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How Climate Scenarios Lost Touch with Reality

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Re: How Climate Scenarios Lost Touch with Reality

#61

Post by omginternets »

wizofaus wrote: post #57
omginternets wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’ve substituted “climate change denialist” for “climate action denialist”. Why?

Only because I don't believe he's ever denied climate change was happening or that if it is it's not our fault, which are the usual first two phases of denialism.

I don’t follow. You’re responding to a point about the author not being a climate change denialist by saying that he doesn’t think action against climate change is justified.

What point are you actually trying to make? It seems like you’re trying to equate one with the other, especially given your novel use of the word “denialism”. I don’t want to put words in your mouth, but I’m still unclear on what exactly you are implying.

Re: How Climate Scenarios Lost Touch with Reality

#62

Post by randomluck040 »

mbgerring wrote: post #2

This is waaaaaaaaay too many words when all they want to say is “RCP8.5 is now unrealistic given progress towards climate goals, and the “business as usual” scenario should be updated in the next IPCC report”

Edited: the RCP8.5 seems to be the most fitting regarding historical data. There are also other RCPs for other scenarios as well.

Re: How Climate Scenarios Lost Touch with Reality

#63

Post by worik »

The article makes a newbie mistake: the job of the IPCC is not now, if it ever was, scientific. It is political.

Scientifically climate change has been a growing concern since at least 1972. In 1990 there was zero support politically for the sort of action that is now starting.

The IPCC's work still matters, the political changes are not bedded in ( see the GOP in USA that is still clinging to its old ideas, but not for much longer). But the urgent, political work it was established for is almost done.

They can take some credit if we save the world

Re: How Climate Scenarios Lost Touch with Reality

#64

Post by zweifuss »

HereIGoAgain wrote: post #40

Pretty good read. They bring up quite a few good points.

Why exactly is it bad science if the most pessimistic scenario is slightly more pessimistic than reality?

IPPC reports are too conservative because insufficient attention has been paid to the importance of tipping points, feedback loops, and outlier events forecasts. The nature of consensus building has tended to marginalize more extreme scenarios.

Humanity already has a non-zero probability that wars and general political trends will reverse technological progress and waste the resources needed to adapt to climate change and transform the economy. Then the RPC8.5 scenario might be too optimistic, not too pessimistic.

Re: How Climate Scenarios Lost Touch with Reality

#65

Post by rasengan0 »

Lost touch with reality?

Droughts, wildfires, hurricanes/typhoons seem as real to me as "scientists" continue to squabble. Critical viewpoints are integral to the "integrity of science", but without application/action where is the actual contribution?

Maybe the article authors are suggesting: just set at RCP2.6 or favor the IEA baseline range and call it a day? I would think they would lose funding, speaker fees, followers, etc...

One missing variable in the socioeconomic assumption input to RCP assessment is the proliferation of dis/mis information or lack of open data access.

As the west looks on, some global partners are displaying excellence in cooperative data sharing and full disclosure on consumption patterns to help inform policy development: https://youtu.be/gfIoS9NB0Wg

Stick that in RCP input.

Re: How Climate Scenarios Lost Touch with Reality

#66

Post by worik »

rasengan0 wrote: post #65

Lost touch with reality? Droughts, wildfires, hurricanes/typhoons seem as real to me as "scientists" continue to squabble. Critical viewpoints are integral to the "integrity of science", but without application/action where is the actual contribution? Maybe the article authors are suggesting: just set at RCP2.6 or favor the IEA baseline range and call it a day? I would think they would lose funding, speaker fees, fol…

> some global partners are displaying excellence in cooperative data sharing and full disclosure on consumption patterns to help inform policy development: https://youtu.be/gfIoS9NB0Wg

Are you serious?

Two tourists with anecdotes

The topic is science and data not tourist's reckons

Re: How Climate Scenarios Lost Touch with Reality

#67

Post by IngoBlechschmid »

fwungy wrote: post #35

How accurate are models of complex systems? Consider that if highly accurate models were really possible someone could make one that would accurately predict NFL game outcomes. When that happens we will know it because Sports Books would no longer take bets on NFL games. Sports Books profit because they get a slight statistical advantage which pays off due to bettor volume. So we know they can't make an accurately pr…

1. Climate is a long-term average. Long-time averages are much simpler to predict than individual outcomes. You cannot predict the result of a coin toss, but you can be reasonably confident that among 1000 tosses there will be between 400 and 600 occurrences of heads.

2. Scientists, especially young ones, have an incentive to challenge dominating scientific views because that is how you make yourself known in the scientific community. Being known can be transformed to getting the next academic position.

Re: How Climate Scenarios Lost Touch with Reality

#68

Post by Animats »

rcoveson wrote: post #6
Animats wrote: post #4

Reality is the past actuals. - Atmospheric CO2, 1960-now.[1] - Ocean temperature, 1880-now. [2] - Annual arctic sea ice minimum area, 1978-now. [3] [1] https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/ [2] https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/ [3] https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/5036

Warming that has occurred in the past is not disputed here.

The detail of the article, about four screens down, indicates that. The title and introduction do not.

Re: How Climate Scenarios Lost Touch with Reality

#69

Post by admax88qqq »

threeseed wrote: post #36
admax88qqq wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What makes those people frauds?

If your life is about in engaging in culture wars then you need enemies.

Is Bill Gate's life really all about engaging in culture wars?

I could see that argument moreso for Al Gore as he's a politician by trade but Gate's really?

And even then, where do you personally draw the line between "engaging in culture wars" and "advocating for something you believe in"

Re: How Climate Scenarios Lost Touch with Reality

#70

Post by nervlord »

rasengan0 wrote: post #65

Lost touch with reality? Droughts, wildfires, hurricanes/typhoons seem as real to me as "scientists" continue to squabble. Critical viewpoints are integral to the "integrity of science", but without application/action where is the actual contribution? Maybe the article authors are suggesting: just set at RCP2.6 or favor the IEA baseline range and call it a day? I would think they would lose funding, speaker fees, fol…

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