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Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

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Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#91
post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The advice isn’t about coding vs managing. What John is saying is to deeply understand why you’re building something, so that you can build it better. If you over focus on the what — the implementation, the language, the approach — you won’t be as good, and your work may be increasingly replaced by AI.

I agree but I think I’d call it the “how” rather than the “what”. You might mean “what tool”, but I also think of “what feature”.

EDIT: Was the comment edited, or did my brain miss something? I think I perceived something else there when I wrote my response.

It's still "how". Only on a higher level. For example, instead of placing the form elements exactly and designing them you describe data flow and meta info about the data to be gathered via the form, and how it looks and where elements are placed on various screens happens automatically.

Writing code in a higher level vs. assembler still is coding, but you worry about very different things. Just compared with assembler, since looking back is easier than looking forward. Instead of worrying about (the few) registers and interrupts and in which RAM cells you place what you now think about very different things. It still is programming though, and you still tell the machine "how". Only on a different level.

When you lead a large company instead of working with a machine on the factory floor the work is very different, you still need precision and know "how", only on a different level. Even if you have "underlings" who can think, and you can let them execute the sub tasks you create, you still have to know what you are doing, only on a higher level.

Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#92
post #70

An average programmer's main job is to track down and fix bugs that shouldn't exist inside software that shouldn't exist build on frameworks that shouldn't exist for companies that shouldn't exist solving problems that shouldn't exist in industry niches that shouldn't exist. I'm 100% convinced that, if someone comes along and creates something that actually obsoletes 95% of programming jobs, everyone would very quick…

It’s pretty true, someone today on here wrote, “teach it to understand swagger”, I actually laughed, like I’ve used swagger and it often turns into a Frankenstein, and sometimes for good reason. I completely understand the sentiment and I like swagger. I believe the world is wiggly, not geometrically perfect, intellectuals struggle with that because square problems are easier to solve. Ideal scenarios are predictable…

> Ask a construction worker about them.

Hah. So true. The more I work on renovating parts of my house the more I see where a workers experience kicked in the finagle something. Very analogous to programming. All the parts that fit together perfectly are already easy today. It’s those bits that aren’t square, but also need to fit where the ‘art’ comes in.

Can AI also do that part? IDK, currently I believe it will simply help us do the art part much like the computer in Star Trek.

Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#94
post #10

What’s left unsaid: many programmers can’t or don’t want to “accomplish something for people”. They just want to code. Such “automation is not a problem, because…” opinions have something in common: they’re looking at a subset of the affected population which has some trait making the transition easier. Personally I’ve tried my hand at roles like architect, product owner, scrum master, etc and I was involved in most…

The purpose of software companies is to earn money not to give jobs to people who "want to code".

Lots of people learned how to make games for NES, SNES, PS2, PS3, etc.

All those machines are now obsolete.

Current gen consoles are using x86 and ARM now and most upcoming AAA games are built on Unreal Engine. The competitive advantage of those who mastered coding for the Cell processor is gone.

What should SONY have done instead? Should they still use the PS3 architecture in the current gen consoles to keep those developers employed?

Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#95

Just avoid careers in software development. These are not high paying, if you factor in total time invested and spent working; and you have to waste your life away sitting in an office chasing tickets. Nothing engineery about it. It’s modern day assembly line work.

Here on HN everybody thinks they are going to be paid half a million a year.

Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#96
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This person is asking about career prospects 10-15 years out though. I'm sorry, but the landscape in then might be as alien to someone asking today, as todays would have been to someone asking 15 years ago (2008). What John said is correct, but personally I think he's underplaying how much people could be affected. Those "product skills" take years of grinding to really sharpen, and in 15 years only a few people migh…

You have plenty of time and can learn CS and earn a lot of money for years even if at exactly 120 months from now your job is made obsolete. It doesn't take 9 years to learn to code. The premise of all this seems to be that learning how to program computers is difficult or complex. It is not. Also, AI will not replace human reasoning in 10-15 years. If it does, it means AGI, and we all have much bigger problems than…

> It doesn't take 9 years to learn to code.

True. But I guess the big question is what kind of skills you're going to need after that.

Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#97
post #29

Looking back we had one CS professor who in 2007 predicted we'd all be jobless in ten years, i.e. 2017. His prediction was based on the trends he was seeing at the time. But it wasn't even AI. Instead he made this prediction because he saw the rise of no-code tools replacing software developers because managers could finally cut out the pesky "translators", i.e. software developers. I said it then and I will say it n…

Doesn't this assume that the no-code tools won't be smart enough to understand the most probably correct course of action, and to look up information automatically and to ask questions to resolve ambiguities, like what a programmer does?

Possibly. But things have a way of not working as intended. A good chunk of my time as a programmer is spent dealing with things that don't work the way I thought they would, especially at the threshold between APIs and layers of indirection. Deeply understanding a complex system to deal with problems like that seems somewhat far out of reach for LLMs from what I see today.

But that's me looking into my crystal ball, nobody can say what will or will not be possible in a given time frame. But I chose to not worry about it - new developments will probably be accompanied with new opportunities, which I can jump on even if I didn't predict them ten years before.

Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#98
post #29

Looking back we had one CS professor who in 2007 predicted we'd all be jobless in ten years, i.e. 2017. His prediction was based on the trends he was seeing at the time. But it wasn't even AI. Instead he made this prediction because he saw the rise of no-code tools replacing software developers because managers could finally cut out the pesky "translators", i.e. software developers. I said it then and I will say it n…

Totally agree, maybe we should replace lower and middle management with AI. What i usually find is that lower and middle management is the reason shit isn't getting done. They are the messenger that don't want to get shot but want to get promoted.

Why not let the people on the floor complain to a AI manager, the people on the floor know exactly what is killing their productivity. Like "yo ai manager, manually filling in those data field is taking quiet some time to check someones credit score is it possible the IT department can automate that process it might save 2 min a form" then AI manager can prioritise stuff like this.

Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#99

The computers are coming for jobs ever up the white collar scale. When I started working there were (barely) still secretaries who typed and filed things for their bosses, and quite a few geeks had jobs that involved assembly language programming. AI will take jobs. Super frustratingly, it'll probably make call centers even more useless (has anyone ever gotten anything useful out of one of those ("Hi, I'm ____. Can I…

I see the plumber/electrician thing a lot.

But talking to my friends who do these jobs it always seems like it would be even more vulnerable to AI than programming.

Experienced electricians get paid decent wages because they have had lots of training and then have seen loads of different problems. So they intuitively know things like 'This is a 1960s house so if there's a problem with the lighting the first thing I should check is the fuse box connector, it should look like xyz, etc. Etc.'. This seems like exactly the sort of thing an LLM could do for them.

I think you could easily see a world where an electrician is someone on minimum wage with very minimal training who blindly connects wires as instructed by an AI.

I reckon the safest jobs are ones with limited reliance on knowledge and a very high level of physical skill (in environments where it's hard to get machines to operate). Bricklayers, plasterers and painter/decorators will be the big earners of the 2050s!

Re: Build full “product skills” and you'll probably be fine

#100
post #46

I love to code, as much as I loved math in college, but coding paid better and I'm pretty good at it. Those were my choices though b/c I want to do something I love. Sure, I keep my eye on the "Delivered Value" by making sure I engineer solutions to real problems, but I've never wanted to move out of coding and into managing engineers to build stuff. I want to code. It seems to me that the advice given here would be…

It's like telling a musician to become a DJ because the point of performing is to entertain people. It's not wrong, but it's also not applicable to all people who enjoy performing an instrument.

Sure, but in the time of DJs and hell, Spotify, you probably can’t expect to make a decent living as a live musician.
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