people off. If you don't upfront say there's some risk and explain it it gives room for antivaxxer propaganda that builds on those doubts. IMHO, the media campaigns for the mRNA vaccines did the opposite of that.…

It is the word "vaccine" that somehow triggers scary narratives in these crowds; recently, in denmark a very common antibiotic was found that it contained a bunch of highly antibiotic resistant bacteria, causing disease to a few people, and having unpredictable consequences for a lot more in the future (as it seems that these antibiotic resistant bacteria have colonised them and can potentially trigger disease any point). If this was a vaccine it would have triggered a lot of different narratives than just being in some news.

Re: Polio cases in Africa linked to new oral vaccine

#45

Post by makomk »

jjtheblunt wrote: post #40
makomk wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"A problem" is a bit of an understatement... at this point it's basically caused the global polio eradication effort to fail. Wild type 2 poliovirus no longer exists anywhere in the world, and all infections with it over the last couple of decades are vaccine-derived. The original plan was that everywhere would switch to a bivalent oral vaccine without the type 2 virus, any remaining vaccine-derived outbreaks could b…

> Wild type 2 poliovirus no longer exists anywhere in the world… How do you prove that claim?

It's impossible to be 100% certain, but there's no animal reservoirs for polio that have ever been known to exist and it hasn't been seen in humans for a couple of decades now - if it was still in existence we'd probably know about it by know, given how infectious polio is. All of the recent outbreaks are either type 1 poliovirus (mostly in Pakistan and Afghanistan) or have been linked to the vaccine via genetic testing.

Re: Polio cases in Africa linked to new oral vaccine

#46

Post by Izkata »

freehorse wrote: post #43
albert_e wrote: post #21

I didn't know a vaccine could CAUSE the disease it is meant to prevent. If a layman said this I would have dismissed them as a conspiracy nut. How common is this across all vaccines in general (irrespective of how low the probabilities are in each case.)

It depends on the vaccine. Some vaccines use a "weakened" form of the pathogen to trigger immunity response without causing actual disease, but sometimes, especially in cases of weaker immune systems, this can cause actual disease. This is not the case with most modern vaccines as they use different methods (and certainly not of covid19 vaccines), and certainly not what antivaxxers usually talk about (if anything, co…

> Some vaccines use a "weakened" form of the pathogen to trigger immunity response without causing actual disease

For anyone who wants to look up more, the word "attenuated" is used to describe this.

> This is not the case with most modern vaccines

It's actually really common, just not with flu shots: https://www.hhs.gov/immunization/basics/types/index.html

Re: Polio cases in Africa linked to new oral vaccine

#47

Post by PoignardAzur »

elcritch wrote: post #37
pengaru wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is more or less why antivaxxers have at least some rational ground to stand on. And this isn't the first time a Polio vaccine has caused the disease [0]: > In April 1955 more than 200,000 children in five Western and > mid-Western USA states received a polio vaccine in which the > process of inactivating the live virus proved to be defective. > Within days there were reports of paralysis and within a month > the…

Right, I believe the messaging around vaccines exacerbates the issue too. Especially with mrna covid-19 vaccines, the condescending tone used by the CDC and media outlets while implying no safety risks throw people off. If you don't upfront say there's some risk and explain it it gives room for antivaxxer propaganda that builds on those doubts. IMHO, the media campaigns for the mRNA vaccines did the opposite of that.…

> All existing vaccines have risk, however they're at least a factor off 100 safer

mRNA vaccines are qualitatively different, though, not just slightly further on a sliding scale. The only risks AFAIK are from the delivery mechanism and the immune response; the payload itself is, well, mRNA molecules, which can't produce pathogens at all.

Re: Polio cases in Africa linked to new oral vaccine

#48

Post by icemelt8 »

albert_e wrote: post #21

I didn't know a vaccine could CAUSE the disease it is meant to prevent. If a layman said this I would have dismissed them as a conspiracy nut. How common is this across all vaccines in general (irrespective of how low the probabilities are in each case.)

I am from Pakistan, one of the last remaining countries where Polio is not eradicated, all cases of Polio in Pakistan are from vaccines.

Re: Polio cases in Africa linked to new oral vaccine

#49

Post by gus_massa »

claytongulick wrote: post #42
aw1621107 wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This chart [2] (if accurate) is pretty eye opening. It might be important to note that that chart specifically tracks deaths , not incidence . At least according to the US CDC [0], paralytic polio (which I think most people think of when they see the word "polio") is generally the type that kills, usually due to paralysis of respiratory muscles and related symptoms. Given all that, it turns out that the first iron…

These are great points, thanks for helping me learn something!

Also, polio has waves. 95% of the persons that get the virus doesn't get paralysis, so in a big outbreak most people get infected but only a small part get paralysis.

If there are no infections going on for a long time, there are many people that can be infected and if there are some initial cases you can get a wave. After the wave almost everyone got infected and will not be infected again so any outbreak dies. But after some years there are too many young people that can be infected and you get another big wave.

Total cases in USA: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/reported-paralytic-polio-... Note that the peak is near 60.000 per year

Recent worldwide cases https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polio#/media/File:Number_of_wi... Note that the peak for the wild type is near 2000 and the vaccine derived type is near 1000.

Re: Polio cases in Africa linked to new oral vaccine

#50

Post by btilly »

PoignardAzur wrote: post #47
elcritch wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right, I believe the messaging around vaccines exacerbates the issue too. Especially with mrna covid-19 vaccines, the condescending tone used by the CDC and media outlets while implying no safety risks throw people off. If you don't upfront say there's some risk and explain it it gives room for antivaxxer propaganda that builds on those doubts. IMHO, the media campaigns for the mRNA vaccines did the opposite of that.…

> All existing vaccines have risk, however they're at least a factor off 100 safer mRNA vaccines are qualitatively different, though, not just slightly further on a sliding scale. The only risks AFAIK are from the delivery mechanism and the immune response; the payload itself is, well, mRNA molecules, which can't produce pathogens at all.

What you say is both true and misleading.

While you correctly identify the cause, the rates of myocarditis and pericarditis younger people receiving the vaccine are far higher than with other vaccines we give. See https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/12/5/e059223 for verification.

As a result some countries, such as Sweden, have opted to NOT offer COVID vaccines to children under 12. https://www.euronews.com/next/2022/02/25/covid-vaccine-for-c...

The fact that the USA shut down the discussion before it even happened is a problem.

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