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Banking in uncertain times

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Re: Banking in uncertain times

#11

What I still do not understand is why the whole SVB episode isn't a bailout and didn't just introduce much more risk into the system. Yes, the stock went to 0 and investors did not get compensated (if they didn't already cash out when they saw it coming due to inside information) but the gaping hole in the books was filled due to government intervention and explicitly lifting the 250K FDIC limit. Why would any bank l…

It's a bailout of the depositors not the bank.

Re: Banking in uncertain times

#12
post #6
post #3

First, the article is a great explanation of what's going on. "Maturity Transformation" explains the cause. "Trying to forestall a banking crisis" is a great discussion of the important next stage of the non-headline-grabbing solution. Just wondering about this "desert" word, in context: > I am very frustrated by political arguments about desert, which start with an enemies list and celebrate when the enemies suffer…

A deserving; that which makes one deserving of reward or punishment; merit or demerit; good conferred, or evil inflicted, which merits an equivalent return: as, to reward or punish men according to their deserts. "Just deserts" is a common phrase that uses it in the same way.

desert i don't think means deserving. It comes from the latin desertus which means to "make barren or empty/forsake". I think in this context it means to have something fail or be abandoned at a critical moment.

Re: Banking in uncertain times

#13
post #10

What I still do not understand is why the whole SVB episode isn't a bailout and didn't just introduce much more risk into the system. Yes, the stock went to 0 and investors did not get compensated (if they didn't already cash out when they saw it coming due to inside information) but the gaping hole in the books was filled due to government intervention and explicitly lifting the 250K FDIC limit. Why would any bank l…

> Why would any bank look at SVB and NOT think "oh, time to take more risk for more profit; the government will prop up the FDIC limit if we fail anyway". Because they don’t want the stock to go to 0? I think most businesses and investors would not want that. We’ve seen bank stocks drop, it is in those banks interest to show they’re not taking chances like SBV.

Then why is (was?) there a limit of 250k anyway?

Re: Banking in uncertain times

#14
post #13
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Why would any bank look at SVB and NOT think "oh, time to take more risk for more profit; the government will prop up the FDIC limit if we fail anyway". Because they don’t want the stock to go to 0? I think most businesses and investors would not want that. We’ve seen bank stocks drop, it is in those banks interest to show they’re not taking chances like SBV.

Then why is (was?) there a limit of 250k anyway?

Does it matter in regards to what I said?

Re: Banking in uncertain times

#15

What I still do not understand is why the whole SVB episode isn't a bailout and didn't just introduce much more risk into the system. Yes, the stock went to 0 and investors did not get compensated (if they didn't already cash out when they saw it coming due to inside information) but the gaping hole in the books was filled due to government intervention and explicitly lifting the 250K FDIC limit. Why would any bank l…

Wouldn’t the FDIC or whoever absorbs the treasury notes be able to get a majority of the money back? Less inflation, opportunity costs, and the like.

Re: Banking in uncertain times

#16
post #6
post #3

First, the article is a great explanation of what's going on. "Maturity Transformation" explains the cause. "Trying to forestall a banking crisis" is a great discussion of the important next stage of the non-headline-grabbing solution. Just wondering about this "desert" word, in context: > I am very frustrated by political arguments about desert, which start with an enemies list and celebrate when the enemies suffer…

A deserving; that which makes one deserving of reward or punishment; merit or demerit; good conferred, or evil inflicted, which merits an equivalent return: as, to reward or punish men according to their deserts. "Just deserts" is a common phrase that uses it in the same way.

[deleted]

Re: Banking in uncertain times

#17

What I still do not understand is why the whole SVB episode isn't a bailout and didn't just introduce much more risk into the system. Yes, the stock went to 0 and investors did not get compensated (if they didn't already cash out when they saw it coming due to inside information) but the gaping hole in the books was filled due to government intervention and explicitly lifting the 250K FDIC limit. Why would any bank l…

It is a a bailout, this time a bailout of unsecured investors of the bank that were holding deposits at the bank rather than shareholders. And yes though the line is being drawn today with investors vs. depositors, depositors are actually a form of unsecured investor.

As to why it doesn't introduce more risk, it very well could. So far they have either slowed down a train wreck or prevented one. Bank issues in the last week have seemed more tied to depositors getting spooked and withdrawing or transferring money, the real question is whether other banks are so full of unrealized losses that the shift from a market depositing $5T in newly printed money to an economy spending more than it earns will break the banks.

Re: Banking in uncertain times

#18

What I still do not understand is why the whole SVB episode isn't a bailout and didn't just introduce much more risk into the system. Yes, the stock went to 0 and investors did not get compensated (if they didn't already cash out when they saw it coming due to inside information) but the gaping hole in the books was filled due to government intervention and explicitly lifting the 250K FDIC limit. Why would any bank l…

Matt Levine's Money Stuff talked about this yesterday. I'll post a couple of the relevant paragraphs.

> The regulators’ response to SVB — guaranteeing all depositors, but also the Fed’s Bank Term Funding Program to finance other banks’ bond portfolios at par[7] — increases the value of other banks’ optionality, which encourages them to take more risk, because their deposits are safer. (I suppose this is the real moral hazard concern.) And so there should be more regulatory and supervisory changes to tamp down the other banks’ risks.

> [...]

> [T]he post-SVB actions have made bank deposits a lot safer, which is a nice windfall for the shareholders of every other regional bank that has a lot of losses on held-to-maturity securities. And so in exchange for that windfall the regulators should regulate those banks much more strictly, which will make them actually safer (and reduce the government’s exposure to their risks), but will also reduce their profitability.

Re: Banking in uncertain times

#19
post #3

First, the article is a great explanation of what's going on. "Maturity Transformation" explains the cause. "Trying to forestall a banking crisis" is a great discussion of the important next stage of the non-headline-grabbing solution. Just wondering about this "desert" word, in context: > I am very frustrated by political arguments about desert, which start with an enemies list and celebrate when the enemies suffer…

"desert" means something one deserves. You probably know it in the idiom "just deserts".

[deleted]

Re: Banking in uncertain times

#20
post #3

First, the article is a great explanation of what's going on. "Maturity Transformation" explains the cause. "Trying to forestall a banking crisis" is a great discussion of the important next stage of the non-headline-grabbing solution. Just wondering about this "desert" word, in context: > I am very frustrated by political arguments about desert, which start with an enemies list and celebrate when the enemies suffer…

[deleted]
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