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Facebook to File for IPO Next Week

mashable.com

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Re: Facebook to File for IPO Next Week

#41

Post by draggnar »

samstave wrote: post #33
RuggeroAltair wrote: post #28

Well, honestly I think that buying Facebook shares right now is a high risk move. While it is possible maybe to forecast some ups and downs in the immediate following days, if the evaluation actually goes to 100 billions it'd look scary to me. I'm not saying that Facebook is dying or that it's gonna die anytime soon, but I am not able to foresee any significant growth. The article compared, with sort of negative term…

My (sure to be wrong) Facebook predictions: * The Facebook Phone * The Facebook Netbook * Major user datamining product sales to global governments * Acquiring binge (gaming, education (I think they will go for Khan Academy) * video hosting * Their own voip platform Facebook still has a lot of room to innovate, not that they would necessarily be successful in each iteration. But I would say that the number one thing…

if only zynga was so smart to make fun learning games instead of hamster cages

Re: Facebook to File for IPO Next Week

#42

Post by byrneseyeview »

senthilnayagam wrote: post #16

IPO is inevitable but timing is not right, groupon, zynga, LinkedIn, pandora are all trading at very low valuations and so is investor sentiment

GRPN: 9.5X sales

ZNGA: 6.5X sales

LNKD: 16.2X sales

P: 8.7X sales

S&P 500: 1.3X sales.

It appears that valuations are very high right now. The stocks are down from their peaks—-in other words, investors are not at a record level of optimism about these companies. But a fair assessment is that they've gone from "Wildly optimistic" to "Optimistic."

Re: Facebook to File for IPO Next Week

#46

Post by r00fus »

rplnt wrote: post #37
RuggeroAltair wrote: post #28

Well, honestly I think that buying Facebook shares right now is a high risk move. While it is possible maybe to forecast some ups and downs in the immediate following days, if the evaluation actually goes to 100 billions it'd look scary to me. I'm not saying that Facebook is dying or that it's gonna die anytime soon, but I am not able to foresee any significant growth. The article compared, with sort of negative term…

> Wall Street made a mistake with Google, since now their shares now are worth 5 times as much as they were at the opening. August 2004: Gold $405 Google $85/share (thought it was $100/share, huh) Now: Gold $1735 Google $576/share 1735/405 ~= 4.27 85*4.27 ~= 364 So no, Google's shares are not worth 5 times more. They value went up some 50% in six years, which is great but nothing scary.

Once I can buy food directly with my 1oz of gold, I'll buy your gold-based-valuation argument.

Comparing one asset (share of GOOG) vs. another, namely, gold is silly when you contrast to assigning currency value.

Last I checked, food hasn't become 4x more expensive, so things still revolve around currency (or currencies), not the value of gold.

Re: Facebook to File for IPO Next Week

#47

Post by CyrusL »

rplnt wrote: post #37
RuggeroAltair wrote: post #28

Well, honestly I think that buying Facebook shares right now is a high risk move. While it is possible maybe to forecast some ups and downs in the immediate following days, if the evaluation actually goes to 100 billions it'd look scary to me. I'm not saying that Facebook is dying or that it's gonna die anytime soon, but I am not able to foresee any significant growth. The article compared, with sort of negative term…

> Wall Street made a mistake with Google, since now their shares now are worth 5 times as much as they were at the opening. August 2004: Gold $405 Google $85/share (thought it was $100/share, huh) Now: Gold $1735 Google $576/share 1735/405 ~= 4.27 85*4.27 ~= 364 So no, Google's shares are not worth 5 times more. They value went up some 50% in six years, which is great but nothing scary.

It's weird that you critiqued his analysis by using gold, which makes no sense for comparison. You might have strong feelings about unbacked paper money, but that doesn't make comparing with gold a sound financial model.

  August 2004:
  
  Orange Juice Concentrate Futures $61
  Google $85/share
  
  Now:
  Orange Juice Concentrate Futures $211
  Google $576/share
  
  211/61 ~= 3.45
  85*4.27 ~= 293.25

Re: Facebook to File for IPO Next Week

#48

Post by Steko »

rplnt wrote: post #37
RuggeroAltair wrote: post #28

Well, honestly I think that buying Facebook shares right now is a high risk move. While it is possible maybe to forecast some ups and downs in the immediate following days, if the evaluation actually goes to 100 billions it'd look scary to me. I'm not saying that Facebook is dying or that it's gonna die anytime soon, but I am not able to foresee any significant growth. The article compared, with sort of negative term…

> Wall Street made a mistake with Google, since now their shares now are worth 5 times as much as they were at the opening. August 2004: Gold $405 Google $85/share (thought it was $100/share, huh) Now: Gold $1735 Google $576/share 1735/405 ~= 4.27 85*4.27 ~= 364 So no, Google's shares are not worth 5 times more. They value went up some 50% in six years, which is great but nothing scary.

He means in real people's dollars not Ron Paul bucks.

Re: Facebook to File for IPO Next Week

#49

Post by sawyer »

r00fus wrote: post #46
rplnt wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Wall Street made a mistake with Google, since now their shares now are worth 5 times as much as they were at the opening. August 2004: Gold $405 Google $85/share (thought it was $100/share, huh) Now: Gold $1735 Google $576/share 1735/405 ~= 4.27 85*4.27 ~= 364 So no, Google's shares are not worth 5 times more. They value went up some 50% in six years, which is great but nothing scary.

Once I can buy food directly with my 1oz of gold, I'll buy your gold-based-valuation argument. Comparing one asset (share of GOOG) vs. another, namely, gold is silly when you contrast to assigning currency value. Last I checked, food hasn't become 4x more expensive, so things still revolve around currency (or currencies), not the value of gold.

Since when can you buy food in exchange for stocks?

Re: Facebook to File for IPO Next Week

#50

Post by guan »

ojbyrne wrote: post #7
pilom wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The founders and everyone else with current equity in Facebook need a liquidity event. They are all collectively sitting on $100 Billion worth of value but right now the only way for them to see anything from that value is to collect their share of the profits (if Facebook is even distributing profits as opposed to rolling them into future growth spending). The IPO gives them a chance to actually collect some cash fo…

My understanding is that the IPO is because of the 500 shareholder rule: http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/01/03/facebook-and-the-500-...

The 500 shareholder rule requires the companies covered to register with the SEC, but not necessarily to publicly list their stock. They could register and stay private.

However, registration means that they have to publish almost the same information as public companies do and be subject to many of the same regulations. Since there are some benefits to going public, such as liquidity for current shareholders, few companies choose to register and stay private for very long.

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