> I have to wonder if those making these grandiose claims about the near future of AI have actually used GPT-4 and its predecessors in their work
I have used GPT-3 a fair bit, and used GPT-4 today. The differences are impressive, scary impressive so far. I am basing my `GPT(n+1)` observation on the rapid rate the tech is filling in holes that previous detractors pointed out.
The differences in code reviews is amazing. In GPT-3 it basically explained the method and said it looked good, "add some comments" was its only suggestion. GPT-4 on the other hand gave a code snippet to explain why JS "await" was unnecessary, suggested better variable names, and suggested moving some imports to a more simple file structure to reduce verbose import paths.
I think that's a beyond expectations improvement, it's so impressive it beats out the humans who reviewed the code and we implemented one of the suggestions.
If GPT-4 had ingested the entire code-base code reviews would easily be automated, humans would still do their passes but as a co-worker GPT would be invaluable. It would find swaths of missed efficiencies, fix slow SQL queries, look for testing gaps, and perhaps even assist in refactoring.
Personally I think we are underestimating the potential, I feel like we are where the world was in 1990 looking at the emerging internet. So many people underestimated the impact of the internet, many technology writers said it was hyperbole, couldn't replace bricks and mortar stores, email was never going to be for everyone, and so on. All of it wrong, profoundly missing the potential.
This stuff is beating out expectations at every release and I think that is reason enough to take it seriously and be much more considered when downplaying the hype.
As for junior devs, we don't hire IC1 for the same reasons you outlined. However, small studios do because they are cheap and serve a purpose where it's just WordPress maintenance and HTML POCs. Those jobs will disappear.