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Why northern Europe is so indebted (2021)

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21–30 of 153 posts

Re: Why northern Europe is so indebted (2021)

#21
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also, most europeans tend to settle down, and not move across the continent every few years, so buying instead of renting makes even more sense, since you'll be staying in that house probably for the rest of your life.

Where the hell are people "moving across the continent every few years"?

The US and Canada.

Re: Why northern Europe is so indebted (2021)

#22
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also, most europeans tend to settle down, and not move across the continent every few years, so buying instead of renting makes even more sense, since you'll be staying in that house probably for the rest of your life.

Where the hell are people "moving across the continent every few years"?

USA. Eg: Seattle has lots of out-of-state migrants, as does SFBay, Boston and NY.

Re: Why northern Europe is so indebted (2021)

#23
post #7

Not Northern Europe, but Czech Resident here. There has been an explosion in house prices here, a truly wild one. I bought my place for 3.6m CZK about 7 years back and according to a recent valuation practices is "worth" nearly double this now. It is fucking wild, and tbh I kind of hate it.

In US markets, prices have basically tripled from what they were 7-9 years ago.

Uh... big asterisk here depending on where you live.

Re: Why northern Europe is so indebted (2021)

#24
As always with debt, how bad it is very much depends on the interest rate of the loans. I bought an apartment here in Sweden a couple of years ago with the minimal required down payment (kontantinsats) of 15%, but 20% of my debt is still my student loan that currently has an interest rate of 0.59% (it was 0% a few years ago).

I will say that the housing loans here have one potential issue though: it's very common to have a variable (or only 2 year fixed) interest rate on your loan, so Swedish borrowers will notice increased interest rates much sooner than borrowers in countries where 5+ year fixed rates are common.

Around 80% of new loans for house purchases here have their initial rate fixed for only 1 year or shorter [1].

[1] https://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/quickview.do;jsessionid=3DC3C894DA...

Re: Why northern Europe is so indebted (2021)

#25
post #22
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where the hell are people "moving across the continent every few years"?

USA. Eg: Seattle has lots of out-of-state migrants, as does SFBay, Boston and NY.

What's the source for that? Doesn't sound right when I've seen claims such as "nearly 72% of Americans live in or close to the city where they grew up" [1] and "the typical adult lives only 18 miles from his or her mother" [2].

[1] https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/what-percentage-of-...

[2] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/12/24/upshot/24up-f...

Re: Why northern Europe is so indebted (2021)

#26
post #8

Seems a bit general. Sweden is very much in debt because of the housing market. 15 years ago there were little regulation. You could get a 100 year mortgage with a variable rate and no money down. At the same time the government sold large amounts of public housing at below public market rate. Interest rates went from ~4% to ~1.5%. With no wealth or property taxes, but with tax deductions for renovations and interest…

300 to 400 year mortgages, on a fixed rate, sounds like my kind of deal...

Re: Why northern Europe is so indebted (2021)

#27

When you live in a stable society and have gotten a free education and a nice job, it makes sense to get a loan to buy a place to live and start paying a mortgage instead of debt. Contrast with a society where the average education might be lower, less people having a stable job in a slow labor market, and if you lose your job there is no safety net. Hard to get a loan, so end up renting for longer, and in turn have…

In the absence of credit, if everyone had to pay with everything in cash, almost no one would have a home or car.

It's stability of ability to service debt that matters, not the debt itself.

High debt / income ratio at the micro level is bad, of course.

Re: Why northern Europe is so indebted (2021)

#28
I really don't like the graphs / diagrams in that article. I feel they need units on the graphs.

And figure 2. is based on data from 2007

And figure 3. is comparing very different things on the same diagram.

If this were an undergraduate project I would not give it a pass.

Re: Why northern Europe is so indebted (2021)

#29

The explanation here still wasn't clear to me after several readings. They're showing that a bias towards social spending on the elderly was co-related with higher overall debt. But I'm unclear on their explanation. Given they're talking about mortgage debt in particular, would like to see plotted against housing prices. Especially curious if certain kinds social spending helps shore up baseline housing prices by inc…

I read it like welfare spending towards young caused the higher debt taking. Countries which had the bias towards elderly don’t encourage to take loans.

Also I’ve found that housing prices follow closely the ability to take loans up here.

Re: Why northern Europe is so indebted (2021)

#30
post #8

Seems a bit general. Sweden is very much in debt because of the housing market. 15 years ago there were little regulation. You could get a 100 year mortgage with a variable rate and no money down. At the same time the government sold large amounts of public housing at below public market rate. Interest rates went from ~4% to ~1.5%. With no wealth or property taxes, but with tax deductions for renovations and interest…

Last time I looked at statistics Swedens debt to GDP was 35%, one of the lowest I saw, which doesn’t really make sense to me when I consider the weakness of the currency, but then again I am just a humble engineer and I have no clue about these things.

UK is close to 100% debt to GDP at the moment, the highest in recorded history.

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