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Anyone else witnessing a panic inside NLP orgs of big tech companies?

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Re: Anyone else witnessing a panic inside NLP orgs of big tech companies?

#421

Post by Apocryphon »

eggsmediumrare wrote: post #344
izacus wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uh-huh. How's them NFTs and Blockchain doing the watershed world changin these days?

Your comment seems almost intentionally obtuse... How's them internet and smartphones doing the watershed world changing these days?

Well, pursuant to the original discussion:

(2009) https://www.computerworld.com/article/2525229/study--interne...

(2015) https://venturebeat.com/mobile/mobile-technology-has-created...

(2021) https://www.iab.com/news/study-finds-internet-economy-grew-s...

Re: Anyone else witnessing a panic inside NLP orgs of big tech companies?

#422

Post by 1attice »

WalterBright wrote: post #417
1attice wrote: post #402

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You still haven't stepped away from historical induction -- your argument still depends on this time not being radically different than last time. There are good reasons -- presented everywhere, right now -- to suppose that this time is substantively different. Sundar Pichai called the invention of AI the most important thing humanity has worked on -- more important than fire, or the alphabet -- and I share his view.…

Non-productive work is exactly what breaking a window and then fixing it is, as well as doing work that is far better done by machine. As to distribution of economic fruits, as I mentioned before, replacing labor with machines made the US the most prosperous country in history, along with the richest poor people.

Non-productive work is not destructive work -- again, Keynes ditches.

Your country, the USA, is very close to system collapse because of its inequal distribution of fruits. I daresay it makes good popcorn-time.

Re: Anyone else witnessing a panic inside NLP orgs of big tech companies?

#423

Post by pixl97 »

anileated wrote: post #269
hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #119

Wow - this is just wild. I've seen lots of arguments around "AI won't take everyone's job, it will just open up new areas for new jobs." Even if you take that with the benefit of the doubt (which I don't really think is warranted): 1. You don't need to take everyone's job. You just need to take a shitload of people's jobs. I think a lot of our current sociological problems, problems associated with wealth inequality,…

> The state of AI progress makes it impossible for humans in many fields to keep up The way it works, someone would have to produce more original training data in the first place. In long term, it is AI that has to keep up, not the other way around. > wealth inequality Microsoft, OpenAI run closed for-profit LLMs that are inherently only possible thanks to creative work of all the people that might stand to lose jobs…

If you think the IP law that is already making the rich even richer is what's going to save us you're highly confused.

And if you think that AI is going to stay at LLMs and not eventually evolve into self learning/self modifying systems you are shortsighted.

Re: Anyone else witnessing a panic inside NLP orgs of big tech companies?

#424

Post by pixl97 »

oska wrote: post #410
xp84 wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Presumably it will improve the same way humans did -- once it's roughly on par with us it'll be just as capable of innovating and trying new things. The only difference is that for humans, trying a truly new approach to something isn't really done that often by most. "GPT-9" might regularly and automatically try recomputing all the "tricky problems" it remembers from the past with updated models, or with a few tweake…

> once it's roughly on par with us it'll be just as capable of innovating and trying new things This is complete nonsense. An LLM has no ability to innovate or 'try new things'.

I keep seeing people post a line like this and it makes about zero sense to me...

Just what the shit do you think Google/Microsoft/Amazon are pouring billions of dollars into machine learning/AI for? The first one that creates a self improving-self learning machine wins the game (or destroys the earth with a paperclip maximizer).

You and your human intelligence are not magic. You're biological hardware and software that a lot of people are spending a lot of time and effort on reproducing in a digital format.

Re: Anyone else witnessing a panic inside NLP orgs of big tech companies?

#425

Post by pixl97 »

WalterBright wrote: post #358
veqq wrote: post #263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That was very bad for the weavers. Well earning middle class jobs were replaced by toiling in the mills, It then took a few generations for the work act to put a 10hr maximum workday etc. The luddites were trying to defend their livelihoods, communities etc. It's the same rational thing people are looking at now: How to survive

Consider how expensive textiles were before weaving machines. People wore their one set of clothes until they disintegrated. Fast forward to today. I received a solicitation for a charity in the mail the other day. They enclosed pictures of the poor kids. The kids were all wearing fashionable, spotless clothes in perfect condition. That's what industrial textile machines gave us.

And the luddites still starved to death in the street... tell me exactly what we're doing, especially in the US, to avoid the luddites 2.0?

Re: Anyone else witnessing a panic inside NLP orgs of big tech companies?

#426

Post by pixl97 »

moffkalast wrote: post #220
msm_ wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You joke, but an economy that is 97% artists (aka content creators) sounds... good? Isn't this the utopic end goal after we automate the scarcity out of our lifes?

In theory it's great, in practice... who knows. The cynic in me would expect it to go worse than anyone could ever imagine. If everything is automated, why do you still need humans?

We have more technology and more stuff than ever, yet it seems we've accomplished about zero in solving the human problems of greed and narcissism.

Ted Faro is alive today. We just aren't sure which of the FRANK'S he's at.

Re: Anyone else witnessing a panic inside NLP orgs of big tech companies?

#427

Post by pixl97 »

WalterBright wrote: post #360
1attice wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This hoary take irks me. There were still places for human endeavour to go when the looms were automated. That is no longer the case. Think of it instead as cognitive habitat. Sure, there has been habitat loss in the past, but those losses have been offset by habitat gains elsewhere. This time, I don't see anywhere for habitat gains to come, and I see a massive, enormous, looming (ha!) cognitive habitat loss. -- EDIT…

> the same will not be true this time This prediction has occurred with every technology revolution. It hasn't been borne out yet. > the sort of undergrad maneuver It's a variation of the broken window fallacy.

Dinosaurs also survived a very long time, up till the moment they didn't.

And yea you can say that birds are dinosaurs but the transition was very messy.

Re: Anyone else witnessing a panic inside NLP orgs of big tech companies?

#428

Post by pixl97 »

veqq wrote: post #275
salad-tycoon wrote: post #245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not just sci fi. It’s has already happened in past with construction. Things like pyramids and certain cathedrals and what not are no longer possible even with machines. At least this is what I’ve read and heard, I’m not actually an engineer or architect. Tangent, I’m looking for some sci fi about this topic. Any suggestions?

No. Things like Greek fire or Roman cement aren't possible - because we don't know the precise mixture or formulation involved. Many old descriptions mean we don't know how to do it, because they are very vague. But we can technically do much better waterproof concrete or whatever - however our incentives are also not aligned in the same ways. Here's a tangential link to monks building a Gothic cathedral with modern…

Actually we've recreated Roman concrete just recently. It appears a quicklime like substance in the concrete gives it a self healing property l

Re: Anyone else witnessing a panic inside NLP orgs of big tech companies?

#429

Post by unmole »

ChancyChance wrote: post #268
aleph_minus_one wrote: post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's really striking though that a person graduating high school in say, 1970, could easily pick from a number of career choices even without doing college or even learning an in-demand trade, like plumbing, welding, etc. [...] Those are the days that are super gone Isn't this rather a strong argument for the claim that what high school as of today teaches is a strong mismatch with what the labour market demands? I…

I think there is a risk to the trades as well. Tradesman service prices are skyrocketing, too. With fewer people able to hire them because they cannot afford it, won't trade jobs fall as well?

> won't trade jobs fall as well?

Why won't tradesman cut their prices?

Re: Anyone else witnessing a panic inside NLP orgs of big tech companies?

#430

Post by pixl97 »

mostlysimilar wrote: post #131
jgust wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Presumably this problem is solved with technology improvements or the need is recognized to hire experts capable of generating high quality training material. In either situation, there's going to be extreme discomfort.

GPT is good because of collective knowledge, lots of data. What do you have in mind by "hire experts"? Isn't that what we have now? Many experts in many fields, hired to do their work. Cut this number down and you reduce training data.

You also may underestimate how quickly that AI could pass expert level. The experts out there still have many years of life left so they won't be disappearing soon. If we get self improving/self training AI sooner than later then, we'll humans won't be the experts.
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