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GPTs Are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of LLMs

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Re: GPTs Are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of LLMs

#131

Post by throwaway1851 »

textninja wrote: post #93
shanebellone wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"This is a black swan event" By definition, black swan events are unpredictable. This example isn't that.

The black swan event includes the unexpected emergent capabilities of LLMs, which can pass professional examinations and exhibit many attributes of general intelligence, combined with the broad availability to market and massive pressure on big industry players to adapt and innovate or die. If things keep going this way then pretty soon the black swans are going to outnumber the white ones.

I don’t put much stock in the claims about GPT4 “passing” professional exams. Many copies of previously administered exams are available, and the exams are formulaic in their construction (to make them stable, predictable targets).

A compressive copy of the internet brute-forcing its way through an exam (which it may even have digested already) is really not interpretable as performing well on the exam. It’s a meaningless measure because the tests were not designed with this use in mind.

Re: GPTs Are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of LLMs

#132

Post by tjpnz »

Vespasian wrote: post #66
bulbosaur123 wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfortunate in short term, but beneficial in long term.

How so? It seems like masses of people locked out of any economic growth and with no perspective are a recipe for desaster if you ask me. That's the foundation on which unrest and rebellions are built and those are usually not pleasant affairs for most people. I'm not saying that it will come to this.

If vast swathes of the population are thrown onto the scrapheap in a relatively short period of time it absolutely would come to that. The ruling class would be smashed (literally and figuratively) and you'll wake up in the morning to discover that our form of capitalism has ceased to exist.

Re: GPTs Are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of LLMs

#133

Post by Sol- »

donkeyd wrote: post #114
tgv wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My (sales-y) colleagues are already writing marketing emails with ChatGPT. Saves a little bit of work, but it might result in the loss of being able to write such emails yourself. This can extend to other jobs, which will have some effects. Use in education worries me more. If schools don't change their lazy group-projects and "write an essay on" strategies now , coming generations will have put less effort in than p…

> coming generations will have put less effort in than previous This has been happening since the inception of school. Calculators made math easier. Sparknotes made book reports easier. Wikipedia made essays easier. > leading to a further drop in levels Did levels drop because stuff got easier? Were there other causes over the past years, like dopamine dependency form infinitely scrolling algorithmic attention grabbi…

> This has been happening since the inception of school. Calculators made math easier. Sparknotes made book reports easier. Wikipedia made essays easier.

And advance of LLM will make general thinking and cognition easier, relegating humans to assistants of a higher intelligence. Obviously this will make people anxious. The trajectory also indicates that the human component will likely not even be necessary anymore in the mid-term.

So what's left? Consuming AI-generated content optimized to hack our reward system.

Re: GPTs Are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of LLMs

#134

Post by xmcqdpt2 »

sirsinsalot wrote: post #29

I asked Chat GPT which antacid medications are contraindicated for some medication I'm on. Easily found through NICE. It made up a severe risk of death taking a very common medicine combo. It was super convincing, even giving information on how long to avoid taking them together. It was pure bullshit. I think as much as hyping the benefits we need to hype the flaws and dangers. If the public at large learn to trust t…

I've been using Bing AI instead of Google for a few days to test it out. It gives responses with citations. A few times already it has hallucinated details that aren't on the cited website at all, but that do sound very plausible (for example something about the horns of a bull pointing up when I asked about the etymology of "bullish".)

I think it comes down to the fact that most stuff is actually like 90% bullshit so when you train a model on a corpus of everything you end up with a decent bullshit generator. Which is fine for many purposes but I'm not sure it will take over search.

Re: GPTs Are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of LLMs

#135

Post by neatze »

coldtea wrote: post #41
mojuba wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't want to have a calculator (or say bookkeeping software) that gives correct results most of the time but not always, and then hear from the developers that it will get better with each iteration. I need a calculator that is correct 100% of time, not even 99.999%, because otherwise I can't rely on it at all. In other words, the utility of a calculator that is correct only 99% of time is zero, since you can't ev…

> I don't want to have a calculator (or say bookkeeping software) that gives correct results most of the time but not always And yet Excel is widely popular, despite several footguns and inaccurate calculations!

Excel has consistent (I guess coherent) flaws/bugs, unlike GPT.

Re: GPTs Are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of LLMs

#137

Post by FrustratedMonky »

imposter wrote: post #111
shanebellone wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ChatGPT is nothing more than long-form autocomplete. The specifics of approach are irrelevant.

A human brain is nothing more than long-form autocomplete. The specifics of approach are irrelevant.

Exactly. All the people saying LLM's aren't important because it is just auto-complete, really don't connect the dots that humans are also just auto-complete.

Re: GPTs Are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of LLMs

#138

Post by FrustratedMonky »

Jensson wrote: post #124
auggierose wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I knew something changed after AlphaGo. Compute could do what we thought only true intelligence can do. So I agree, LLMs are not a black swan. It will change everything, nevertheless. I keep reading these opinions that LLMs are just doing some advanced form of copy paste. Actually, we don't know what they are doing. Are they actually doing some form of modelling and abstraction? Seems likely to me.

AlphaGo is basically the same as image recognition, not sure why you thought AlphaGo was special compared to detecting faces. AlphaGo works the same way but maps game structures on a Go board instead of mapping facial structures and comparing those to known people.

It was able to beat the top GO player. What does it matter if that technology is also used in image recognition. I'd say that if its 'brain' can play games and recognize people, or in case of ChatGPT4, can talk and play chess, this is all starting to sound pretty 'General' to me.

Re: GPTs Are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of LLMs

#139

Post by bitwize »

sirsinsalot wrote: post #29

I asked Chat GPT which antacid medications are contraindicated for some medication I'm on. Easily found through NICE. It made up a severe risk of death taking a very common medicine combo. It was super convincing, even giving information on how long to avoid taking them together. It was pure bullshit. I think as much as hyping the benefits we need to hype the flaws and dangers. If the public at large learn to trust t…

ChatGPT is like the robot from Asimov's short story Liar!: It doesn't tell you the truth, it tells you what it thinks you want to hear. Instead of reading minds it returns a statistically plausible response to queries similar to yours.

Re: GPTs Are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of LLMs

#140

Post by Joeri »

xmcqdpt2 wrote: post #134
sirsinsalot wrote: post #29

I asked Chat GPT which antacid medications are contraindicated for some medication I'm on. Easily found through NICE. It made up a severe risk of death taking a very common medicine combo. It was super convincing, even giving information on how long to avoid taking them together. It was pure bullshit. I think as much as hyping the benefits we need to hype the flaws and dangers. If the public at large learn to trust t…

I've been using Bing AI instead of Google for a few days to test it out. It gives responses with citations. A few times already it has hallucinated details that aren't on the cited website at all, but that do sound very plausible (for example something about the horns of a bull pointing up when I asked about the etymology of "bullish".) I think it comes down to the fact that most stuff is actually like 90% bullshit s…

It is telling that ChatGPT by training on online discussions hasn’t learned to say “I don’t know”.
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