Anyone else witnessing a panic inside NLP orgs of big tech companies? • Hacker News Board

Re: Anyone else witnessing a panic inside NLP orgs of big tech companies?

#491

Post by gregable » Fri, Mar 17, 2023, 5:18 PM UTC

WalterBright wrote: post #152

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #119

Wow - this is just wild. I've seen lots of arguments around "AI won't take everyone's job, it will just open up new areas for new jobs." Even if you take that with the benefit of the doubt (which I don't really think is warranted): 1. You don't need to take everyone's job. You just need to take a shitload of people's jobs. I think a lot of our current sociological problems, problems associated with wealth inequality,…

Think of people who have jobs like archaeology, digging up bones. The only way these jobs can exist is if technology has taken over much of the grunt work of production. As for human translators, the need for them far, far exceeds the number of them. Have you ever needed translation help? I sure have, but no human translator was available or was too expensive.

Jobs like archeology could probably also be automated further. Somewhat limiting this is possibly the fact that the "market size" for automation here is small.

Re: Anyone else witnessing a panic inside NLP orgs of big tech companies?

#492

Post by danaris » Fri, Mar 17, 2023, 5:29 PM UTC

avmich wrote: post #295

ChuckNorris89 wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Personal computing didn't automate too many things that only humans could previously do. Personal computer enabled you to move the data haystack from paper medium to digital but you still had to know the right SW incantations and meticulously dig through it to find the needle. ChatGPT and other ML apps can find you the needle in the data haystack. To look up stuff on the PC you still needed to know the location of yo…

The question was about the case "when these sorts of things happen". This is a generalization which assumes something analogous happened in the past. We're not talking narrowly about something which could "automate too many things that only humans could previously do", which we didn't have before ChatGPT, at least in such a short time. We're talking about similar, but not the same, things and PC revolution seems like…

I was talking specifically about "when this happens in such a way as to 'take down' people", not saying "any time automation happens, workers suffer".

Re: Anyone else witnessing a panic inside NLP orgs of big tech companies?

#493

Post by precompute » Fri, Mar 17, 2023, 5:51 PM UTC

org3 wrote: post #126

mashygpig wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Here's a new trend happening these days. Upon releasing new non-fiction books to the general public, authors are simultaneously offering an LLM-based chatbot box where you can ask the book any question. Can you link to an example?

https://portal.konjer.xyz/

How legal is something like this?

Re: Anyone else witnessing a panic inside NLP orgs of big tech companies?

#494

Post by Apocryphon » Fri, Mar 17, 2023, 6:10 PM UTC

izacus wrote: post #446

eggsmediumrare wrote: post #344

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your comment seems almost intentionally obtuse... How's them internet and smartphones doing the watershed world changing these days?

Well, we certanly didn't hit the "apppocalypse", iPads didn't fully replace desktop computing and phones haven't ended up equalizing wealth inequality. A lot of breathless BS that was spoken around those technologies didn't come to pass - they became tools. Great tools, but just tools that fit into our lives where it made sense. Same for the internet - things changed, but the breathless predictions that retails store…

There's certainly been sweeping social changes thanks to smartphones, but it's arguably not because of smartphones in of themselves, so much as mobile connectivity. In a world where we invented William Gibson-style cyberdecks or if netbooks became wildly popular, that would have happened as well.

Re: Anyone else witnessing a panic inside NLP orgs of big tech companies?

#495

Post by ChancyChance » Fri, Mar 17, 2023, 6:31 PM UTC

unmole wrote: post #429

ChancyChance wrote: post #268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there is a risk to the trades as well. Tradesman service prices are skyrocketing, too. With fewer people able to hire them because they cannot afford it, won't trade jobs fall as well?

> won't trade jobs fall as well? Why won't tradesman cut their prices?

I hope they would, but in my 40 years of owning homes, prices to have things done double every 7 years. This would mean 10% inflation year over year, but that isn't the case, and wood prices have not gone up that much. Everyone is just charging more because they can. I keep thinking: at some point homeowners won't be able to afford this, but I've been wrong for 4 decades and just keep writing the checks with firmly clenched buttocks every time I need a major repair.

Re: Anyone else witnessing a panic inside NLP orgs of big tech companies?

#496

Post by fingerlocks » Fri, Mar 17, 2023, 7:11 PM UTC

giardini wrote: post #483

fingerlocks wrote: post #434

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not OP, but I pay my barber $50 for a 15 minute haircut. Runs his “barbershop” out of his house, which he owns, in one of the most desirable neighborhoods in Seattle. There’s always another appointment lined up before and after mine, so I guess he’s pulling 6 figures without much sweat.

" ...I pay my barber $50 for a 15 minute haircut... " Bet you can get the same for less than $20 within 3 miles (and possibly far less). I paid $10 for my last haircut ($6 two months ago - thank you, Joe Biden). Luckily there's another shop nearby that still charges $5.

Probably, but my barber is awesome. Older now, but he was once very prolific and well known in the music & arts scene. He’s an excellent story teller, and an overall entertaining person to interact with.

I’m not just paying for a haircut, it’s an experience that’s worth every penny.

Re: Anyone else witnessing a panic inside NLP orgs of big tech companies?

#497

Post by carlosjobim » Fri, Mar 17, 2023, 7:37 PM UTC

dogcomplex wrote: post #153

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #119

Wow - this is just wild. I've seen lots of arguments around "AI won't take everyone's job, it will just open up new areas for new jobs." Even if you take that with the benefit of the doubt (which I don't really think is warranted): 1. You don't need to take everyone's job. You just need to take a shitload of people's jobs. I think a lot of our current sociological problems, problems associated with wealth inequality,…

It is very obvious there is a mass unemployment wave coming - or at least a mass "retraining" wave, though the new jobs "teaching AIs" or whatever remain to be seen. I hope everyone currently just questioning whether this will happen now is prepared to state it with conviction in the coming months and fight for some sort of social protection program for all these displaced people, because the profits from this new wo…

There should be no tax payer money to these people. AI can never perform physical labour, so there is still a market for physical labour open for those replaced by AI. There will still be people working physical jobs as there are today, and you demand that they support those who are too lazy to work a physical job? No, they have to work as well.

Everybody who doesn't have to do physical labour - including me - should be happy and grateful for that privilege - not try to rob even more from physical labourers, who in the end, create everything.

Re: Anyone else witnessing a panic inside NLP orgs of big tech companies?

#498

Post by Kelamir » Fri, Mar 17, 2023, 7:58 PM UTC

xp84 wrote: post #179

vkazanov wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The secret is that there are no grammars in our brains. Rules are statistical, not precise. Rules, idioms are fluid and... statistical. We're a bit more specialised than these new models. But that's it, really.

^ This. I think the more we internalize the fact that we're also basically LLMs, the more we'll realize that there likely isn't some hard barrier beyond which no AI can climb. If you watch the things kids who are learning language say, you'll see the same kinds of slip-ups that belie the fact that they don't yet understand all the words themselves, but nobody thinks that 2-year-olds aren't people or thinks they will…

On one hand, considering our current understanding, one could say that that's a good analogy for our brain; on the other, it reminds me of the fact that people in the past used to think that their thinking was akin to the work of a steam engine. A number of expressions in English language refer to the fact, such as "cool off".

Re: Anyone else witnessing a panic inside NLP orgs of big tech companies?

#499

Post by carlosjobim » Fri, Mar 17, 2023, 8:05 PM UTC

shswkna wrote: post #315

dr_dshiv wrote: post #270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Looking around here in Amsterdam, there is a lot of work to be done. And all the places that aren’t as nice, there is a LOT of work to be done. Computational irreducibility combined with human insatiability combined with ethics entails: a lot of work to be done. Everyone needs to get to work, we aren’t done yet. If robots could do all the work… well, god bless. There is SO much work to do. That makes me think the iss…

I wonder why not more people are seeing it from this angle. My tech company is in southern africa, and I struggle to find the talent to fit my customers / the market’s needs. We can’t compete with salaries in the US or western countries in general. Now, my average tech staff can actually solve challenging coding problems that before could only be done by the few talented ones. It does not solve all shortcomings, but…

Why do you say you can't compete with Western salaries? If your customers don't want to pay what it takes, why the hell would it be your potential employees' responsibility to reduce their salary so you can offer this bargain? And since you are in tech, you can sell to the whole world. If your business can't get enough profit to pay for your workers, then the company should shut down the business as a failure.

Re: Anyone else witnessing a panic inside NLP orgs of big tech companies?

#500

Post by carlosjobim » Fri, Mar 17, 2023, 8:12 PM UTC

achr2 wrote: post #273

layer8 wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think it’s really because “the machine is doing most of the work”, but because there’s no good way for clients to assess the quality of the supplemental human work, and therefore the market gets flooded with subpar translators who do the task sloppily on the cheap, in a way that still passes as acceptable.

Which is exactly what this new breed of AI does - create a facsimile that is good enough to devalue the human equivalent.

AI translation is good enough to get business done. And it is instant, which opens up completely new opportunities and markets. Getting e-mail in a foreign language, translating it, writing a response, translating that back and closing a deal. Using a human translator would take much more time, because they cannot always be on call.

An adequate AI translation is a lot better than no translation.