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Community’s 25yrs without a newborn shows scale of Japan’s population crisis

cnn.com

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Re: Community’s 25yrs without a newborn shows scale of Japan’s population crisis

#61

Post by ekianjo »

jalapenos wrote: post #54
ar9av wrote: post #42

For anyone asking why this is a problem, our social system is setup that the younger working generations help the elderly and retired. Ideally you want a generational pyramid to sustain retirement and insurance funds, with the youngest being the base. However if the pyramid gets flipped where you have way more elderly and retired who need to be sustained financially and need care the system starts to collapse. What e…

One thing that I think would help (and is probably already helping) is remote work. The ability to cut out commutes and move out to cheaper places and bigger homes that are aligned with child raising is a huge help, as well as improving many people's lives generally. The government should really be leaning hard into this, and attacking meeting culture (especially in-person meetings) head-on.

governments are run by people who like to go and meet in offices all year long.

Re: Community’s 25yrs without a newborn shows scale of Japan’s population crisis

#62

Post by ekianjo »

admissionsguy wrote: post #10

How unhinged is it to call the lack of exponential population growth a crisis? There are enough (way too many in fact) people already. The social and economic mechanisms just have to adapt to the steady-state or even decreasing population levels. We should be grateful it is happening spontaneously, instead of having to think of instituting invasive policies to limit growth.

> How unhinged is it to call the lack of exponential population growth a crisis?

Strawman. We are merely talking about not dropping to zero too fast

Re: Community’s 25yrs without a newborn shows scale of Japan’s population crisis

#63

Post by anovikov »

Turskarama wrote: post #35
anovikov wrote: post #2

Why not bring in many immigrant women and have them bear Japanese children through IVF as surrogates, with eggs and sperm selected randomly from a collection of healthy, successful Japanese donors? And then pay for their upbringing in government-sponsored facilities. Because there is usually more than 1 kid born through IVF, say 1.5, and about 65% of IVFs result in a life birth with usual miscarriage terms being very…

This is showing a clear misunderstanding of the cause of these low birth rates. If IVF and government run child raising facilities was a real option then they wouldn't need immigrants to do it. Japanese women are not having babies because they don't want to, not because they physically can't. The crisis the rich world is having is that it is no longer possible to raise a family with only a single working adult, and r…

It has nothing to do with "crisis in Western societies". It happens everywhere, including in countries that saw a super massive, skyrocketing (10x+ in one generation) increase of median effective incomes. Simply called a "demographic transition": people are not having kids because they can avoid it (contraception) and because there are no social or economic forces coercing them to have kids. Kids can only meaningfully contribute to income once they finish college not at the age of 6 as before when they could start working in the field, there is a decline of influence or religion that used to force people to procreate, and finally, government pension systems, not grown-up kids, fund people in their old age. This is well-researched, started a long time ago, and doesn't need any "negative" economic explanations. Childbirth is in decline because economy gets better, not worse.

Chinese per capita income increased 8.76x between 1978 (last year before one-child policy) and 2019, when (since 2016) two babies were allowed for everyone (so few people want a 3rd one it barely bears any significance anymore). Birth rate has decreased from 2.72 to 1.5 - from far above acceptable maximum to well, far below acceptable minimum. It's absurd to compare living standards in China in 1978 and in 2019. These were two completely different countries - West didn't see so much progress in maybe 200+ years. And yet, birth rate fell. One can quote authoritarianism - but well, China was even more authoritarian in 1978. That same thing is true everywhere - there isn't a single country where birth rates were on the rise, while living standards are improving at a good rate in most of the world.

Re: Community’s 25yrs without a newborn shows scale of Japan’s population crisis

#64

Post by rich_sasha »

jalapenos wrote: post #47

It's amusing that Japan has become singled out on this, like some kind of a trope, when it's not even at the bottom. Last I heard HK has a fertility rate of 0.7. There is no crisis. There's problems, but not to the level that a mainstream western rag wants to make out. There's a known migratory pattern that once people retire, they don't need to be commuting to an office anymore, and so they move out far from the cit…

It's not about population size, it's about number of working hands to mouths to feed, basically. In a decreasing, ageing population, this fraction becomes rapidly very unattractive.

Re: Community’s 25yrs without a newborn shows scale of Japan’s population crisis

#65

Post by ekianjo »

anovikov wrote: post #4
2Gkashmiri wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

why not pay to bring immigrants who can start their families without caring much about making them to bear japanese children in the first place? that sounds like you want human ovens because your own machines are outdated. That is..... uh... bad lets say i am given incentive to move to japan and start a family there, i would contribute to the workforce, the children would be "japanese" anyway because they would be bo…

Japanese don't want non-Japanese (non-Yamato) people in there. Even 1/4 non-Yamato people face discrimination, and half-Japanese essentially have sub-human status. Even if the other half comes from richest and most civilised countries on Earth. Also seriously, no foreigners understand Japan. I don't think this is a country someone from the outside can really integrate there.

> Japanese don't want non-Japanese (non-Yamato) people in there

Blanket statements are not very helpful. There are certainly people who are against immigration but there is also a large number of people who are not against it as long as it's "controlled". Nobody want open borders with no control, unless you are completely out of your mind.

> I don't think this is a country someone from the outside can really integrate there.

Many foreigners have had no problems living and loving living in Japan for centuries by now.

Re: Community’s 25yrs without a newborn shows scale of Japan’s population crisis

#66

Post by zarzavat »

throwawaymaths wrote: post #6
anovikov wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Japanese don't want non-Japanese (non-Yamato) people in there. Even 1/4 non-Yamato people face discrimination, and half-Japanese essentially have sub-human status. Even if the other half comes from richest and most civilised countries on Earth. Also seriously, no foreigners understand Japan. I don't think this is a country someone from the outside can really integrate there.

The hell? Japan is no USA or Canada but the discrimination isn't that bad , it's pretty on par with the rest of east Asia except maybe Singapore and certainly better than China.

East Asia is a big place. Taiwan definitely treats its foreigners and ethnic minorities a lot better than Japan.

On the other hand, China has concentration camps for its ethnic minorities. Yes Japan doesn’t have concentration camps for Ainu, so I guess they’re doing OK?

Re: Community’s 25yrs without a newborn shows scale of Japan’s population crisis

#67

Post by JumpCrisscross »

admissionsguy wrote: post #55
ar9av wrote: post #42

For anyone asking why this is a problem, our social system is setup that the younger working generations help the elderly and retired. Ideally you want a generational pyramid to sustain retirement and insurance funds, with the youngest being the base. However if the pyramid gets flipped where you have way more elderly and retired who need to be sustained financially and need care the system starts to collapse. What e…

> However if the pyramid gets flipped where you have way more elderly and retired who need to be sustained financially and need care the system starts to collapse. It is true that the system as currently set up does not cope with inverted population pyramid. Do you change the system or try to force the pyramid to re-invert? Why all the focus seems to be on the latter? Fundamentally, disregarding for a moment how fina…

> what % of working people does it take to support a population

This depends on the quality of life for the non-working.

Re: Community’s 25yrs without a newborn shows scale of Japan’s population crisis

#68

Post by Turskarama »

anovikov wrote: post #63
Turskarama wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is showing a clear misunderstanding of the cause of these low birth rates. If IVF and government run child raising facilities was a real option then they wouldn't need immigrants to do it. Japanese women are not having babies because they don't want to, not because they physically can't. The crisis the rich world is having is that it is no longer possible to raise a family with only a single working adult, and r…

It has nothing to do with "crisis in Western societies". It happens everywhere , including in countries that saw a super massive, skyrocketing (10x+ in one generation) increase of median effective incomes. Simply called a "demographic transition": people are not having kids because they can avoid it (contraception) and because there are no social or economic forces coercing them to have kids. Kids can only meaningful…

>It has nothing to do with "crisis in Western societies"

Yes, which is why I said RICH countries, not western countries. It would have been strange for me to focus on western countries, given that this thread is about Japan.

>and because there are no social or economic forces coercing them to have kids.

This is kind of implying that the primary reason people have children is for economic reasons, but in wealthy countries children have been more of an economic burden than benefit and yet most people still choose to have children, though usually just 1 or 2.

In fact, this research (https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2013/09/06/chart-of-th...) by the pew research center shows that within a single country (in this case the united states) birth rates are often inversely correlated with economic strength. It actually shows the birth rate increasing between 1940 and 1960, despite the fact that children were an economic burden that entire time.

I think the idea of higher income leading to lower birthrates only really applies to countries leaving deep poverty where it is common for children to work for an income. While women might not want to have 8 children, there are a lot of women who would like to have 3 or 4 children, enough to keep the birth rate at or above parity. Among that population, many won't have as many children as they want because they can't afford either the time or the cost of raising them.

Re: Community’s 25yrs without a newborn shows scale of Japan’s population crisis

#69

Post by fwlr »

et-al wrote: post #36
fwlr wrote: post #12

In times of crisis during war, countries may draft men into combat to fight against their will. If this fertility crisis keeps up, I wonder if we will see a similar kind of draft for women to breed. It seems unconscionable but literal existential risks can drive countries to do a lot of unconscionable things. (Immigration isn’t the answer, their fertility rate also gets depressed just like the native population. All…

What's up with all these responses about turning women into breeding machines when the basic issue is that it's difficult to provide a decent life for a child on a single income? How about we make it not a PITA to be a mother?

We have been trying to do that for a good two decades or so. The article mentions several programs Japan has implemented to try and make not a PITA to be a mother. Doubtless we will also continue to implement more of these programs as the problem gets worse.

You are seeing these “breeding machine” type posts because people are extrapolating from the current poor success rate of these programs and thinking about what more drastic steps might be taken. (Do note that I don’t approve of forcibly turning women into breeding machines, just like I don’t approve of forcibly turning men into killing machines. I did call it unconscionable.)

Re: Community’s 25yrs without a newborn shows scale of Japan’s population crisis

#70

Post by fwlr »

XorNot wrote: post #56
fwlr wrote: post #12

In times of crisis during war, countries may draft men into combat to fight against their will. If this fertility crisis keeps up, I wonder if we will see a similar kind of draft for women to breed. It seems unconscionable but literal existential risks can drive countries to do a lot of unconscionable things. (Immigration isn’t the answer, their fertility rate also gets depressed just like the native population. All…

Christ it doesn't take much for people to go mask off on "start up the government rape squads".

Buddy, don’t get it twisted, I’m just as worried as you are about this possibility. (“Unconscionable” means “not right or reasonable; unreasonably excessive”.)
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