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Leaving China

persuasion.community

11–20 of 686 posts

Re: Leaving China

#12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The world will adapt when labor becomes scarce, it will have no other choice. The more scarce labor is, the more pricing power it has. Arguing over “what if AGI” is like arguing about nuclear war and winter. It might happen, but no plans you form for it will survive contact with reality, so there is very little value in spending cycles on optimizing for it.

I have a cynical view (sorry) that labor will always be cheap somewhere. It's part of the globalization machine, there will always be a decline somewhere, and if there isn't, one will be created.

This view seems inconsistent. Artificial manipulation is not sustainable in the long term. The ability to continually create conditions that lead to cheap labor is limited and will eventually fail.

Re: Leaving China

#13
It's so interesting to read this perspective since it drives home "the grass is always greener.." for me. I've lived a pretty charmed life in the US for the past few years (like the majority of HN, I imagine) but I find myself longing to move to a country with dense cities, affordable housing in the city center, great public infrastructure and a modicum of agreement among the citizens and China fits the bill pretty great for me. I understand that it might come at the cost of some personal freedom but I'm willing to pay that price for a great society in return. But reading this makes me think this is part of "the human condition" - the more time we spend in a bubble in a place, the more we either become blind to it's shortcomings or become overly rosy about a foreign place that would solve all our problems.

As a sidenote, the author says he does not like his kids playing "war" in Chinese playgrounds - I wonder how he will feel about the active shooter drills that are now part of every kids life in the US.

Note: I'm not Chinese.

Re: Leaving China

#14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The world will adapt when labor becomes scarce, it will have no other choice. The more scarce labor is, the more pricing power it has. Arguing over “what if AGI” is like arguing about nuclear war and winter. It might happen, but no plans you form for it will survive contact with reality, so there is very little value in spending cycles on optimizing for it.

I have a cynical view (sorry) that labor will always be cheap somewhere. It's part of the globalization machine, there will always be a decline somewhere, and if there isn't, one will be created.

I’m not sure it’s globalization. There will always be rich countries and poorer countries. Like there will always be poor people and rich people. The gap may and should shrink between the two but not vanish.

Re: Leaving China

#15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The world will adapt when labor becomes scarce, it will have no other choice. The more scarce labor is, the more pricing power it has. Arguing over “what if AGI” is like arguing about nuclear war and winter. It might happen, but no plans you form for it will survive contact with reality, so there is very little value in spending cycles on optimizing for it.

I have a cynical view (sorry) that labor will always be cheap somewhere. It's part of the globalization machine, there will always be a decline somewhere, and if there isn't, one will be created.

China's Belt and Road Initiative suggests that they view the under-developed Middle East and African nations to be the next in line, the same as the US viewed China as a source of cheap labour.

The party has been making deep investments into the regions and is developing significant political and social capital at the same time that the West is retreating from them, cutting foreign aid, etc.

Re: Leaving China

#16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have a cynical view (sorry) that labor will always be cheap somewhere. It's part of the globalization machine, there will always be a decline somewhere, and if there isn't, one will be created.

This view seems inconsistent. Artificial manipulation is not sustainable in the long term. The ability to continually create conditions that lead to cheap labor is limited and will eventually fail.

With AI+capital on the manipulating side I am not sure there are any limits.

Re: Leaving China

#17
post #13

It's so interesting to read this perspective since it drives home "the grass is always greener.." for me. I've lived a pretty charmed life in the US for the past few years (like the majority of HN, I imagine) but I find myself longing to move to a country with dense cities, affordable housing in the city center, great public infrastructure and a modicum of agreement among the citizens and China fits the bill pretty g…

This hits home for me a lot. I've lived in Spain, Argentina and Finland, all in hoping to fill whatever gap I thought it would, whether that would be life quality, weather, culture or whatever. But after the honeymoon period, the cracks started to show at every place. I'm now back in my home country, Estonia, which I (now) think is the best for me - but that creeping feeling of something better being somewhere out there is hard to shake, and still with me, even as I try to not think about that.

Re: Leaving China

#18

Can other expats who has since left, or have decided to stay, share their experience as well?

I've been working in, and out of South China since 2009, and have called it quit 2019, when it became clear the industry was done for, and CoVID mess only reinforced my decision.

I never held any fraternal feelings with the country, even though I am ethnic Chinese, nor I had any delusions about making long term plans there.

In my years there, I kept seeing rose coloured glasses wearing American expats. I met Tim Cook during his first travels to China as CEO at some random event in Shenzhen, only to see him regurgitate the official drivel.

Since around 2016, I kept seeing more and more Western high flyers coming to official events there, seemingly trying to network with locals, and only to see them freak out at that.

My regular conversation with them:

- it's a damn communist regime, do your business and get out

- no, it's different! there is no more communisms in China! no, it's state capitalism! no, things will change! no, I have a special plan from EY China expert!

Most of them lived there for 2-3 years, and got out just as I told when the truth hit them. In the end, I outlived all of them there.

China is a communist regime, though a very well doing for some years.

Re: Leaving China

#19

What I find ironic is that as businesses leave China, they move into the exact same type of culture in Vietnam and India. Vietnam is basically a mini China and India is trending towards the same authoritarian regime that most people find distasteful. The entire western world is so addicted to cheap labor I don't know what would happen when there is no more cheap labor to be found. There will be a huge social disrupti…

indeed. vietnam is run by the communist party of vietnam. remember, they won the war. that's why there is no south vietnam and north vietnam anymore (unlike korea). there is no free speech. there is no rule of law. there is no free market.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communist_Party_of_Vietnam

i wonder how long it will take before we start hearing "i hate the VCP but i love vietnamese people/culture". probably when they get powerful enough to challenge the regional US interest in anything significant.

Re: Leaving China

#20
post #3

Why do we call people expats and not rich migrants or something like that?

There's a legal distinction. At least in America.

An immigrant has an intent to settle, an expat doesn't. In America, one could theoretically lose work authorization should he refer or present himself as an immigrant.

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