Given that the primary author is OpenAI affiliated and some of the assumptions are far fetched (e.g., on programming - not even coding) this reads like a sponsored post pamphlet to me.
GPTs Are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of LLMs
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Re: GPTs Are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of LLMs
#12Given that the primary author is OpenAI affiliated and some of the assumptions are far fetched (e.g., on programming - not even coding) this reads like a sponsored post pamphlet to me.
I already decided I've to read it at a time that isn't Monday early morning. It wasn't immediately obvious to me what their conclusions are exactly.
I am not dismissing it out of hand (that would be bad science) but a critical look is certainly appropriate.
My gut feeling is that the full impact on the real world cannot yet be accurately judged.
Re: GPTs Are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of LLMs
#13> Our findings indicate that the importance of science and critical thinking skills are strongly negatively associated with exposure, suggesting that occupations requiring these skills are less likely to be impacted by current language models. Conversely, programming and writing skills show a strong positive association with exposure, implying that occupations involving these skills are more susceptible to being infl…
Programming skills that do not need critical thinking are more susceptible of being influenced indeed.
Don't forget that a lot of science requires computer programming these days.
This is the root of it: The more "genericc" your work is. The more its "out there on the internet" the more GPT can learn about it..
So, a lot of engineers that are just doign teh same old trick: Writing HTTP endpoints, parsing json. Mapping data types.. Yes that could be automated.
However, modelling a problem domain to code, and the core business logic of your code, which is where your "added value" comes from. And is mostly unique: Thats hard for GPT.
This is also why I try to convince engineering teams to optimize for maximum time spend on the core added value logic. The business logic layer. Not all the fluff around it, such as parsing, serialization, authenitcation, database connection.. These should be a constant cost C, once they setup you spend most of your time on the business logic.
When you see GPT program, its just repeating tricks to simple problem over and over again.. Its not really good yet
Re: GPTs Are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of LLMs
#14Honestly, I feel worse for checkout girls locally - people are more often replaced by improvements to low hanging fruit, and not the emergence of apparently incomprehensively profound.
The truth is that we're impressed by this because it's magic and we don't know how magic - but it still getting way more magic really fucking fast.
Right now it's still and idiot if you're not telling it what to do. Hypnotic babble.
(If you want to be scared or relieved feed it some time series stock data (if it's good it'll end up fighting itself, otherwise it's either stupid or a liar).)
There are some uses easy use cases for it - I really wouldn't mind a GPT bot replacing outsourced call centres.
Improvement of quality and an improvement in service, and no direct impact to the local economy.
Other than that, this all has the booming feel of every other damned tech buzz, can we just cool down on sensationalism and not try and imagine another multi-billion dollar sub-economy into existence?
We already did that with bitcoin, and now we're seeing the end of the magic trick; let's not do it again.
How about a calm objective and public analysis by under-excited experts before we start mining land that simply isn't there?
Re: GPTs Are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of LLMs
#15Re: GPTs Are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of LLMs
#16Earlier quoted context omitted.
Unfortunately, the great majority of these jobs are already being automated with basic robotics
How is that unfortunate?
We don't yet have UBI (and worse, countries are raising pension ages, which is the closest thing we currently have to a UBI) so everything everywhere being automated all at once is going to be messy.
Re: GPTs Are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of LLMs
#17> Our findings indicate that the importance of science and critical thinking skills are strongly negatively associated with exposure, suggesting that occupations requiring these skills are less likely to be impacted by current language models. Conversely, programming and writing skills show a strong positive association with exposure, implying that occupations involving these skills are more susceptible to being infl…
Programming is an umbrella term.
IMO, there are two types of programming work:
1. Specifying. You are working on getting all requirements, and laid out the specification of the expected behavior of a system.
2. Translating. Once the specification is a nailed down. It would be taken into the hands of translators and put into actual code.
Both involves critical thinking, but translators probably more susceptible to LLM's negative influence.
Also any programmers at one time plays both roles, so it is not about a particular person is going to be deemed useless, more like that part of programming work (translating), is discounted, not longer as valuable, for everyone.
Re: GPTs Are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of LLMs
#18> Our findings indicate that the importance of science and critical thinking skills are strongly negatively associated with exposure, suggesting that occupations requiring these skills are less likely to be impacted by current language models. Conversely, programming and writing skills show a strong positive association with exposure, implying that occupations involving these skills are more susceptible to being infl…
Programming skills that do not need critical thinking are more susceptible of being influenced indeed. Don't forget that a lot of science requires computer programming these days. This is the root of it: The more "genericc" your work is. The more its "out there on the internet" the more GPT can learn about it.. So, a lot of engineers that are just doign teh same old trick: Writing HTTP endpoints, parsing json. Mappin…
This makes sense. There’s also a huge corpus of text (training data) available on internet for the inherently repetitive or general tasks which is helpful for this systems.
But I wonder how do they go from this to mathematics using the same line of reasoning while we’ve seen that math is not LLMs’ strong suit.
Re: GPTs Are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of LLMs
#19With little kids I am increasingly conscious about how to best equip them for the world when they are adults. I think previous playbook will need to be redrafted.
'Resilience' and 'Critical Thinking' are two things I am thinking are key any others?
Re: GPTs Are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of LLMs
#20With little kids I am increasingly conscious about how to best equip them for the world when they are adults. I think previous playbook will need to be redrafted. 'Resilience' and 'Critical Thinking' are two things I am thinking are key any others?
Charm. Online dating is so rampant, people who have experience charming in person will have their pick.