China’s Xi to meet Putin as Beijing seeks bolder global role
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Re: China’s Xi to meet Putin as Beijing seeks bolder global role
#2[dead]
Re: China’s Xi to meet Putin as Beijing seeks bolder global role
#3There’s a dead comment that says “Watching the collapse of the USA as a global super power. Neat.”
What I think is more interesting is we’re reverting back from the unusual situation of having a single axis of power (USA) back to a more natural state of multiple “superpowers”. Personally I find this a good thing as the US became a super power BECAUSE there were other great powers (UK, Spain, Germany, USSR, etc.) and we just did things better. Without any real competition we’ve stagnated and having some competitors will do us more good than harm in the long term in my opinion.
Re: China’s Xi to meet Putin as Beijing seeks bolder global role
#4There’s a dead comment that says “Watching the collapse of the USA as a global super power. Neat.” What I think is more interesting is we’re reverting back from the unusual situation of having a single axis of power (USA) back to a more natural state of multiple “superpowers”. Personally I find this a good thing as the US became a super power BECAUSE there were other great powers (UK, Spain, Germany, USSR, etc.) and…
Russia is not competition. Between their structural demographics, brain drain, and economic decline due to sanctions, it’s very likely we see another fracturing USSR style when Putin dies (perhaps sooner, depending on what transpires as part of their Ukraine conflict). Not quite as bad as Somalia, but also no longer superpower potential.
China still has some life left in them, but they missed escape velocity before they got old as a nation. They will slowly have more weight to drag as their working age population declines, no one pretends there will be future fools to buy overinflated, poorly built real estate (which is the primary savings and investment vehicle for the populace), and the elderly population quickly grows.
What the US has going for it is one of the slower fertility rate decline trajectories and some semblance of an environment where innovation can occur. You don’t have to outrun the bear, only your slowest friend.
Re: China’s Xi to meet Putin as Beijing seeks bolder global role
#5There’s a dead comment that says “Watching the collapse of the USA as a global super power. Neat.” What I think is more interesting is we’re reverting back from the unusual situation of having a single axis of power (USA) back to a more natural state of multiple “superpowers”. Personally I find this a good thing as the US became a super power BECAUSE there were other great powers (UK, Spain, Germany, USSR, etc.) and…
Russia is not competition. Between their structural demographics, brain drain, and economic decline due to sanctions, it’s very likely we see another fracturing USSR style when Putin dies (perhaps sooner, depending on what transpires as part of their Ukraine conflict). Not quite as bad as Somalia, but also no longer superpower potential. China still has some life left in them, but they missed escape velocity before t…
Yes in 2023 the US still stands at the top but it’s not a guaranteed future. To maintain that status requires maintenance and discipline.
If you can do 9 laps in the time your competitors do 2 then it’s easy to stagnate. You can say, “why spend all this effort to do be able to do 9 laps, I only need to do 5 to still stay way ahead”. So you take your foot off the gas and start to coast. However if your competitors start creeping up, they start doing 3…4… now there is incentive to maintain your lead or even grow your lead more.
Additionally the US is not immune to the unpredictable. What if we get another dust bowl? Energy system collapse? Civil war? These things can chip away at our “lead” if we are inattentive and ill prepared.
Re: China’s Xi to meet Putin as Beijing seeks bolder global role
#6I don't think China will achieve a "bolder global role" by being mealy-mouthed on Ukraine. They can let Russia distract the West, but that doesn't really bolster their position.
They probably consider Ukraine a border skirmish beneath their notice, and they're probably right. But that's just it: Russia is reduced to attacking vastly smaller neighbors, and looking pretty stupid in the process. Russia isn't a world power, and it does China little good to snuggle up to them.
I don't see this as a real power play for them. They can gain access to Russia's mineral resources, which is a boon, but not really a "bold global role". It's just ordinary industrial noodling about, of less importance than what they're doing in Africa and possibly Latin America.
Those are genuine opportunities to play a global game. With Russia they just look weak on a chance to play a real global role. If they really wanted to throw their weight around, they'd tell Putin to end the war, and gain a ton of international respect -- or at least fear.
Re: China’s Xi to meet Putin as Beijing seeks bolder global role
#7[dead]