Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

JPMorgan says the U.S. is probably headed for a recession

fortune.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

21–30 of 53 posts

Re: JPMorgan says the U.S. is probably headed for a recession

#21

Post by csomar »

dragonwriter wrote: post #8
honkycat wrote: post #5

This is gonna be a bumpy ride. Glad I have saved up a nest egg. Though if the US dies it is not gonna save me either way.

The US has a recessions about twice a decade; its also had several depressions, though not for quite a while. They do not mean “the US dies”.

This is the first time the US gets challenged on multiple fronts from multiple actors. China, Russia and non-alignment members are all challenging the status quo. The US dollar is being challenged from multiple fronts and one of them is Crypto. (though also the fact it's being mismanaged by its own creators is not helping either).

We are definitively in an interesting time. More interesting than the cold war era? I don't know but we shall see.

Re: JPMorgan says the U.S. is probably headed for a recession

#22

Post by csomar »

wahern wrote: post #18
peepeepoopoo3 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a little over $200 billion dollars left in the US treasury right now, we have higher debt-to-GDP than Greece did at the beginning of their sovereign debt crisis, AND we have persistent high inflation. Something has to give. You can't fight inflation and pursue monetary easing at the same time.

Greece's debt-to-GDP ratio never stopped climbing; it peaked at over 200% in 2020. The crisis, meanwhile, was short-lived as the ratio per se was not among the most salient factors.

Greece crisis is short-lived? Greece never recovered from the crisis.

Employment in Greece in 2010: 4.6 million.

Employment in Greece now: around 4.0 million.

Sure the unemployment rate has gone "down". That's because the youth gave up and simply moved from Greece. The GDP per capita will improve because of that but their GDP in constant prices never recovered (and is around 2002-2004 levels).

Re: JPMorgan says the U.S. is probably headed for a recession

#23

Post by CameronNemo »

csomar wrote: post #21
dragonwriter wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US has a recessions about twice a decade; its also had several depressions, though not for quite a while. They do not mean “the US dies”.

This is the first time the US gets challenged on multiple fronts from multiple actors. China, Russia and non-alignment members are all challenging the status quo. The US dollar is being challenged from multiple fronts and one of them is Crypto. (though also the fact it's being mismanaged by its own creators is not helping either). We are definitively in an interesting time. More interesting than the cold war era? I d…

>This is the first time the US gets challenged on multiple fronts from multiple actors

Laughs in WWII

Re: JPMorgan says the U.S. is probably headed for a recession

#24

Post by shrimpx »

honkycat wrote: post #5

This is gonna be a bumpy ride. Glad I have saved up a nest egg. Though if the US dies it is not gonna save me either way.

If your nest egg is cash, it may be eroded by uncontrollable inflation. If your nest egg is in assets, it may be eroded by imploding asset markets. How do you keep your nest egg healthy?

Re: JPMorgan says the U.S. is probably headed for a recession

#25

Post by [deleted] »

monkeydreams wrote: post #12
honkycat wrote: post #5

This is gonna be a bumpy ride. Glad I have saved up a nest egg. Though if the US dies it is not gonna save me either way.

Even in this rapidly changing world it would be unwise to bet against the nation that has the US's habit of reinventing itself.

[deleted]

Re: JPMorgan says the U.S. is probably headed for a recession

#27

Post by mgarfias »

haneefmubarak wrote: post #20
chamakits wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Multiple states have a similar law but it gets worked around. They usually work around this by providing a “severance” that covers the legal period of time before they have to notify their employees; and they only have to do any of this above a certain threshold of how many employees are getting laid off. So if the law says you have to notify 2 months in advance, they’ll instead give you at least 2 months severance,…

I think that's the idea though, to allow folks time to transition easier. Whether you get notified 2 months early and then start interviewing or you get laid off with 2 months of severance and start interviewing, isn't the outcome relatively similar?

And, would you want someone working for you that knows they’re getting canned and might be vindictive to have access to your bits?

I think the layoff w/severance is a better setup. When it happens I don’t need to pretend to work, I can focus on finding the new gig instead.

Re: JPMorgan says the U.S. is probably headed for a recession

#28

Post by wahern »

peepeepoopoo3 wrote: post #19
wahern wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Greece's debt-to-GDP ratio never stopped climbing; it peaked at over 200% in 2020. The crisis, meanwhile, was short-lived as the ratio per se was not among the most salient factors.

Geece had to massively increase taxes and implement austerity programs, to say nothing of the EU bailout. Since then, they've been able to survive on low interest rates. Low interest rates which are now gone, as the world is busy fighting inflation.

Inflation cuts both ways, eviscerating older debt. That's the whole reason for the present banking crisis. In any event, the debt-to-GDP ratio being higher than Greece's at the time of its debt crisis says absolutely nothing by itself about the U.S. situation. Pointing it out is a baseless, cheap insinuation.

Re: JPMorgan says the U.S. is probably headed for a recession

#29

Post by Rury »

shrimpx wrote: post #24
honkycat wrote: post #5

This is gonna be a bumpy ride. Glad I have saved up a nest egg. Though if the US dies it is not gonna save me either way.

If your nest egg is cash, it may be eroded by uncontrollable inflation. If your nest egg is in assets, it may be eroded by imploding asset markets. How do you keep your nest egg healthy?

Inflation is a lagging metric. Inflation of 8%, means prices today are 8% higher than compared to a previous time. Holding onto cash when inflation is at 8% would be the good option, provided prices drop in the future (ie you're not losing 8% on holding your cash currently when inflation reads 8%, rather it's cash compared to last year which has lost 8% if you spend it now). As to whether we'll get inflation or deflation in the future, look to the Fed, they are the biggest market participant. Future is what matters, not the past.

Re: JPMorgan says the U.S. is probably headed for a recession

#30

Post by s1artibartfast »

shrimpx wrote: post #24
honkycat wrote: post #5

This is gonna be a bumpy ride. Glad I have saved up a nest egg. Though if the US dies it is not gonna save me either way.

If your nest egg is cash, it may be eroded by uncontrollable inflation. If your nest egg is in assets, it may be eroded by imploding asset markets. How do you keep your nest egg healthy?

One option is to put your nest egg in a durable asset that you cherish, enjoy, and get daily use from.
Post reply on HN