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Credit Suisse’s $17B of Risky Bonds Are Now Worthless

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Re: Credit Suisse’s $17B of Risky Bonds Are Now Worthless

#41
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

issues are coming up mostly because of interest based economy and multitude of instruments built on top of it. IMHO, even if whole banking system will be replaced with bitcoin, interest based economy will be built on top of it and same instruments will be built with similar level of issues

The difference is that a central authority doesn’t control the size of the bitcoin supply. It wouldn’t be a utopia, it would only fix a certain class of problems we have today.

> a central authority doesn’t control the size of the bitcoin supply

What is the minimum number of natural persons required to fork Bitcoin to a larger supply? I’d wager it’s a number smaller than half of the Congress plus the President.

Re: Credit Suisse’s $17B of Risky Bonds Are Now Worthless

#42
post #22
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Using an ultra deflationary token like bitcoin as a global currency would literally be the most stupid thing that ever happened in human history. Basically people who held significant amounts of bitcoin from early on would become billionaires (if not trillionaires...) by having provided zero value to the economy. As awful and unfair what we have currently is it's still several magnitudes superior in almost any concei…

I don't have a side in the whole crypto vs fiat war but I do wonder why HN is so anti-crypto (maybe it's just classic position speak). Re the "people who held significant amounts of bitcoin from early on would become billionaires by having provided zero value" - isn't that true to people who held Google stock very early on? what was their value? Also, I would say inflationary token vs deflationary token is not clear…

The people who got on Google identified a company with a profitable idea and provided it funds to realize that idea.

I don’t love cryptocurrency stuff, I mean it is a bit environmentally wasteful and stupid, but lots of things are wasteful and stupid so it doesn’t give me some visceral negative reaction. I think the folks who really hate it here are just annoyed that there’s all this vaguely tech-flavored scammy behavior going on that, shows up on their favorite news sites (because it is vaguely techy), maybe gets promoted to them, etc etc.

Re: Credit Suisse’s $17B of Risky Bonds Are Now Worthless

#43
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Using an ultra deflationary token like bitcoin as a global currency would literally be the most stupid thing that ever happened in human history. Basically people who held significant amounts of bitcoin from early on would become billionaires (if not trillionaires...) by having provided zero value to the economy. As awful and unfair what we have currently is it's still several magnitudes superior in almost any concei…

Bitcoin is not deflationary. It just has a fixed supply. People who held bitcoin from early on supported the growth of bitcoin by holding up it's value through the wild gut-wrenching rollercoaster ride that it has gone through. They should be rewarded for the risk they're taking on, having invested significant amount of their net worth in the face of harsh criticism such as yours. Bitcoin and "crypto" are completely…

> Bitcoin is not deflationary. It just has a fixed supply.

Theoretically, yes, albeit with spherical cows in a vacuum models of how economies actually function.

Practically, keys get lost, so it's deflationary even if it totally replaced existing currency and everything else became steady state.

> They should be rewarded for the risk they're taking on, having invested significant amount of their net worth in the face of harsh criticism such as yours.

If "harsh criticism" was sufficient reason to deserve money, I'd still use my Twitter account to have angry conversations about things that don't matter.

Re: Credit Suisse’s $17B of Risky Bonds Are Now Worthless

#44
post #4

I was initially surprised about this because AT1 notes are supposed to rank higher than equity. It seems that almost no one saw this coming (CS AT1 bonds traded higher this weekend before the write-down announcement), and traders presumed that bondholders should be made whole if equity holders get something. However then I looked at the information memorandum of these AT1 bonds (e.g. https://www.credit-suisse.com/med…

Between this and Janet Yellen's shaky answer to the Senate regarding deposit flight from community banks on Thursday, I think regulators are prolonging this crisis. Each solution seems designed to address the localized problem but does not consider systemic effects. 1: With this weekends actions in Europe, how will the AT1 bond market react tomorrow? 2: With Yellen's uninspiring answer on Thursday regarding deposits…

Yellen really fumbled the answer and she should have had some slick thing prepared but at the end of the day it isn’t the answer that was the problem. It was that the apparently no one thought through the second order consequences of the SVB depositor bailout. This even though the explicit legal requirement was that the government actors determine it was necessary to prevent systemic risks to the financial system.

Re: Credit Suisse’s $17B of Risky Bonds Are Now Worthless

#45
post #24

So did CS officially fail now?

Yes, it is now the 5th failed bank in the last week.

I wonder how Deutsche is now feeling.

For all its past mishaps I never would have imagined CS actually going down, or being allowed to go down in such a manner. The same discourse was being applied to Deutsche as recently as last year, if I'm not mistaken, hence my curiosity.

Re: Credit Suisse’s $17B of Risky Bonds Are Now Worthless

#46
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Using an ultra deflationary token like bitcoin as a global currency would literally be the most stupid thing that ever happened in human history. Basically people who held significant amounts of bitcoin from early on would become billionaires (if not trillionaires...) by having provided zero value to the economy. As awful and unfair what we have currently is it's still several magnitudes superior in almost any concei…

Bitcoin is not deflationary. It just has a fixed supply. People who held bitcoin from early on supported the growth of bitcoin by holding up it's value through the wild gut-wrenching rollercoaster ride that it has gone through. They should be rewarded for the risk they're taking on, having invested significant amount of their net worth in the face of harsh criticism such as yours. Bitcoin and "crypto" are completely…

To nitpick, Bitcoin doesn’t currently have a fixed supply. It has a supply cap that takes effect sometime in 2140. Bitcoin currently inflates by 6.25 BTC every ~10 minutes.

For the record, I agree that early Bitcoiners took an incredible risk on a highly volatile asset and they should be rewarded for such.

As I see it, this latest banking crisis is showing the world that there is more than one type of risk. Bitcoin has market risk but not counter-party risk.

As for bank deposits, while they have minimal market risk, they have significant counter-party risk.

The world is waking up to the fact that bank deposits are an unsecured loan to a risky counter-party that uses those deposits for highly leveraged speculative bets.

Re: Credit Suisse’s $17B of Risky Bonds Are Now Worthless

#47
post #12

And they wonder why we want to replace the traditional banking system. Here’s a hint: it’s not got anything to do with either “metaverse” bs nor with silly “NFT” JPEGs. Read the original Bitcoin whitepaper. https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf

Using an ultra deflationary token like bitcoin as a global currency would literally be the most stupid thing that ever happened in human history. Basically people who held significant amounts of bitcoin from early on would become billionaires (if not trillionaires...) by having provided zero value to the economy. As awful and unfair what we have currently is it's still several magnitudes superior in almost any concei…

We’d effectively be replacing a shit system with an even worse one.

We really need to crack down on amassing wealth.

Re: Credit Suisse’s $17B of Risky Bonds Are Now Worthless

#48

And they wonder why we want to replace the traditional banking system. Here’s a hint: it’s not got anything to do with either “metaverse” bs nor with silly “NFT” JPEGs. Read the original Bitcoin whitepaper. https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf

The competing system is BRICS + Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iran, Turkey and Pakistan. They will probably transact in gold - certainly not bitcoin. In the West, if there is a collapse of our system, they will make bitcoin illegal. I just don't see it as anything other than a short term speculation.

In the West, if there is a risk of collapse, it will be illegal to take your money out.

Re: Credit Suisse’s $17B of Risky Bonds Are Now Worthless

#49
post #23
post #4

I was initially surprised about this because AT1 notes are supposed to rank higher than equity. It seems that almost no one saw this coming (CS AT1 bonds traded higher this weekend before the write-down announcement), and traders presumed that bondholders should be made whole if equity holders get something. However then I looked at the information memorandum of these AT1 bonds (e.g. https://www.credit-suisse.com/med…

Except that the CET1 is above 14%. I think what happened wasn't related the coco trigger but a bailin, i.e. the regulator forcing losses on bond holders to create equity. So the terms of the coco feature aren't really relevant.

Upon further reading I found that the Viability Event (which is also a Write-down Event) is probably the applicable one in this case:

> (b) customary measures to improve CSG’s capital adequacy being at the time inadequate or unfeasible, CSG has received an irrevocable commitment of extraordinary support from the Public Sector (beyond customary transactions and arrangements in the ordinary course) that has, or imminently will have, the effect of improving CSG’s capital adequacy and without which, in the determination of the Regulator, CSG would have become insolvent, bankrupt, unable to pay a material part of its debts as they fall due or unable to carry on its business.

Clearly this deal required non-customary, extraordinary support from the Public Sector, so if the regulator determines that without such a transaction CSG would have liquidity issues, then this event would occur.

However I think my point stands that the terms of these CS AT1 notes should be understood as materially different from similar securities. For example, this note from ING (https://www.ing.com/MediaEditPage/XS2122174415-ING-Groep-N.V...) has a single Trigger Event that will cause mandatory conversion into ordinary shares, and a more general provision for Statutory Loss Absorption which may be a conversion or a write-down. The terms of CS AT1 notes do not seem to provide for any automatic or discretionary conversion, only automatic write-down.

I completely agree that in situations like this, the regulators have a lot of discretion on these bail-in securities, but I consider this "automatic permanent write-down" feature to be of a materially higher risk than "automatic mandatory conversion" variant because it could be a difference between getting back something (or everything) vs nothing. What the regulators do are, by definition, not "automatic", and an automatic write-down should be a much lower hurdle than an explicit regulatory action.

Re: Credit Suisse’s $17B of Risky Bonds Are Now Worthless

#50
post #22
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Using an ultra deflationary token like bitcoin as a global currency would literally be the most stupid thing that ever happened in human history. Basically people who held significant amounts of bitcoin from early on would become billionaires (if not trillionaires...) by having provided zero value to the economy. As awful and unfair what we have currently is it's still several magnitudes superior in almost any concei…

I don't have a side in the whole crypto vs fiat war but I do wonder why HN is so anti-crypto (maybe it's just classic position speak). Re the "people who held significant amounts of bitcoin from early on would become billionaires by having provided zero value" - isn't that true to people who held Google stock very early on? what was their value? Also, I would say inflationary token vs deflationary token is not clear…

> isn't that true to people who held Google stock very early on? what was their value?

In theory, early investors allow Google to actually have the cash needed to make the products and services that brought in the real revenue.

An ex of mine would totally agree with you though.

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