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The Age of AI has begun

gatesnotes.com

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Re: The Age of AI has begun

#201

Post by stuven »

hackerlight wrote: post #154
rf15 wrote: post #36

Considering everything, it sounds more like another big wegde hammered into the divide. This will just make the rich richer, because now they can even save on artists, writers and other "expenses", all of which they can just add to their bonus now. All while you of course will still pay full price for whatever they offer. Admittedly I write this in frustration, from the perspective of someone who has friends who did…

> This will just make the rich richer Wealth isn't zero-sum. Your friends who got laid off had their jobs automated. Now what will happen, is they will go to other parts of the economy and add value where they are more needed. Total economic output has just increased and the world economy is now slightly more productive (same number of people making more stuff). You can't protest against your friends losing their job…

Where are they needed now do you think? This isn't a rhetorical question.

Re: The Age of AI has begun

#202

Post by dragonwriter »

anon7725 wrote: post #200
dragonwriter wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You can easily tune it You literally can’t [0], though you can prompt it. [0] Unless you are an OpenAI insider or someone else with privileged access to the model that isn’t provided to the public.

I mean that ChatGPT sounding like a "marketing ad copy robot" is not an inherent limitation of ChatGPT, it's merely the finishing stage of its training process. If OpenAI wanted to, they could have a hundred ChatGPT flavors.

It’s true that OpenAI can change it radically by tuning, but to a very significant extent users can change it by prompting (which is more actionable for people building apps on top of the chat models) but lack the ability to do tuning (which OpenAI makes available for the base GPT-3.5, etc., models but not the chat models, including GPT-4, which is currently available, even via the API, only as a chat model.)

Re: The Age of AI has begun

#203

Post by neilobremski »

I think Gates is right that AI is the next era (obvious) and wrong about its positive improvements. More convenient productivity has brought about more garbage output and done nothing to release modern anxiety. If anything, AI is going to cause us to waste time in even more stupendously meaningless things because it's doing all our thinking. And anyway it can waste an infinite amount of our time by having us read or watch its infinite output.

Re: The Age of AI has begun

#204

Post by tenpies »

joenot443 wrote: post #167
le-mark wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ve adopted a similarly pessimistic view, that even if I’m one of the ones who gets to keep my job, “it’s” all going to shit from here. I’m surprised and confused to say the least.

Same boat. I think in the ways gen-x’ers talk about the “pre-internet” days spent offline, we’ll talk about the “pre-AI” days spent online. I can imagine a flood of content so gargantuan and vast that by 2030, finding new real words online written by real breathing people will be like finding a teacup in a junkyard. I’ll stress that this view is strictly my own and not my employers, but I personally wish this box had…

> we’ll talk about the “pre-AI” days spent online.

I like the pre-social media days we spent online. When making a web site took some non-trivial effort so just having something up and hosted meant that you were either interested in the technology, or felt that whatever you were publishing was important enough to warrant the effort.

When there were no "normies" online, or if they were, they were confined to e-mail.

I'm sure if you go far back enough, you'll find someone centuries ago expressing the same thing. Oh how the printing press has cheapened writing. Back when people had to put quill on paper, they really had something to say . . .

Re: The Age of AI has begun

#205

Post by tenpies »

adventured wrote: post #140
epups wrote: post #80

I like Bill Gates - out of the major iconic tech personas, he is one of the most interesting to me. Yes he kind of didn't see internet or phones coming, so it's not like he is an oracle, but he is right on many issues too. I think he is right on this one as well. The most intriguing prediction was the medical one. He envisions training "medical AIs" that can act as a source of knowledge in poorer countries. Honestly,…

> Yes he kind of didn't see internet or phones coming Microsoft, led by Gates, were far ahead on pursuing smartphones. They picked the wrong approach (Gates was certain it'd use a stylus for interaction; Jobs was certain the finger was the ideal tool) and lost to the path Apple pursued. They absolutely saw it, at least a decade before the iPhone was launched.

Yes, I loved the direction Microsoft was going with their phones and Windows Mobile.

Microsoft Continuum was insane - you would be able to plug in your phone to a USB-hub like dock with monitor and keyboard, and it would effective run a near-desktop Windows experience[1]. In 2015.

Tiles were also so ahead of their time it was insane.

---

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZQ44vz5MJ4s

Re: The Age of AI has begun

#206

Post by spunker540 »

asdff wrote: post #176
93po wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anything where it's less time consuming to validate work than to do the work yourself, which is a lot. If it's not real-time like driving then this is great.

I'm scratching my head at an output where it would take less time to verify than to just do it yourself. Once you've fully verified you've put in the work required to do it yourself, no?

It’s a lot easier to proofread something than to write it from scratch.

Also from a computational complexity angle there’s actually a mathematical definition — “NP Complete” which describes problems that are cheap to verify but hard to solve. One example could be a solution to a maze. It’s easy to look at the maze solution and verify it connects start to end without crossing walls, but much more time consuming to actually solve the maze with all the wrong turns needed to produce a solution.

Re: The Age of AI has begun

#207

Post by monkeyshelli »

stuven wrote: post #201
hackerlight wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This will just make the rich richer Wealth isn't zero-sum. Your friends who got laid off had their jobs automated. Now what will happen, is they will go to other parts of the economy and add value where they are more needed. Total economic output has just increased and the world economy is now slightly more productive (same number of people making more stuff). You can't protest against your friends losing their job…

Where are they needed now do you think? This isn't a rhetorical question.

I wonder does it ultimately lead, in civilized societies, to the notion of "basic income"

Re: The Age of AI has begun

#208

Post by t0bia_s »

tenpies wrote: post #204
joenot443 wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Same boat. I think in the ways gen-x’ers talk about the “pre-internet” days spent offline, we’ll talk about the “pre-AI” days spent online. I can imagine a flood of content so gargantuan and vast that by 2030, finding new real words online written by real breathing people will be like finding a teacup in a junkyard. I’ll stress that this view is strictly my own and not my employers, but I personally wish this box had…

> we’ll talk about the “pre-AI” days spent online. I like the pre-social media days we spent online. When making a web site took some non-trivial effort so just having something up and hosted meant that you were either interested in the technology, or felt that whatever you were publishing was important enough to warrant the effort. When there were no "normies" online, or if they were, they were confined to e-mail. I…

Same with films. On analog, you have really think what story you want to say. Mistakes was expensive. Nowadays cheap mistakes let you experiment more, but again... Without thinking about purpose of those experiment, nothing valuable is made.

Re: The Age of AI has begun

#209

Post by f0ld »

mrcartmeneses wrote: post #195
tjchear wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We're just trapped in the present day tech zeitgeist. Taking a step back and looking at things on a longer time scale, you'll see there has always been good people to keep things in balance, and the general state of things improves over time. There are great people working on tools to identify AI generated content, and even regular people will eventually catch up to the impact generative AI brings and adapt according…

Unfortunately the last time we had a publishing revolution we had two world wars before we got the press properly regulated. We’re now having two publishing revolutions within 30 years and are only in early stage fascism

Hey, don’t forget the thirty years war after the invention of printing press

Re: The Age of AI has begun

#210

Post by f0ld »

UBI, UBI, UBI ! Then who’s going to clean the toilet? yes that’s exactly what needs to happen right now. Less supply of workforce, high demand for automation. Less carbon footprint, long term. Whoever has better Ai will win any major future global conflict. They will be fought by drones and robot spiders. I feel like every piece of puzzle is coming together. Look around. Everyone’s getting old. No babies being born. Yes we are at THAT point.
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