Earlier quoted context omitted.
conformal prediction
Predicting a set of answers to some confidence interval would still result in hallucinated answers.
low probability answers get shot to a human and reviewed for model improvement.
Anyone else witnessing a panic inside NLP orgs of big tech companies?
381–390 of 527 posts
Re: Anyone else witnessing a panic inside NLP orgs of big tech companies?
#382Wow - this is just wild. I've seen lots of arguments around "AI won't take everyone's job, it will just open up new areas for new jobs." Even if you take that with the benefit of the doubt (which I don't really think is warranted): 1. You don't need to take everyone's job. You just need to take a shitload of people's jobs. I think a lot of our current sociological problems, problems associated with wealth inequality,…
Isn't this just a specific case of the general risk of devoting your career to pushing the envelope (science/research/business, etc)? You can work 30 years on a problem, finally come out with a solution only to find you're a week late and someone already published/patented exactly what you independently came up with. Then the only thing you have to show for your 30 years of work is everyone calling you a copycat. Weren't there other physicists like a week behind Einstein with relativity? And probably tons of other examples.
Re: Anyone else witnessing a panic inside NLP orgs of big tech companies?
#383Earlier quoted context omitted.
> the same will not be true this time This prediction has occurred with every technology revolution. It hasn't been borne out yet. > the sort of undergrad maneuver It's a variation of the broken window fallacy.
> This prediction has occurred with every technology revolution. It hasn't been borne out yet. So what? You are performing 'induction from history', which is possibly the hand-waviest possible means of estimating what is next to occur. Discontinuities occur. Fire gets tamed. Alphabets get invented. What went before is only a solid guide to the future absent any major disruption to the status quo . There is no a-prior…
> which is possibly the hand-waviest possible means of estimating what is next to occur
The "this time it's gonna be completely unlike anything seen before!" is much more suspect.
> fleshing out your position here
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parable_of_the_broken_window
The parallels with your theory are unmistakable. Prosperity doesn't come from jobs that are little more than make-work.
Re: Anyone else witnessing a panic inside NLP orgs of big tech companies?
#384Earlier quoted context omitted.
Only about 1% of workers are on minimum wage, you wouldn't expect an average lifestyle from that.
The comment I was replying to stated that that lifestyle is achievable for traditionally minimum wage (or close to it) jobs as long as you choose to live in a small city though
[deleted]
Re: Anyone else witnessing a panic inside NLP orgs of big tech companies?
#385Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think you and the one you're replying to are both very right. Yes, more of this money is going, instead of middle-class workers, straight to the capital class who own the "machines" that do the work people used to do. Except instead of it being a factory that makes industrial machines owned by some wealthy industrialist, the machines are things like Google and AWS and the owners are the small number of people with…
Look .. I am one of the working class here. But I gotta point out. Our standard of living is far superior to someone living in 1970 when it comes to stuff/technology. The stuff is cheaper because of China/globalization. The tech is there because we outsourced production and kept specializing the work force. I don't think UBI is the solution. Nor is squeezing people more than they are being squeezed. Efficiency and pr…
It's not about our "standard of living", it's more about class mobilization. If you were born poor, you could still get a job at McDonalds, go to college on those wages, and buy a home/start a family and live middle class easily, if not upper-middle class if you chose a high-earnings potential career.
Today, that's close to impossible unless you take student loans, go through the gauntlet of getting a higher paying job, and then have to grapple with home prices assuming you don't live in a place with reasonably affordable home ownership.
If you think the DMV and government offices are "make-work" then we need to start with cutting military spending because it's the biggest "make-work" government program we have that the vast majority of U.S. spending goes to.
Re: Anyone else witnessing a panic inside NLP orgs of big tech companies?
#386Earlier quoted context omitted.
That is not how it works at all. You won't get hired if you don't have the academic pedigree in the first place. That means a completed Ph.D and good publications in good journals.
As much as I'd wish to say "you're wrong, people care about intelligent, passionate people who do great work, not PhDs" you're right about much of the work out there. We've tried many time to work with CSIRO (the NSF of Australia) and it's fallen flat. They love impressive resumes and nothing else. I'm having a chat with their "Director of ML" who's never heard of the words "word2vec" or "pytorch" before. (And I'm a…
> Director of ML" who's never heard of the words "word2vec" or "pytorch" before
Reminds me of Computer Security academic and professional pedigree where these people aren't even programmers
Re: Anyone else witnessing a panic inside NLP orgs of big tech companies?
#387Earlier quoted context omitted.
Something curious that I've noticed is that the people who I see that are MOST excited are in tech. When I show ChatGPT to a lay person they don't really care. When I show it to a professional copywriter they say that if they submitted this content to a client they would lose the client. I'm reminded of when my son was learning to talk and everything he said seemed brilliant and coherent to me. To any stranger it sou…
You should speak to some teachers - or at least school students. I guarantee students are more excited about it than tech people because they are using it to successfully pass assignments.
The system gave them work to keep them busy, now its been automated and keeps the system busy. I only regret it didn't exist when I was in school.
Re: Anyone else witnessing a panic inside NLP orgs of big tech companies?
#388Earlier quoted context omitted.
Hmm. Hypothetically if a human on first line help desk gives advice that is so completely bad as to be a crime, are they liable or the company? Because I guess a chat-bot would definitely not be liable.
How often is your fast food order 100% correct?
Sometimes they accidentally include tomatoes but they rarely include bombs.
Re: Anyone else witnessing a panic inside NLP orgs of big tech companies?
#389The PR folks at my current company are in full panic mode on Linkedin, judging from the passive-aggressive tone of their posts (sometimes very nearly begging customers not to use ChatGPT and friends). They fully understand that LLMs are stealing lunch money from established information retrieval industry players selling overpriced search algorithms. For a long time, my company was deluded about being protected by ins…
How did GPS tracking companies survive Google and Google Maps? I think there will probably be many niches to explore even as the big names work hard to compete and eventually commoditize LLMs
I haven't heard the name TomTom in over a decade.
Re: Anyone else witnessing a panic inside NLP orgs of big tech companies?
#390I look at it the other way. Much of what people use GPT-4 can be done better (with a little more work) with transformer models that are specialized with the task. Things that were a struggle 5 years ago are about to be easy.
Definitely true for GPT-3, but after using GPT-4, I am not so sure. I am sure there are cases where a specialized NLP model can beat GPT-4, but I think they might be in the minority now. Whether I tried summarization, data extraction, or code generation, GPT-4 just kinda worked.