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Here is a real alternative - John William's shadow stats. He simply measures inflation as the government used to in the 80s and 70s, and surprise surprise its more like 10% or 14% - no phony "Owner's equivalent rent".
Thats still 2 more than 2.
Thats still 2 more than 2.
2% is an arbitrary target. According to Volcker in his autobiography its has its origins in an offhand comment in a news story from then RBNZ governor during a bout with inflation that they would be happy if they brought inflation down to about 2%.
There is no way that matches reality, where does the person publishing such a chart even live? Do they buy eggs or pay rent? Here is a real alternative - John William's shadow stats. He simply measures inflation as the government used to in the 80s and 70s, and surprise surprise its more like 10% or 14% - no phony "Owner's equivalent rent". http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts
The US government claims it's 6.0%. What does the US government gain by reporting a higher inflation rate?
There's a lot of different ways to measure inflation. This is based on their own methodology and white paper ( https://truflation.com/methodology/ ) which I have yet to review. It's almost certainly not "something to gain" but instead just different weights, different sources, different approach.
Big delta from the Fed's number. Much more promising. It might give the Fed a little bit of wiggle room in dealing with the banking situation. If we can weather these last few blips, we might be back to smooth sailing soon. The economy is buzzing along by all other measures.
If you want to predict Fed movements, your best bet is probably the Core PCE:
https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-p...
Thats still 2 more than 2.
From the whitepaper: > We propose using the world’s vast data access, blockchain technology, and the enormous potential of decentralized systems and organizations to provide a developer solution to the inflation problem. > Truflation is the first true US inflation index based on the independent data sources and metrics created by developers and crypto investors for developers and the crypto community. > The US Trufla…
There is no way that matches reality, where does the person publishing such a chart even live? Do they buy eggs or pay rent? Here is a real alternative - John William's shadow stats. He simply measures inflation as the government used to in the 80s and 70s, and surprise surprise its more like 10% or 14% - no phony "Owner's equivalent rent". http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts
Things other than inflation can cause prices of specific XYZ to rise. Wasn't there some bird flu thing that constrained the egg supply? Rent and housing costs were going up before the pandemic. Add this to the existing inflation and it's bad, esp. for housing costs.
The specific reasons sum up to cause inflation, not the other way round.