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Bill Ackman: I expect there will be bank runs beginning Monday at non-SIB banks

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Re: Bill Ackman: I expect there will be bank runs beginning Monday at non-SIB banks

#3
post #2

Even though I dislike this guy, he is not wrong. First Republic is most certainly going into receivership tomorrow.

That's the rumor and I imagine they got to pull the same tricks as SVB as regards to buying risky MBS without alerting the FED. But is there any evidence to support this?

Re: Bill Ackman: I expect there will be bank runs beginning Monday at non-SIB banks

#5
This is not a contagion event, this is a "lots of banks were exposed to the same macro economic risk" event. It'll play out how it plays out, but a bailout of SVB's depositors (what he and others are explicitly arguing for with hysterics like this) will not have any effect. SVB's collapse is correlated, not causal.

Re: Bill Ackman: I expect there will be bank runs beginning Monday at non-SIB banks

#6
post #3
post #2

Even though I dislike this guy, he is not wrong. First Republic is most certainly going into receivership tomorrow.

That's the rumor and I imagine they got to pull the same tricks as SVB as regards to buying risky MBS without alerting the FED. But is there any evidence to support this?

Some data here: https://twitter.com/GRDecter/status/1634208651421310977

Re: Bill Ackman: I expect there will be bank runs beginning Monday at non-SIB banks

#9
post #3
post #2

Even though I dislike this guy, he is not wrong. First Republic is most certainly going into receivership tomorrow.

That's the rumor and I imagine they got to pull the same tricks as SVB as regards to buying risky MBS without alerting the FED. But is there any evidence to support this?

MBS are much safer today than pre GSE (government sponsored entities). SVB failed to hedge their assets.

The MBS will still be worth their face value at maturity.

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