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Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

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Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#341

Post by j7ake »

ChrisMarshallNY wrote: post #259
carlmr wrote: post #29

Looking back we had one CS professor who in 2007 predicted we'd all be jobless in ten years, i.e. 2017. His prediction was based on the trends he was seeing at the time. But it wasn't even AI. Instead he made this prediction because he saw the rise of no-code tools replacing software developers because managers could finally cut out the pesky "translators", i.e. software developers. I said it then and I will say it n…

> So exact in fact that they will need to specify a program in a click and drag interface, or in human language. This. I started programming in Machine Code, where the "editor" was a pad of graph paper. I've watched management- and business-focused people sneer at us geeks for my entire career, and watched them drool over the thought of finally getting rid of us. Hasn't happened yet. > I'd be surprised if the next st…

This hits deep and resonates beyond tech. This “ideas” versus “make things happen” divide is also prevalent in science and art.

Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#342

Post by homarp »

pzo wrote: post #84
banyaaa wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I doubt AI will replace any job in my lifetime (got 40-50 years left). Progress will grind to a halt just like self driving cars did because the real world is just too chaotic and 'random' to be captured by a formula/equation/algorithm. My prediction is: AGI is theoretically possible, but would require impractical amounts of computing power - kinda like how intergalactic travel will never happen.

We don’t AGI for LLM to be useful. And regrading comparison with self driving car they are still improving just the bar for them is much higher. If autopilot works 99.9% if time then 1 out of 1000 drivers will die - so technology has to be even better. for LLM is enough if it’s 90% good to be broadly useful.

unless you want the LLM to write the firmware of the self-driving car.

Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#343

Post by z7 »

Radim wrote: post #216

Yes, human economy is about the exchange of value between humans – a cheap tautology from Carmack. Money is indeed irrelevant to a snail, as opposed to a would-be SW engineer. But Nature is about making better use of energy gradients, always doing more with less, the principle of least action. Using any surplus to do it again (i.e. evolved life). That's the properly grounded perspective. In that sense "Get skills to…

Interesting critical response currently buried at the bottom of page 2. Doesn't surprise me really. Frankly this thread is an embarrassment. And not because of whatever someone's conclusion is but because of a noted lack of critical reasoning in this case.

Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#344

Post by pzo »

AshamedCaptain wrote: post #251
pzo wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We don’t AGI for LLM to be useful. And regrading comparison with self driving car they are still improving just the bar for them is much higher. If autopilot works 99.9% if time then 1 out of 1000 drivers will die - so technology has to be even better. for LLM is enough if it’s 90% good to be broadly useful.

Not to "replace programmers", though. For the same reason you can't replace drivers even though they also make mistakes.

It’s not about replacing all programmers. If one programmer with AI assistant can do work the same as 2 programmers then one position is redundant.

Even with self driving truck if one truck driver is leading another truck behind controlled by AI, and just for safety you have somewhere C&C center with one person monitoring 4 such ai trucks and in case unexpected event remotely take over control then one truck driver position is redundant.

Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#345

Post by Yoric »

8organicbits wrote: post #139
Yoric wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with the general idea. However, retraining may become really hard. Especially if you're already, say, a 60 year old programmer (or business analyst, or executive assistant, etc.) who suddenly needs to become a (AI assisted) teacher or nurse.

Wouldn't most of those people look towards early retirement? We've failed as a society if 60 year olds end their career in one of the highest paying professions and they cant cover rent and food.

I know a few people who are a bit younger (maybe 55?) and who, after a career in high impact jobs, found themselves without any possible position. I know that they're not nearly ready to retire. I don't know about how much savings they have.

In these cases, that's entirely independent from AI, but I suspect that AI will only make it harder.

And yes, it feels to me like society is failing for many people who are approaching retirement age.

Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#346

Post by jeffreygoesto »

carlmr wrote: post #29

Looking back we had one CS professor who in 2007 predicted we'd all be jobless in ten years, i.e. 2017. His prediction was based on the trends he was seeing at the time. But it wasn't even AI. Instead he made this prediction because he saw the rise of no-code tools replacing software developers because managers could finally cut out the pesky "translators", i.e. software developers. I said it then and I will say it n…

My theory is that _every_ exponential curve is just the start of an S-curve, we just don't know it's scale yet.

Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#347

Post by orsenthil »

acatnamedjoe wrote: post #99
MarkusWandel wrote: post #67

The computers are coming for jobs ever up the white collar scale. When I started working there were (barely) still secretaries who typed and filed things for their bosses, and quite a few geeks had jobs that involved assembly language programming. AI will take jobs. Super frustratingly, it'll probably make call centers even more useless (has anyone ever gotten anything useful out of one of those ("Hi, I'm ____. Can I…

I see the plumber/electrician thing a lot. But talking to my friends who do these jobs it always seems like it would be even more vulnerable to AI than programming. Experienced electricians get paid decent wages because they have had lots of training and then have seen loads of different problems. So they intuitively know things like 'This is a 1960s house so if there's a problem with the lighting the first thing I s…

> I reckon the safest jobs are ones

The safest jobs are ones that honest to self for the doer. He/She will be able to create value either using other humans, or machines and continue to do.

Sorry, I wanted to try "safest jobs are ones that involve politics", while those will always be present, it is not the safest and wont be many available, so changed to more abstract answer.

Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#349

Post by Yoric »

sokoloff wrote: post #132
Yoric wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There will always be need for top tier leetcoders. but barrier to entry will get much higher. That's definitely a possibility. The barrier to entry won't be just in terms of how much you need to know, though, but also the fact that society as a whole might not require that many top tier leetcoders.

There will be an effectively endless demand for anyone who can create 10x the value while only demanding 3x the pay of the typical worker. I don’t see AI changing that principle. Most everyone who is “good at programming” today will be totally fine (and maybe even better off ).

> There will be an effectively endless demand for anyone who can create 10x the value while only demanding 3x the pay of the typical worker.

That's one possible future.

Another future is one in which a single AI assisted "full tech developer" can solve all the coding problems of a company within say, one week. No company will require the services of an entire "full tech developer", so society will employ roughly one freelancer / consultant per ~30 large enough companies.

That's a smaller market than today's.

Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#350

Post by eldritch_4ier »

carlmr wrote: post #29

Looking back we had one CS professor who in 2007 predicted we'd all be jobless in ten years, i.e. 2017. His prediction was based on the trends he was seeing at the time. But it wasn't even AI. Instead he made this prediction because he saw the rise of no-code tools replacing software developers because managers could finally cut out the pesky "translators", i.e. software developers. I said it then and I will say it n…

All points the horses made before cars all but replaced them. “The humans need to get from A to B and it’s not like they’ve gotten any faster with their own 2 legs”.

How does this manager-engineer look like now? Managers specify what they need in plain language, and both parties go back and forth with increasing complexity to create based on the shared vision. Managers can already pull off a similar dance with ChatGPT: give it a plain English prompt, it’s responds with what it thinks you want, and you refine until it’s got it. GPT4 can do this with website sketches, and who knows how much finer you could get from there by specifying your prompts and feedback more tightly over less than an hour. Remember: copywriters and brand marketers and marketing creative makers have a similar role of turning complex requirements into designs that sell (and their roles are dying fast).

A software engineers job is to realize products into software. ChatGPT is pretty much as capable as a high school programmer that moves really quickly and takes feedback to heart - and that can handle a good chunk of the software engineering job for a huge fraction of the price. Your job isn’t as bulletproof as you think, and especially not your amazing salary. I’m speaking as a software engineer turned vc backed founder, so I’ve seen both sides of this relationship.

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