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Yellen says government will help SVB depositors but rules out bailout

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Re: Yellen says government will help SVB depositors but rules out bailout

#671

This is a simple liquidity problem. SVB had the treasury bills and loan book to cover all the deposits. They just couldn’t access any of that money. The FDIC should take on the bills and loans, and pay out the cash now. They will collect the entire balance eventually and they have the benefit of time and I imagine they’re authorised to hold assets like this long-term (or do a cash swap with the fed, they have plenty…

> According to the press release, SVB had $206B in assets and $176B in deposits.

Those numbers are from December 2022. They had $161B in deposits prior to Thursday's $42B in withdrawals. And that $206B figure is somewhat fictional hold-to-maturity accounting. The $80B in 1.5% bonds aren't actually worth $80B at market prices.

They were shut down for being insolvent on Thursday ($950M in the hole). It's not just a liquidity problem.

Re: Yellen says government will help SVB depositors but rules out bailout

#672

I see a lot of unexpected saltiness and clear misconceptions in any thread about SVB. “Depositors shouldn’t get anything beyond the insured $250,000”. Then what do we do with the billions in remaining assets? Appropriate them, and leave small and mid businesses hanged to dry? “This is a bailout”. It would be if shareholders were to get their money back, which doesn’t seem likely. The government will use the bank asse…

I'm pretty baffled to see so much of this on HN. Like a whole lot of people here, I've worked at startups for my whole career. People here are effectively suggesting that I shouldn't get my paycheck and that the company I work for should lose most of its money because our CEO used a well-reputed bank? Absolutely wipe out the equityholders of SVB. They deserve nothing, because that's what you should end up with if you…

I second your point and add: what's at stake here is not just SVB's customers, but the reputation of the entire US Banking system.

The shareholders should lose all of their investment, that is a no-brainer, but the depositors should not lose 1 penny, and their funds be available on Monday morning.

Here's an overlooked deadline: 6:00 PM EST, that is when Sydney (Australia)'s stock market opens. If that opens a lot lower, it will be the start of a free-fall cascade of stock markets worldwide.

So, we have less than 5 hours as of this writing for an official FDIC/Federal Reserve statement.

Wait for it.

Re: Yellen says government will help SVB depositors but rules out bailout

#673
post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bailing out the owners is obviously completely out of the question, but why bail out the depositors beyond the guarantees they knew they were getting at the time? Funny how language is being used to frame all this. For depositors it's made whole , not bailed out , when of course it's no less a bail out.

It's a matter of differing expectations. When you purchase stock in a bank, there is a reasonable expectation that your investment could lose value. When you deposit money with a bank (in the United States in 2023), you basically never consider the possibility that you might not get it all back. You can certainly argue that the expectation isn't fair, but I'm pretty confident it's nearly universal.

> When you deposit money with a bank (in the United States in 2023), you basically never consider the possibility that you might not get it all back.

This is an assumption which desperately needs to change, in my opinion, otherwise the risk of bank runs will be a think ad infinitum.

Re: Yellen says government will help SVB depositors but rules out bailout

#674

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Before people get too excited about letting it all burn, I recommend everyone watch this talk by an economist on the 2008 recovery: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RrFSO62p0jk Spoiler alert (18:30): It was entrepreneurship that turned the economy around. Not fed policy. SVB put their deposits in US Treasury Bonds. Commonly regarded as the safest investment vehicle there is. Then the fed raised interest rates, complet…

US Treasury Bonds are one of the safest investment vehicles, IF you match the interest and maturity to your liabilities. You cannot go and buy bonds that will mature and give you 1% per annum in 10 years when you have a debtor awaiting payment in 90 days. That's the huge risk mismanagement SVB did. Having said that, I don't think startups will suffer big time - but they were the ones also who created the bankrun fuel…

One thing to remember about your last point is that the startups and VC’s that DIDN’T cause the bank run are the ones that will be hurt by this. So if anyone is in here thinking “they shouldn’t have tried to withdraw their money, thereby creating a bank run, if they didn’t want to lose their money!” You have to realize that there two separate groups of people here: the ones that withdrew their money and caused the bank run, and the other ones that didn’t cause the bank run and lost their money.

That said, I don’t blame anybody for causing the bank run. If I had a reason to believe that my personal bank might not be able to give me my money if I didn’t get it out right now, there is zero chance that I would leave my money there to vanish just to avoid causing a bank run for other people. Morals break down when my life savings and livelihood are on the line.

Re: Yellen says government will help SVB depositors but rules out bailout

#675

1. Executives of SVB receiving bonuses. 2. Depositors that withdrew their money 100%. 3. Depositors that will fall under FDIC and made whole by this. 4. Depositors that will receive X% of deposits (likely under 100%) 5. Debt and equity with SVB 6. American taxpayer. OK, I think every possible permutation of who owes who money has been explained in this thread. I personally would like to see a legal mechanism where gr…

The way to prevent bank runs is to prevent banks from becoming insolvent in the first place. Making it illegal to take funds out of an insolvent bank is not the answer.

Re: Yellen says government will help SVB depositors but rules out bailout

#676

Earlier quoted context omitted.

First of all, even if the company you work for goes bankrupt, you're very likely to still receive your salary, as debts to workers are the highest priority in any bankruptcy case. So the risk to workers' livelihoods is being way overblown. Of course, if a substantial amount of your compensation was company stock, you may lose a lot on that, but that is par for the course with stock. Second of all, the purpose of havi…

I'll probably get my next paycheck or two, but I'll lose my job. You're pretty clearly saying here that I should lose my job, along with many other people, because of the bank at which my company's cash is stored. > Perhaps they shouldn't keep money in the bank in the first place, but find other uses for them. I work at a small startup that's raised five million dollars. Not a huge amount of money, but obviously losi…

The company is unlikely to lose all but $250,000 as SVB (reportedly)still has plenty of assets it’s just some of the bonds they hold are under water due to interest rate rises

You should question why $5mn was kept in a normal bank (with an unusual customer profile) rather than being placed in money market funds etc., or why the company didn’t insure the funds above $250,000

Re: Yellen says government will help SVB depositors but rules out bailout

#677
post #534

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm pretty baffled to see so much of this on HN. Like a whole lot of people here, I've worked at startups for my whole career. People here are effectively suggesting that I shouldn't get my paycheck and that the company I work for should lose most of its money because our CEO used a well-reputed bank? Absolutely wipe out the equityholders of SVB. They deserve nothing, because that's what you should end up with if you…

> I'm pretty baffled to see so much of this on HN. HN comment quality, thoughtfulness, and etc seems to drop off with higher visibility…. and sadly generally too. The more visible the more comments resemble Reddit or the god awful knee jerk hot takes you get in local newspaper comment sections :( It’s a bummer as I’ve enjoyed the generally high comment quality on HN for a long time.

The parent comment was fine, it just sounds like you're upset about what they said rather than how they said it.

Re: Yellen says government will help SVB depositors but rules out bailout

#678
post #534

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm pretty baffled to see so much of this on HN. HN comment quality, thoughtfulness, and etc seems to drop off with higher visibility…. and sadly generally too. The more visible the more comments resemble Reddit or the god awful knee jerk hot takes you get in local newspaper comment sections :( It’s a bummer as I’ve enjoyed the generally high comment quality on HN for a long time.

I agree with you on this, but I'm thinking more as a matter of perspective. HN is just not a place where I expect to see vicious, anti-tech backlash given the demographics.

I agree with your specific example as well.

I think the demographics are changing, more so in higher visibility articles, but generally too.

I think the best part about HN has always been the comments discipline. People generally only respond when they have some knowledge (not just “I watched a YouTube video).

That has faded sadly.

Re: Yellen says government will help SVB depositors but rules out bailout

#679

I see a lot of unexpected saltiness and clear misconceptions in any thread about SVB. “Depositors shouldn’t get anything beyond the insured $250,000”. Then what do we do with the billions in remaining assets? Appropriate them, and leave small and mid businesses hanged to dry? “This is a bailout”. It would be if shareholders were to get their money back, which doesn’t seem likely. The government will use the bank asse…

I'm pretty baffled to see so much of this on HN. Like a whole lot of people here, I've worked at startups for my whole career. People here are effectively suggesting that I shouldn't get my paycheck and that the company I work for should lose most of its money because our CEO used a well-reputed bank? Absolutely wipe out the equityholders of SVB. They deserve nothing, because that's what you should end up with if you…

As a long-time tech person and someone who has started multiple companies, including one venture-backed one, I'm happy to explain why I think uninsured depositholders should not have their losses subsidized by taxpayers.

One, anybody with a bank account has heard about the FDIC and the FDIC insurance limits. Presumably anybody smart enough to raise millions of dollars know that if part of something is insured, the rest is uninsured. There are in fact good systemic reasons both for the FDIC to exist and for the limit to be high for individuals but low for companies.

Two, the tech industry, especially the VC-funded end, is forever crowing about the power of the marketplace. How regulation stifles valuable innovation. How government intervention is a problem, not a solution.

Three, among startups, market-driven disruption is practically a religion. Startups destroy existing companies all the time. Quite often it's an explicit goal, where startup X lists existing players A and B as companies whose lunches will get eaten because they are making bad choices.

Four, there has been endless puffery and chest-thumping among VCs and tech startups how their genius justifies pocketing billions and billions of dollars when times are good. Best and brightest, incredibly hard workers, blah blah blah. Including a special tax exemption for VCs, because they're just such amazing financial wizards.

Five, startup go under all the time. Which, having experienced it, definitely sucks. But when a startup goes under due to bad choices or bad luck, that's the game.

So when I put this together, I firmly believe that startups with bad treasury management should not be subsidized by taxpayers. If we're so smart and amazing that we get to reshape segments of the economy, we're smart enough to follow basic financial advice like "don't put all your eggs in one basket". If we choose to play the game that might make us rich, we should not suddenly complain about the rules when we lose.

In practice, the likely outcome here is that depositors either take no haircut or a modest one. Anybody going out of business because of that was already on the edge. And that will be partly because their investors will not see them as worthy of a bridge loan or an accelerated next round.

Which, again, sucks for the people involved. But it's not a problem for taxpayers to solve. If we're going to spend billions of dollars on improving the safety net, I think startups are way, way down the list of priorities.

Re: Yellen says government will help SVB depositors but rules out bailout

#680

I see a lot of unexpected saltiness and clear misconceptions in any thread about SVB. “Depositors shouldn’t get anything beyond the insured $250,000”. Then what do we do with the billions in remaining assets? Appropriate them, and leave small and mid businesses hanged to dry? “This is a bailout”. It would be if shareholders were to get their money back, which doesn’t seem likely. The government will use the bank asse…

I'm pretty baffled to see so much of this on HN. Like a whole lot of people here, I've worked at startups for my whole career. People here are effectively suggesting that I shouldn't get my paycheck and that the company I work for should lose most of its money because our CEO used a well-reputed bank? Absolutely wipe out the equityholders of SVB. They deserve nothing, because that's what you should end up with if you…

> Like a whole lot of people here, I've worked at startups for my whole career. People here are effectively suggesting that I shouldn't get my paycheck and that the company I work for should lose most of its money because our CEO used a well-reputed bank?

Cynicism reigns supreme on social media right now, and HN comments are a type of social media.

There is also a deeply engrained “us versus them” mentality baked into a lot of the anger. The SVB scenario has more people identifying the “us” part as taxpayers (who would presumably foot the bill for backstopping losses) and the “them” part as VCs and investors.

Interestingly, if this was rephrased as an “Ask HN” post where someone was concerned about their next paycheck because their startup’s bank failed, I suspect the sentiment would be completely reversed. The more relatable the story, the kinder the comments.

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